ACUS11 KWNS 142011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142010=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...far eastern Oregon...central Idaho...far
southwestern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142010Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage through the
afternoon, with marginal risk for strong to severe wind.

DISCUSSION...A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread
portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening, providing large-scale ascent for widely scattered thunderstorm development. Across portions of eastern Oregon into
central Idaho and western Montana, heating and cooling aloft should
support steepening lapse rates and MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg amid
30 kts of deep layer shear. With deeply mixed profiles, this will be
sufficient for a few instances of strong to severe wind and small
hail. Given the generally poor thermodynamic profiles, this risk
should remain fairly localized and as such a watch is not
anticipated.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5-a9QE7aAU9qo7k0n-ZuXZpSvVFyHcxqvlO03qWNUUjDgMMyKOewz-j_3hnbrv0CwlDMAWcQv= 2xgFJ6DKCAdTFWoSd8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 43981763 44751687 46431483 46601332 45691245 44031364
42821454 42261587 42151732 43101829 43661795 43981763=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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