ACUS11 KWNS 142029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142028=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota...far western Iowa...far
northeastern Nebraska...far western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142028Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for wind and hail to continue this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across portions of eastern South
Dakota into northern Nebraska has shown recent uptick in intensity,
with a few reports of severe gusts up to 50-60 mph near Watertown,
SD and Sioux City, IA. This activity is ongoing in the region of a
modest low-level jet and pocket of daytime heating where MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed. For now, it appears this activity
will stay fairly widely scattered amid generally weaker shear
profiles and in the wake of the morning MCV, and as such a watch is
unlikely.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ZTxsec-x4_kqGYuSWKZdZpgZIIxtr9iE9ja6NnB1-jMW-_92T7Ad3q4igJQA3kOUQFKmqRVf= Ia6ZKbsDDgfxn_ePYM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 45249799 45429765 45499699 45269649 44469619 43379602
42729621 42479647 42469702 42629833 42659844 42819910
43750014 44809962 45029852 45249799=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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