AWUS01 KWNH 181657
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-182256-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0477
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OH Valley...Northern Mid
Atlantic...Interior Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181656Z - 182256Z

Summary...Shallow thunderstorms are gradually expanding in
coverage and intensity across the Eastern OH Valley, Northern
Mid-Atlantic, and Interior Northeast. Periods of repeating cells
containing 1.5 to locally 2"/hr rainfall rates could support
additional isolated flash flooding this afternoon in light of
recent heavy rainfall in the region.

Discussion...Day Cloud Phase RGB and LightningCast data suggest
shallow thunderstorms across the Eastern OH Valley, Northern
Mid-Atlantic, and Interior Northeast are intensifying as an
extremely moist airmass destabilizes beneath eroding low-level
clouds. The most persistent cells were initially roughly along
I-80 in Western PA, which prompted several Flash Flood Warnings as
they repeated over an area impacted yesterday and realized
1.5-1.8"/hr rainfall rates per KCCX. Additional flooding was also
noted near Buffalo, NY as an axis of cells stalled and trained
overhead.

As highlighted in the 12Z soundings from PIT and IAD, the airmass
across the region remains very supportive for efficient warm rain
production in these cells, with saturated profiles containing
1.7-2.1" PWATs, 1000-2000 J/KG of MUCAPE, and warm cloud layers of 13,000-14,000 feet noted. Sufficient shear remains as well to
support at least loosely organized multicellular storm modes, with
20-35 kts depicted in recent mesoanalysis.

Over the next several hours, a general trend of expanding
multicells is expected as a weak shortwave over Western OH
approaches from the west amid continued surface heating. Westerly
steering flow should permit for periods of repeating cells,
although storm coverage should remain more scattered compared to
yesterday's event. As instability builds and additional cells
form, both the HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities show an
increasing likelihood of at least 1"/hr rates and 1-3 HR FFG
exceedance beginning around the 17-18z time frame. With FFGs in
the region as low as .25-1.5", additional isolated flash flooding
is possible as these cells expand and periodically repeat.

Asherman=20=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6uRcE_EgBXsLRi5pJ0sbzuWgV4XEYN7K2asNVaGFLKdKlAqkR5vEYo0cyJ488jl06vw3= a70HyzBBPh5lllBNkrsXG7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42617863 42507757 41357647 40507484 39587600=20
38627691 38617789 39237850 39597895 40118005=20
40778037 41508026 42247970=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181802
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0478
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Northeast IL (including the Chicago
Metro)...Southwest MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181800Z - 190000Z

Summary...Intense convective complex is translating through IL.
Scattered flash flooding -- some of which could be locally
significant in/near the Chicago metro -- is possible this
afternoon.

Discussion...Intense convective complex continues to track across
Central IL ahead of a well defined MCV located northeast of St.
Louis. The leading corridor of cells was along a NW-SE axis, and
generally forward propagating to the northeast at around 30-40
kts, with an area of showers and thunderstorms wrapping around the
northwest of the MCV, upstream of the forward propagating
activity. Max rainfall rates within this complex were generally on
the order of 1.5"/hr.

Recent mesoanalysis and GPS data suggest a very moist and unstable
airmass is advecting ahead of the complex, with 1.7-1.9" PWATS and
3000-4500 J/kg of MLCAPE depicted in the pre-convective
environment. Recent GOES-E DMW also placed the right entrance
region of a jet streak over Lake Michigan and Wisconsin to further
enhance forcing for ascent ahead of the MCV. As this complex
translates northeastward within 40-50 kts of effective shear,
multiple rounds of precipitation are possible in the MPD area from
1) individual cells within the right entrance region of the jet
streak, 2) along the leading edge of the forward propagating
component and 3) beneath the northwest flank of the MCV.

Over the next several hours, the HREF suggests increasing
probabilities of 2"/hr rainfall rates as this repeating of
precipitations occurs. Accordingly, scattered flash flooding may
result with the HREF suggesting localized rainfall amounts of 2-4"
may fall where these three rounds of precipitation can overlap.
Localized significant flash flooding is possible in sensitive
urbanized areas, including the Chicago metro.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_c3e9VqL6mdILTB0ccabE5kAdG9q2pzWJbWhDN8NMGVaFDbWGdLWh7lhddzJNCHTKwSK= XrJYzXylCmQoRpnUeG8TvWY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43698684 43628491 41858506 40788753 40498960=20
41379028 43198864=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182035
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-190200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0479
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Western NY...Northwest PA...Extreme Northeast OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182035Z - 190200Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely to continue as shortwave
approaches helping to expand convective coverage which will remain
slow moving and very efficient with 1.5-2"/hr rates and localized
totals to 3"+.

DISCUSSION...While the symmetric, mature main upper-low near
southern Lake Michigan dominates the GOES-E WV suite, there
remains a more subtle but similarly impactful compact wave
crossing central Lake Erie currently. This wave is providing
solid DPVA and enhanced west-southwesterly 20-25kts of inflow
while corralling highly anomalous sub-tropical moisture across the
Lower Great Lakes. A well defined surface front exists north of
the Lakes in the Ontario Peninsula and just north of the St.
Lawrence river Valley, but the cold lakes have provided strong
differential heating boundaries to help develop strong
thunderstorms earlier this afternoon. Given this upstream wave,
cells have been very slow moving to the northeast with overall
best motions driven by propagation/redevelopment along outflow
boundaries which have become numerous across the area of concern
(please see graphic for some deliniation).

Given the deep moisture over AoA 2" in Total PWat and deep warm
cloud layers near 12-14Kft; efficient rainfall production has
resulted in 2"/hr rates and numerous incidents of flash flooding.
This trend is likely to maintain itself through the next 3-4 hours
as outflows intersect seeking out remaining pockets of 2000 J/kg
unstable air pockets. Inflow from the southwest and some weak
isallobaric response has limited cell motions and with broader
slabs of ascent with merging boundaries/broader updrafts similar
1.5-2"/hr rates are likely to expand and perhaps intersect/overlap
with initial burst resulting in some localized totals to 3"+
further inducing other localized incidents of flash flooding
(especially in urban centers).

As the evening progresses, stronger convergence along the
shortwave trough axis now nearing the PA/OH state line, will act
as final bout merging and sweeping up the remaining active
convection. Simple mergers may further enhance sub-hourly rates.
As such, scattered to numerous incidents of focused/localized
flash flooding are considered likely through exhaustion of
instability and/or shortwave moves through from west to east.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6EH5Ic01KSZo8ndipk2DzepOHfl6LQgQ7QlgDXImhodUE5V0FdxSiNqp-Q9TU8Ir8Pzj= ujENHkb-Ylopuv45dV0U1bY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43617639 43217584 42617587 41987662 41567726=20
41167831 40957936 40858030 41088068 41858061=20
42447964 42897909 43387893 43407700=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182316
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0480
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Southern OH...Central KY...Middle TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182315Z - 190430Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage capable of locally
exceeding lower than normal hourly FFG due to well above normal
soil saturation. Hourly 1-2" totals and some possible short-term
storm scale interactions may allow for some isolated totals over
2-3", resulting in widely scattered low-end incidents of flash
flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic depicts a mature, strong but very
progressive squall line crossing eastern IND into OH. This line
has been fairly consistent in producing .5-1.25" totals along its
path through IND; however, this has not intersected areas of
recent saturation until moving into southwest/southern Ohio.=20
Here, 0-40cm relative soil saturation ratios are at or above 60%
which is well into the 90th to 99th percentile per NASA SPoRT LIS
products and this is more so south across much of KY into western
and Middle TN.=20

However, stronger surface to boundary layer convergence was
slightly weaker and could not break the cap across much of the
pre-frontal pressure trof/convergence boundary. Air remains very
unstable with MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg from Cincinnati across into
Western TN. Ample moisture in the low to mid 70s (Tds) and total
PWats of 1.75 to 1.9", suggest any thunderstorms to develop will
have capability of producing 1.5-2"/hr rates. VWP and RAP
analysis suggest as the MCV is lifting further north the winds had
not been strong enough or have sufficient directional convergence;
but recent trends suggest a slight increase in both wind speed as
the LLJ diurnally strengthens and a slight increase of about 10-15
degrees from 925-850mb has seen a steady southwestward expansion
of the deep moisture convergence axis into western and middle TN.=20
As such, individual cells have broken the cap through much of the
line and continue to expand as they progress eastward.=20

Further north into OH, stronger convergence/mature updrafts have
been been outdone by forward speeds to result in hourly FFG
exceedance, though as they reduce below 1.5" and forward
progression reduces slightly further from the lifting
shortwave/forcing increased duration suggests scattered incidents
of exceedance are possible. Further south, deeper layer steering
flow is a bit more west to east and slower by 5-10kts, also
supporting increased duration. Stronger upstream LLJ/moisture
convergence may also support flanking development within the storm
scale environment to further increase overall duration. Similarly
though, hourly rates of 1.5-2" are likely along the line with
sub-hourly totals expected to be at or slightly above scattered
along the line. As such, low-end flash flooding incidents are
becoming increasingly possible through the late evening/early
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OFUDBMGYjpw1V5tOuJZB-o5oYR3qQA9T73TnoqN69omVoVQ73dbVrDktZFeHaHUH4_t= dUfr4JMRYa4WRTZ_zJtw2WA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39948284 39728209 39078151 38158205 37428310=20
36678472 35418817 36328892 37788688 38748549=20
39238484 39838404=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190511
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0481
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern AR...Central/Western
TN...Southwest KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190510Z - 191030Z

SUMMARY...Some expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected over the next few hours. Some cell-training concerns
are expected, and with high rainfall rates, some isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a digging shortwave trough
across the Midwest, with the leading edge of height falls
impinging on the lower/middle MS Valley. This energy is beginning
to interact with a strong instability gradient that is in place
across central/eastern AR, western TN and parts of southwest KY.
MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg locally, and
despite the negative influence of boundary layer CIN, recent IR
satellite imagery shows cooling convective tops becoming better
established across eastern AR and into far western TN.

A modest southwest low-level jet currently oriented across the
region is expected to strengthen and become more convergent over
the next few hours and reach 30 to 40+ kts. This will strengthen
the moisture transport across the area, but will also foster
stronger low-level forcing into an area that is already unstable.

A combination of these factors will support some expansion of the
current convective activity, with heavy showers and thunderstorms
also becoming a bit better aligned with the deeper layer mean flow
which will support a cell-training threat. PWs are quite moist
with values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches based on 00Z RAOB soundings and
recent GPS-derived data. The CIRA-ALPW data shows a substantial
level of moisture concentrated in the mid-levels of the column
where much of the vertical ascent will be taking place.

This suggests convection capable of high rainfall rates that may
reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour which is generally supported by the
00Z HREF guidance. However, with the cell-training concerns, some
storm totals by dawn may reach 3 to 4+ inches. The HREF guidance
does show some low-end FFG exceedance probabilities, and thus the
expectation is that some isolated areas of flash flooding will be
possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6x3IJ-5nN7igBJDozH4IRYtGn08iky7e3IScL7prcbP_D_VoIzRoSIKCel1r5Bk8-U45= iuQXZhYPpLbcCDwcoK7oeuE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37368825 37328650 36598599 35558663 34808852=20
34389048 34589252 35559271 36148994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191001
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-191500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0482
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern AR...Southwest TN...Northern
MS...Northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191000Z - 191500Z

SUMMARY...A well-organized band of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to pose a threat for some additional flash flooding
going through the mid-morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
west to east oriented axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
extending from northeast AR through much of southwest TN and with
a portion of the line losing latitude and edging into northeast MS
and northern AL.

The cold-topped convection has been showing a considerable amount
of cell-training over the last couple of hours across southwest TN
as the activity becomes aligned with the deeper layer steering
flow. All of the convection continues to be facilitated by the
pooling of a very moist and unstable airmass that is in place
ahead of a shortwave trough advancing east toward the OH Valley
and Mid-South. MLCAPE values are rather impressive early this
morning across central to eastern AR and into southwest TN with a
corridor of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of CAPE aligned with a convergent
west-southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts.

This coupled with at least some modest shear will likely maintain
the convective organization of this linear MCS for at least a few
more hours. PWs are quite moist with values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches
based on recent GPS-derived data, and the depth of moisture
coupled with the instability and strength of the low-level jet
should maintain high rainfall rates that will likely be on the
order of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

The latest hires CAMs suggest some additional training of
convection may occur through mid-morning with the activity also
gradually settling farther south. This will allow for more areas
of eastern AR, northern MS and northern AL to get into some
heavier rainfall potential. In general across the Mid-South, an
additional 3 to 4 inches of rain will be possible, and this will
include southwest TN where there will be concerns for some of
these rains to impact the Memphis metropolitan area.

Given the additional rainfall potential over the next few hours,
some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__PQZVAc7m9l3XPWmUpSgYvESl4pTxh8ooWX-8ct4JKYvaUA2uKKz4Cv0g1ib_joNPJn= g4WAPY4qldNF9nrONsOJV7I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35609036 35538830 35008631 34088633 33638759=20
33628946 33849109 34299214 35259212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191521
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-191850-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0483
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AR...North-Central MS...Western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191520Z - 191850Z

Summary...Periods of training and repeating thunderstorms within a
persistent MCS will maintain the threat of isolated flash flooding
for at least the next three hours.

Discussion...Regional radar highlights a persistent MCS containing
a forward propagating component across Eastern MS and
North-Central AL, with upwind development occurring further west
along a slow moving cold pool. The alignment of these cells was
leading to periods of repeating and training across the
highlighted area, with 1.5-2.6"/hr rainfall rates estimated within
the most intense cells over North-Central MS.

The development of new cells upstream is likely tied to a
confluent low-level regime in the upwind portion of the cold pool
interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass characterized
by 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE (and minimal CIN), 1.8-1.9" PWATs, and
20-25 kts of effective shear to support new development of loosely
organized cells capable of continued 1.5-2.5"/hr rates.=20=20=20=20
Both the HREF and REFS suggest this training and repeating
activity will continue for at the next three hours -- albeit with
some uncertainty regarding the persistence owing to how CAMs have
struggled with the cold pool. However, the HREF and REFS suggest
localized amounts of 2-3 inches remain possible through 18z, which
could locally breach FFGs in the region and cause isolated flash
flooding.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5mFJOs-EveGwM4s_VAQ7n4yIwmDh1ab-i84SQ1MZp7fF9Sg21bRODP--wA9DlvNRKU2I= Or2tiZdo-e8JA9Tkzu1Re5g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34649171 34338950 33968828 33218711 32458722=20
32168815 32488964 33669159=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191809
FFGMPD NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ00= 0-KYZ000-200008-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0484
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians..Interior Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191808Z - 200008Z

Summary...Expanding coverage of brief but intense thunderstorms
with sub-hourly rainfall rates upwards of .50-1"/15 min could
cause isolated to scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Trends in visible satellite imagery area depict an
increasingly unstable PBL interspersed with intensifying clusters
of thunderstorms ahead an upper-trough and cold front over the OH
Valley.

While this activity organizes, a strengthening jet-streak over the
Interior Northeast is forecast to enhance southwesterly low-level
flow into the warm sector and yield 1.7-2" PWATs, 1000-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear across the region
over the next few hours. Accordingly, storms should intensify into
multicell clusters and supercells containing .5-1"/15 minute rain
rates embedded within linear segments along an ENE-SSW axis ahead
of the lee-trough and cold front -- refer to SPC MCD 1364 for the
latest on the severe threat with these storms.

While the scattered nature of the storms and progressive storm
motions should limit a prolonged flash flood threat, brief
training and repeating of these intense rates could easily breach
the low .25-1"/hr FFGs across the region. As such, the HREF and
REFS denote increasing probabilities of 1-3 HR FFG exceedance
beginning around 18-19z, which suggests an increasing risk of isolated-scattered flash flooding going forward today.

Asherman=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Bdmotk_OzDU9y-IVlXOkYLaAYyrOO725xTqPhsSZYgycWLao7WHU6MKZnsv8wNSg7pF= dM0CuarfZl7okdQdRZCJAbI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...GSP...JKL... LWX...MRX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42997866 42497621 42227396 40077489 38377691=20
36827942 35888163 36708295 39308143 42058012=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191826
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0485
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Central Arkasas...West-central Mississippi...Far
Northern Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191830Z - 200000Z

SUMMARY...Delicate balance of weak inflow and convergence to
maintain thunderstorms in a favorable slow/repeating steering
environment. Fairly saturated upper-soils may result in increased
runoff and possible localized incident(s) of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts the main core of the
outflow boundary from this morning's MCS continue to accelerate
southward across eastern MS/western AL as the core of the cold
pool presses south-southeastward starting to break out new
convection along its leading edge. Upstream, however, the affects
of the cold pool are much less as the overall larger scale
forcing/shortwave slides northeast across the upper-TN Valley.=20
Yet, the tail end of the cold front is hanging around with weak
northwesterly flow and drier air helping to tighten the theta-E
gradient across E OK into central AR. Temperatures are nearing
90F whil Tds are in the mid to upper 70s, with ample pooled
850-700mb moisture noted in CIRA LPW along the intersection of the
outflow boundary to the cold front along the MS River. CIRA LPW=20
does note that mid-level drying has mixed in across the region and
the combination of slightly steeper lapse rates in this region has
bumped up MLCAPEs to 3000-3500 J/kg.=20=20

The key will be prolonged/sufficient low level inflow/convergence
to maintain convective development. Currently, VWP at LZK/SHV and
boundary layer cu tracers suggest 15-20kts of
confluent/convergence across central AR to help spark the initial
convective development. RAP analysis of bulk shear suggests
proximity of the mid-level flow is sufficient for 20-25kts to
maintain weak organization and while right entrance divergence is
best maximized downstream across the convective cores east of the
MS River, there should be enough tilt to allow for a few updraft
cycles.=20

As noted, total PWat values are AoA 2" with the weak inflow
suggest solid moisture loading for 1.75-2"/hr rates, but updrafts
may still be fairly narrow. However, with expected 10-15kts of
upstream confluence flow into the boundary layer, convergence on
outflows and deep layer steering along/just southeast of the
frontal zone should allow for some repeating/training potential.
Allowing for 2-3" localized totals. While FFG seems to have
rebounded to normal/average values, the upper-soils remain fairly
saturated at over 60% per NASA SPoRT LIS products which are well
into the 90th percentile. This suggests, given the intensity of
the rates, reduced infiltration and increased runoff potential.=20
If the updrafts are broad enough, localized flash flooding is
considered possible through the afternoon.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!73t4Php53iecAKRRi2iXTQBbsAIsJM_fLLQ2To9HVyuGtWM9kPQLPyAoyt_XpTnFFDxU= tI_NVvC2cfP_fD4ug76ZmWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35059363 34839237 34409167 33469014 32818991=20
32369058 33149241 33649331 34309422 34829424=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191920
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-200100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0486
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Interior New England...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191920Z - 200100Z

SUMMARY...Intense,efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms with
capability of 1.5-2"/hr rates and some repeating further northeast
into Maine, may result in localized 2-3" totals and possible
incidents of flash flooding given complex/steep terrain.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a strong/fairly compact
shortwave cyclone crossing the Lower Great Lakes with a broad jet
streak across much of Quebec, resulting in favorable right
entrance ascent downstream into Interior New England. RAP 500mb
analysis shows a shortwave ridge axis through southern Quebec into
VT and this seems to make a weak southern stream shortwave or
remnant MCV-like feature matched with it. This wave seems to have
supported a subtle 1001 wave along the stationary front near CWBW,
and a weak surface trof appears within the Champlain Valley and
seems to be a weak convergence zone that extends along the
southern Adirondack Mtns into E NY. Surface Tds in the upper 60s,
lower 70s expand across the area of concern toward a lifting warm
front from CWHV to BNR to near Portland. Temperatures have risen
to the mid to upper 80s across VT/N NH supporting MLCAPE rising
into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis also
confirms that moisture as pool along/downstream of this weak
shortwave feature with total Pwats in the 1.75-2" range. The
combination of factors suggest very heavy rainfall potential will
exist with stronger updrafts crossing the area.

Current RADAR shows steady increase along this convergence trof
and though strongest convergence/moisture is north of the boarder,
the potential for rainfall rates of 2"/hr are solid. The limiting
factor to reaching those hourly totals will be duration and deep
layer steering is fairly robust at 30-40kts. As updrafts broaden
streaks of 1.5-2" totals are probable, though best probability for
those totals remains in S Quebec near the low/frontal zone where
convergence can be further maximized. However, eventually, those
cells will cross back into northern Maine and if there are some
repeating rounds (given upstream forcing remains strong, it seems
possible), spots of 2-3" totals are possible.

Irrespective of totals, the very intense quick burst of 1-1.5"
across complex terrain (1hr FFG in 1.5-2" range) still should pose
localized flash flooding risks...and any increase in duration due
to storms scale interaction/terrain locking would obviously pose a
greater risk, but given Hi-Res CAM solutions/evolution that
evolution remains uncertain and lower confidence overall.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_pkZC73NZ8wjbZxFrOtyF5bTokhE-uYcfhblRfIpctdnqtNfbce4qGaUQ87dcxJUiA2r= ecgzNghach_tBzqWhF8gVi4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47456935 47446854 47216813 46426839 45846880=20
44766973 44057114 42997229 42567369 42877469=20
43487478 44287387 45077333 45077319 45177170=20
45837075 46707025=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200030
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-200600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0487
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Northern Maine...Northern New Hampshire...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200030Z - 200600Z

SUMMARY...Strong squall line with up to 2"/hr rates with scattered
upstream cells capable of repeating through areas affected
initially. Localized totals to 2-3" by 06z, continuing risk for
localized flash flooding into the early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...RADAR starting to show squall line taking on more
embedded bowing segments as the line reaches the lifting warm
front across northern ME and the instability gradient. Subtle
shortwave, weak height-falls driving the low level
backed/convergent flow continues to lift northeast into the
upriver portions of the St. Lawrence Seaway. As such, forward
propagation speeds are starting to flatten the convective line
allowing for increased heavy rainfall duration. Given total PWats
still in the 1.75"+ range and ample remaining MLCAPE convective
line is likely to maintain capability of 1.5-2"/hr rates and with
increased duration of training, 1-2 hours may start to result in
localized 2-3" totals along the band.

While the deep layer moisture is exiting with the wave/drying
slightly upstream, the LLJ is strengthening with winds increasing
from 25-30kts toward 35kts, favoring upwind convergence. This may
support flanking line/back-building development with time.
Also, given the lingering west to east outflow boundary upstream
is also orientating favorably for some increased orthogonal
isentropic ascent in the upstream unstable airmass over NE NY into
VT (as well as clusters in S Quebec near the surface boundary),
will allow for additional development to potentially repeat across
areas that have been recently saturated. As such, widely
scattered/localized flash flooding remains possible through the
early overnight period across Northern NH and ME.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7KRPftpJHxuycNIoO_CWAclCdjsqFHX5y2lpqMgEWzp3ZNCllrAM6bTII5bTJTiDsTKG= OuS7phihPTOMY_-shXw3LRY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46916783 45866769 45536779 45326825 44876933=20
44457021 44287146 45027140 45357115 45567081=20
46127039 46667004 46906933=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210202
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-210800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0488
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Areas affected...eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota,
northwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210200Z - 210800Z

Summary...Convection is expected to rapidly deepen and expand in
coverage across the discussion area in the 03-08Z (10p-3a CDT)
timeframe. These storms will exhibit mergers and localized
training, with a risk of 2 inch/hr rain rates and a few areas of
flash flooding.

Discussion...Intense, deep convection has begun to quickly forward
propagate eastward across southwestern South Dakota. Meanwhile,
isolated cells have formed on the nose of strengthening low-level
flow across eastern South Dakota, with supercellular structures
noted near Jamestown, ND. These storms are exhibiting a limited
flash flood risk at the moment, with fast storm motions across
western North Dakota and isolated storm coverage in eastern North
Dakota both limiting the spatial extent of any heavy rainfall. A
few spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates near Jamestown could prompt
isolated flash flood issues in the short term.

Over time (more likely after 03Z/10p CDT), increasing low-level
flow across the eastern Dakotas and strong speed convergence along
the nose of that low-level flow across northern Minnesota will
combine with strong instability (1500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) to produce
widespread thunderstorm activity. These storms should eventually
concentrate along an axis from near/north of Fargo to ner Duluth.=20
They'll also form in close enough proximity to promote occasional
mergers and localized training, with spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates
expected at times. Additionally, storms should eventually merge
with upstream convection across North Dakota, providing further
opportunity for prolonging of heavy rain rates at any one spot.=20
Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals are expected beneath the
convection, with local amounts of 5 inches possible where
training/mergers are most pronounced. These rates will fall on
areas of 1-2 inch/hr FFG thresholds (lowest along the ND/MN border
and across northeastern Minnesota), with exceedence expected at
times. Flash flooding is possible in this scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Jy1OECamoSmfT4u0aW2Hzlx6jsyMA6UbK8afi-2qJMbkOjaMRnxQSJyh3fZX4dABMPr= 6Xnz7xYxQZmnqwjag3tXK5Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...DLH...FGF...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48909458 48399232 47819106 47079065 45809004=20
45429061 45729145 46589408 46639663 46399986=20
46820093 47540036 47839969 48409860 48889700=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220531
FFGMPD
VTZ000-NYZ000-221130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0489
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Northern and Central NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220530Z - 221130Z

SUMMARY...Strong convective complex over southeast Ontario will be
arriving across northern and central NY over the next several
hours. Some localized cell-training concerns are expected which
may result in some areas of flash flooding early this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
MRMS data shows a well-organized QLCS dropping down across
southeast Ontario, with the convective mass associated with a
strong shortwave embedded within deep layer west-northwest flow
situated around the northeast flank of a deep layer subtropical
ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes region.

Very cold convective tops are noted with the southwest flank of
the convective complex, with some overshooting tops as cold as
about -70C. Strong warm air advection and moisture transport
associated with a 50+ kt southwest low-level jet is seen riding up
across the lower Great Lakes region and far southeast Ontario, and
there is a nose of strong elevated instability aimed into the
southwest flank of the convective mass with MUCAPE values of 2000
to 3000 J/kg.

The robust moisture and instability transport into far southeast
Ontario will begin overspreading areas of northern NY over the
couple of hours as the shortwave energy approaches. This coupled
with strong effective bulk shear values of 40 to 50+ kts will
favor arrival of a well-organized band of convection, with the
QLCS losing latitude and dropping southeastward across northern
and eventually central NY going through early this morning.

Rainfall rates with this activity as it has been traversing
Ontario overnight have been well into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range,
with some cell-training that has fostered storm totals of 2 to 4
inches.

As this activity arrives down across northern and central NY, the
southwest flank of the convective mass may continue to be a focus
for cell-training as some of the convection becomes aligned more
parallel to the deeper layer steering flow. Similar rainfall rates
and totals are expected as this QLCS arrives over the next several
hours, and this may drive at least some areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!90hGePaoSpp5LcsF_fO6Mqd_Pe2sGOedy6UO8mH4JPJZvrEOn6znH5H7RbpBw9u37nRY= nXtsDeFevGYBmUd4F_etbVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44977381 44537318 43167351 42377450 42337615=20
42707711 43227723 43417673 43677638 44447591=20
44967497=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220951
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-221430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0490
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Central/Southern NY...Northeast PA...Northwest NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220950Z - 221430Z

SUMMARY...A strong convective complex over central NY will drop
down into areas of southern NY, northeast PA and northwest NJ this
morning. Locally significant cell-training concerns will exist,
and this will likely support areas of flash flooding going through
at least mid-morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
cold-topped convective complex over central NY which is losing
latitude and is expected to drop down into areas of southern NY,
northeast PA and northwest NJ going through the mid-morning hours.

This convection mass is being enhanced around its southwest flank
where there is a strong and convergent westerly low-level jet of
40 to 50+ kts, and this is yielding strong moisture and
instability transport. A nose of MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000+
J/kg is seen arriving across much of western and central NY, with
PWs locally up near 1.75 inches.

A notable cell-training threat will exist over the next few hours
across areas of central and southern NY in particular given the
interaction of the westerly low-level jet with the convectively
enhanced cold pool. The latest RAP analysis shows strong
convergence around the western flank of the MCS, and with the
upstream instability combined with isentropic ascent over the cold
pool, there will be a likelihood for cell-regeneration over the
next few hours in a general north-northwest to south-southeast
fashion in behind the initial convective bow which will drive the
cell-training threat.

Rainfall rates with the ongoing activity across central NY have
recently been upwards of 2 inches/hour based on MRMS data, and
similar rates are expected at least for a few more hours. There
are uncertainties with the character of this MCS as it approaches
and overspreads areas of northeast PA and northwest NJ, but some
cell-training concerns could potentially settle down into these
areas as well. Overall, the latest hires CAM guidance is doing a
poor job with respect to the placement and intensity of the
convection as most of the solutions are too slow and also tending
to weaken the activity too quickly.

Going through mid-morning, some additional rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches along the path of the MCS will be possible, with isolated
heavier amounts not out of the question given the cell-training
concerns. Areas of flash flooding are already occurring in central
NY, and with rather low FFG values in general across central and
southern NY through northeast PA and northwest NJ, there will be a
likelihood of seeing more flash flooding going through the
mid-morning hours from these rains.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-scO5DMf6_J5cNLfgaJiGmfzhK_w5adIQJzu9BVk2DJgOgmVwcvbMz9vhOBwAutmie0U= jiP429lGM_KGwWcSEKWjE1E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43577562 43247443 42327375 41607384 41017477=20
41287590 41827645 42497670 43217642=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221335
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-221830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0491
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221333Z - 221830Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy thunderstorms developing over eastern
ND will continue to shift northeast, but backbuild into the
southwesterly deep layer flow, prolonging rainfall duration.
Localized flash flooding is possible through midday.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar and satellite indicate rapid
development of a thunderstorm complex over east-central ND along a
low level trough above a stationary surface front and northwest of
a surface low. Recent rainfall estimates from KMVX have reached 2"
in Foster County in a little less than an hour. This is developing
in a moist/unstable environment. A lobe of elevated moisture (PW
up to 1.8" per the RAP) will continue shifting northeast over the
Red River of the North valley through midday and there is a strong
ML CAPE gradient SW to NE that exceeds 3000 J/kg east of the
current activity.

35kt deep layer SWly flow will keep advecting the moisture north,
though upwind Corfidi vectors point east which should continue to
allow backbuilding. Through midday, rainfall of 1-3" can be
expected in a short time frame/near one hour. 1hr FFG decreases
ahead of the current activity to below 2". Localized exceedance of
FFG is expected to continue, making for a possible flash flood
threat through midday.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9lF-Qb33x6N65pyajLEA4S_tT0z27ntmB3N__7hhYIltE7t9Z2pDwtThoK_GB5ygXGmr= vQxf0Z5nIO2k9DxQcKzWKDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49029618 48289537 46179544 46929730 47309959=20
48149933 49009832=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221536
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0492
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania and West-Central New York

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221535Z - 222030Z

SUMMARY...A threat for repeating thunderstorms continues through
the afternoon over portions of northeast PA and west-central NY
where flash flooding is possible. This activity should remain west
of the extreme rainfall from this morning in southern NY. However,
areas south and west of there are vulnerable to flooding given the
terrain and low flash flood guidance.

DISCUSSION...A slow moving western front left over from extreme
rainfall in southern NY is the focus for continued convection over
west-central NY and northeast PA. Recent uptick in activity there
has resumed 1"/hr rainfall (in Susquehanna Co PA) due to repeating
development as upper level steering flow is nearly parallel to
this front. Low level westerly flow has diminished from this
morning, but remains around 25kt at 850mb per NEXRAD VAD Wind
Profiles (such as KCCX).

Pooled elevated moisture (PW around 2.0") and a strong gradient in
MLCAPE will continue to allow further development through the peak
diurnal hours. Cell-training will continue to be a threat in this
rather static mesoscale pattern.

A question remains as to how far west this activity develops. Over
the past hour, the progression west has greatly slowed which means
continued training is a threat and could grow more considerable as
indicated by 12Z ARW2/FV3LAM/NAMnest. Given 1hr FFG is below 1.5"
there is a localized flash flood threat that may yet expand in coverage/intensity if the training activity does stall.

Going through the afternoon morning, additional rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches along this frontal zone, and thus flash flooding are
possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7uatsuElLPeTHV-pUs3Ks0CQx1niQy5qJB0GzdozDli76jCVvTakiQz6EcHFwnKNydDZ= mWyQBZaOTQToiEl_JrV5Ntc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42767651 42537579 41887532 41047493 40467502=20
40267563 40747653 41407679 42457730=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0493
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of far west Texas into eastern New
Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222017Z - 230217Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms will continue to
develop across portions of the TransPecos and southeastern New
Mexico this afternoon. The combination of slow storm movement and
cell mergers should allow for spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates to
develop, likely prompting flash flooding in a few locales.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorm activity has materialized
along a surface trough/dryline extending from near SRR/Alto, NM
southward through KVHN/Van Horn, TX. The storms are in a
marginally sheared environment (20 kts effective shear), but
reside in a zone of persistent low-level convergence and
orographic ascent especially across far west Texas. 1-1.4 inch PW
values, slow storm movement, and occasional cell mergers will
eventually lead to spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates as storms
mature through the early evening. An increase in convective
coverage is depicted by CAMs over the next 2-4 hours, which is
reasonable given widespread deepening convective cumulus across
the discussion area amid ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE.

As convective coverage increases this afternoon, 1-1.5 inch/hr
rain rates will fall on areas of sensitive/urban terrain. 1.5
inch/hr FFG thresholds exist across most of the discussion area,
which should be exceeded at times. Flash flooding is likely on an
isolated to scattered basis through at least 02Z/9p CDT.

Cook=20=20=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Tli1qtU_ms7-Cd62gqeOrC7r8HhS3Yxh8IOKl3Y2tZs7Rx9AKdC6liQ8ZAz_Czr8aAX= SFokChvMOzP9rM2JDMIt0rQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35830416 35680296 34770267 33090351 31040288=20
29950259 29060323 30680499 31630606 33320608=20
35260513=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222044
FFGMPD
NDZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0494
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...central/northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222042Z - 222300Z

Summary...A band of elevated convection has developed across
central North Dakota, while obtaining a favorable orientation for
training. Areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates can be expected while
the band persists, prompting isolated flash flood potential.

Discussion...In the past half hour or so, convection along an axis
extending from 50 miles northeast of Bismarck to ~20 miles west of
Langdon has exhibited increasing organization and training. This
band of convection was elevated, but likely tied to strong
convergence along an 850mb trough in the area. The region also
resides on the western fringes of very steep lapse rates aloft,
and its SSW-NNE orientation is favorably oriented to steering flow
aloft for training. Areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates have
already been observed within this band - especially just northeast
of Bismarck.

The temporal extent of this flash flood risk is a bit uncertain,
with models not handling the ongoing training convection
particularly well. At least 2-3 hours of convective training can
be expected within this axis, resulting in spots of 3-4 inch
rainfall totals through 22-23Z. The mesoscale organization of the
complex may not persist beyond that point as the band lifts
quickly north-northeastward into south-central Canadian provinces.
Convective trends will be monitored for additional heavy rain
potential beyond 23Z/6p CDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6dHjX62Ujp2c7YgScLGrE4Bx9KLq2BOKMXuxkfNZoxq1KLA2zMfmgfdbQxjASVQQgc27= ELlf8pvBWP5ieP_1o0T1fwk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49169903 49109803 48619789 47709860 46969994=20
47020079 47580052 48030037 48789983=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230320
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0495
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Southwest to West-Central TX...Southeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230318Z - 230800Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue into a portion of the overnight
period. Some additional scattered areas of flash flooding will be
likely from the high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing a
few slow-moving convective clusters across portions of southwest
TX and into southeast NM. The convection is embedded within a very
moist and moderately unstable environment characterized by PWs of
1.5 to 1.7 inches, and MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.

Some weak vort energy is noted in WV satellite imagery lifting
northeastward across the region within the deeper layer southwest
flow over the region, and this is providing for some localized
stronger forcing/ascent for this activity. Cooling convective tops
have been noted over the last hour, and based off MRMS data, some
of the rainfall rates have been as high as 1.5 to 2 inches/hour.

Over the next few hours, the slow cell-motions associated with the
convection will favor some storm totals that may reach 3 to 4+
inches, and this is supported by some of the 00Z HREF solutions.
The HREF consensus generally supports the greater concentrations
of heavy rainfall focusing over southwest TX where the guidance
indicates somewhat stronger mid-level forcing/vort energy.

Given the additional rainfall threat, some additional scattered
areas of flash flooding are generally likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QDjP1j0rIeJgBzvcmxgzkm5XJTCq46AavGrUWC14XCvgbNB9Sc2EDxo8WLUx2a7VzR0= UZS2qyi5HGzpzvZeVkRmSy8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34290281 34050204 32930211 31090324 29560370=20
29530438 29860484 30460492 30940537 31440514=20
32630402 33950347=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232032
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-240231-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0497
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa,
central/southern Wisconsin, far northern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232031Z - 240231Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in organization
and intensity across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin,
with areas of 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates now being observed. These
rates will promote isolated/spotty flash flood potential across
the discussion area through 02Z/10pm CDT this evening.

Discussion...Thunderstorms were increasing in coverage and
intensity - especially across southeastern Minnesota where 1-1.75
inch/hr rain rates were estimated per MRMS. The cells are
embedded in deep southwesterly flow aloft along with weak/modest
low-level shear, suggesting outflow-dominance and potential for
multiple cell mergers to locally prolong rain rates. The cells
are in a strongly unstable, moist airmass (3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2
inch PW values), supporting intense and efficient downdrafts and
local rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hr. These rain rates will
approach/locally exceed FFG thresholds, supporting isolated flash
flood potential in the near term.

Eventually, cells will further congeal into one or two
forward-propagating convective complexes over the course of the
afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for continued heavy
rain potential along with more of a southward component of translation/development of heavy rain axes into more of southern
Wisconsin, northeastern Iowa, and adjacent areas. The uncapped
airmass southeast of ongoing convection and broad low-level confluence/convergence suggests that newer convection will merge
with evolving complexes and aid in continued heavy rain potential,
with spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates continuing. Isolated instances
of flash flooding are expected through the evening as a result.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-m494f14f_IDXdcqs8x068e1qyax8IkhETHjSurrAhb-Dh3t0EwEJLtfNcaN9Wsi4ihU= aFOhNYumPMdFL-RZ7GaFUlQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44778792 43838768 43048803 42368880 41969068=20
41649296 42329364 43279343 44019256 44679043=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232127
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0498
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...central/northeastern Kansas into central iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 232126Z - 240326Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will gradually increase in
coverage through 03Z/10p CDT across the discussion area. These
storms will also gradually organize into bands fostering
training/mergers, with rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hr at times.
Flash flooding is expected on an isolated to scattered basis.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to expand in
coverage 1) along and just north of a surface cold front extending
from near Hays, KS to near Mason City, IA and 2) ahead of this
front across much of central Kansas. The storms are embedded in
deep southwesterly flow aloft, with marginal low-level shear
contributing to loosely organized cells and clusters that are
primarily outflow dominant in nature. Cells were drifting
northeastward while merging, resulting in localized spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates especially from central Kansas into
southwestern Iowa. These rates are falling well below FFG
thresholds (generally in the 2.5 inch/hr range), suggestive of an isolated/spotty flash flood risk in the near term (through 22Z or
so).

Over time, convective coverage should expand with continued
surface heating and a weakly capped airmass. Meanwhile, 850mb
flow should increase into the 25-30kt range while promoting
convergence along the surface front. The strong southwesterly
flow should also maintain both moisture (2+ inch PW values) and
instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) Each of these factors support an
increasing flash flood risk as areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
materialize. Sensitive/urbanized areas should experience the
greatest flash flood risk in this scenario. Scattered storms
should continue to grow upscale into bands promoting training and
mergers, and development of one or two forward-propagating
convective complex is likely especially from northeastern Kansas
into southwestern Iowa. Isolated to scattered flash flooding is
likely in this scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9w9idsvK4vkaJsp-R3A420YwzqDK-j7FM6erI3URNlZs40zt8Cam0UIY7MlqXmMIbFX2= 27bnPdX326iNvtZl3ymLm9o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42589334 42339222 41829171 40599262 38619539=20
37499673 37219792 37269959 37660022 38380010=20
39379885 40299814 41739523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232143
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-240342-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0499
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle, Texas South
Plains, southeastern New Mexico, far northwest Oklahoma, far
southwest Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232142Z - 240342Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms were drifting
northward while occasionally merging, resulting in spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates. These trends should continue for a few hours
this afternoon, prompting an isolated flash flood risk especially
in low-lying/sensitive areas.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts maturing
convective cells in scattered fashion generally extending from
Perryton, TX south-southwestward through Amarillo, Lubbock, and
Hobbs, NM. These storms were drifting northward amid deep, but
weak, southerly steering flow across the region. The storms were
embedded in a very moist, unstable pre-convective environment,
with ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.75-2 inch PW values contributing to
strong updrafts and efficient rain rates. Weak shear and weak
inhibition has enabled multiple outflow-driven cells to
materialize, with several cell mergers and slow cell movement
contributing to areas of 1.5-3 inch/hr rain rates in a few spots.
Local FFGs are as low as 1.5 inch/hr in spots across the
discussion area, suggestive of isolated flash flood potential
currently existing in the most sensitive areas.

These trends should continue through the evening hours as
continued solar insolation promotes new updrafts/development in
areas unaffected by current convection and outflows. Models
suggest a diurnally driven convective threat, with gradual
weakening of storms after sunset/02Z or so. The flash flood
threat will likely be diurnally driven as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ytSuizQuw-fdxJBu5_XB8t25iOUfBGEwdA4xnLh-ZD0tbRA1M2h8eZrFXr5FYnUFb9r= xVjHgFf-VJbs7vouFfFl1nc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37479921 36939907 35939953 34080098 32490206=20
31930264 32580374 33790408 35510295 36810141=20
37439978=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240336
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-240735-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0500
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...Southern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240335Z - 240735Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to pulse going into the overnight hours across portions
of southern NM and into southwest TX. High rainfall rates and
locally slow cell-motions will continue a threat for flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows areas of
cold-topped convection continuing to regenerate and locally
persist across areas of southern NM and down into southwest TX.
The environment remains very moist with PWs in the 90th to 95th
percentile of climatology this evening. Despite the convection
that has already occurred through the evening, there still remains
pockets of instability with MLCAPE values locally over 1000 J/kg.

There is some weak mid-level vort energy lifting slowly
northeastward across far northern Mexico which may lift into
southern NM and far southwest TX overnight, and this energy will
likely support at least some sustenance of convection given the
very moist environment and the lingering instability.

The moisture concentrations in the mid and upper-levels of the
vertical column are quite impressive based off the CIRA-ALPW
analyses and this should favor rather efficient rainfall processes
for additional high-end rainfall rates. Some rates with the
stronger storms that persist over the next few hours may still be
capable of reaching 2 inches/hour. The slow cell-motions will
support additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 4+ inches.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible, and this will
especially be the case around some of the normally dry
washes/arroyos and localized burn scar areas which are sensitive
to heavy rainfall.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6GmEjehXi64hq1xaAqmgwG35h_BLjMYWj2FiHtIYIgpaf7GrWGmp-Xj24plTyXqJ_fs6= KtG3a77JVOQtFeMPty61tBg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34230585 33900454 32800346 30990293 29490277=20
29070342 29570448 30740551 31270620 32210700=20
33530707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240418
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1217 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS...Northwest MO...Southern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240417Z - 241000Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight across portions of central and eastern KS, northwest MO
and southern IA. Some additional concerns for flash flooding will
exist from slow-moving cells and high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
southwest to northeast axis of broken shower and thunderstorm
activity extending from central KS northeastward through northwest
MO and into southern IA. The activity is focused along and south
of a well-defined frontal zone with a very moist and unstable
airmass pooled up along it. PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches, with MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted along it.

A rather convergent southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts is
focused in proximity to the front, and this should coupled with at
least weakly divergent flow aloft should maintain a regional
threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the
overnight hours.

There will be additional storms capable of producing rainfall
rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour based on the very moist
environment along the front, and locally slow cell-motions and
potential areas for some cell-training may allow for some spotty
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches.

The 00Z HREF guidance is rather aggressive with some of the
rainfall potential over the next several hours, and may be locally
a bit overdone, but the environment near and south of the front
should remain conducive for additional areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some additional concerns for flash flooding will be
possible as a result, and especially if any of these heavier rains
can impact the more sensitive urbanized areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6lOlPDgyrx9pzE1UpcAhx8mWQInGxSn7TWM-dz_qLhqe7tK90GVcukyoo4LsZiRbE2Ki= 87xwrDFSIwJpPcrZU4ZkOUc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41699247 41249134 40229211 38769477 37969683=20
37819855 38669881 40039606 41249448=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240942
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Central/Northeast KS...Northwest MO...Southern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240940Z - 241500Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected going through the mid-morning hours. Given the high
rainfall rates along with cell-training concerns and the
increasingly moist/wet antecedent conditions, the threat of flash
flooding will continue.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with dual-pol radar shows a broken axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of central KS through
northwest MO and into southern IA. Some of the coldest convective
tops and heavier rainfall rates are along areas of the MO/IA
border where MRMS data is showing rates upwards of 1.5 inches/hour.

This activity is embedded within a moist and unstable airmass
early this morning characterized by PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches, and
with MUCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg. There continues to be a
frontal zone draped in a southwest to northeast fashion across the
area with multiple weak waves of low pressure riding northeast
along it. Some weak vort energy is also noted in satellite
imagery, with one vort over central KS and another one over
southwest IA which are both contributing to some modest ascent
over the region and thus facilitating convective sustenance.

The 00Z REFS data suggests the ongoing activity may persist for a
while this morning, with a setup that will locally favor
repeating/training areas of convection. These areas of heavy
showers and thunderstorms will be capable of yielding an
additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain, with the heaviest amounts over
northwest MO and southern IA.

Given the rainfall that has occurred overnight, the antecedent
conditions across the area are locally quite moist/wet, and thus
with the additional rains this morning, the threat for areas of
flash flooding will continue.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KQ5T8zmZBIqtSI44KsE9wn-xT_Q6UG9i--l3QNJfCgX3Y1z4Vr3CPriu2SJutPwK_36= bQiCzPJBRzdT33ULLWALUKA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41649345 41569229 40769218 39219503 38299721=20
38539798 39109751 40059611 41119482=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241702
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0504
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
102 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Central and Northern New Mexico, far southern
Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241701Z - 242300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing across New Mexico
will expand and intensify through the afternoon. Rainfall rates
may exceed 1"/hr at times, leading to 1-2" of rain with locally
higher amounts possible. This may cause instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic late this morning shows
rapidly expanding coverage of showers aligned with a surface
trough axis across western New Mexico. This convection is
blossoming in response to increasing ascent through low-level
convergence and increasing upper diffluence as a jet streak pivots
to the north. Thermodynamics are impressive across the region as
well, with PWs analyzed by the SPC RAP of 0.8 to 1.2 inches (and
measured on the KABQ 12Z U/A sounding of 1.12 inches, nearly a
record), overlapping increasing SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Recent
shower activity from KABX WSR-88D has rapidly expanded coincident
with cooling cloud tops reflective of deepening updrafts, yielding radar-estimated rainfall rates of 0.5"/hr.

The CAMs are in good agreement that convection will continue to
rapidly expand during the next few hours, and in fact the current
activity is even more widespread than CAM initialization which
appears to be running about 2 hours behind reality. This suggests
that the impressive coverage of simulated reflectivity forecast by
the CAMs is accurate, with the overlap of strong deep layer ascent
maximizing over near record PWs leading to numerous thunderstorms
by the aftn. As bulk shear increases to 20-30 kts, storms should
organize into clusters and intensify even further, with HREF,
REFS, and the UA-WRF indicating rainfall rates potentially
eclipsing 1"/hr later today, with as much as 0.5" of rainfall
occurring in 15-mins according to the HRRR. Although storms will
form initially along the low-level convergent trough and across
terrain, it is likely these clusters will move off to the
northeast on 0-6km mean winds of 10-20 kts, with aligned Corfidi
vectors indicating training of cells to produce 1-2" of rainfall
with locally higher amounts.

These intense rainfall rates, especially where they repeat/train,
will pose an increasing flash flood risk through the afternoon.
FFG across the area is elevated due to recent dry conditions,
which limits HREF exceedance probabilities to just 5-10%. However,
where any more pronounced training can occur, or should the
strongest cells move atop sensitive terrain features, urban areas,
or recent burn scars, rapid runoff leading to instances of flash
flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_12K0FKB0Trb3gvrfaEYs_Gnh8jnhyM6PaSfaUyWA5tFmVkBwaC7g3rtfTGlpcerobtD= ee1w8ucAB-uvlUWj8ImCSFg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37630508 37450464 37190429 36420431 35310434=20
34640472 34230525 33970585 33970595 33580664=20
33210731 33130781 33260806 34210815 35900780=20
37040705 37590590=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241852
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-250000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...West TX, High Plains of NM, far western TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241851Z - 250000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly expand this
afternoon across the High Plains of NM and surrounding areas.
Rainfall rates in more intense cores will exceed 1"/hr, leading to
localized rainfall totals of 2-3" or more. Flash flooding is
likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic across the Southwest this
afternoon shows a rapid expansion of showers and thunderstorms
aligned from far West Texas northeast through the western
Panhandle of Texas. This activity is building rapidly in response
to impressive and intensifying deep layer ascent driven by a
combination of height falls from an amplifying trough over the
Great Basin, a favorably placed upper jet streak, and a potent
MCV/convectively enhanced shortwave lifting out of Chihuahua,
Mexico. This lift is acting upon extreme thermodynamics
characterized by record PWs measured via regiona U/A soundings of
1.4 to 1.6 inches overlapped with SBCAPE that has climbed to
1000-2000 J/kg according to the SPC RAP analysis. With a large
mid-level ridge anchored to the east, and the amplifying trough to
the west, the region will remain pinched within moist flow
allowing for ongoing convection to expand and intensify through
the evening as reflected by available CAMs.

Recent reflectivity from KFDX and KHDX WSR-88Ds has expanded
rapidly in conjunction with a surge of Lightning Cast
probabilities and deepening updrafts on the day-cloud phase RGB
from GOES-E. This has manifested as radar-estimated rainfall rates
as high as 1.5"/hr. Although storms have been generally of pulse
variety with limited life spans due to weak bulk shear, some
organization is occurring along a pronounced 850-700mb convergence
axis as low-level winds weaken out of Texas. This, as well as the
potent MCV emerging into West Texas, will help to focus
thunderstorms over the High Plains of NM through the afternoon.
Initially, fresh convection will move slowly as noted by weak
winds in the sfc-600mb layer of regional soundings, but then
eventually translate more rapidly northeast as they deepen. Still,
Corfidi vectors will remain just 5-10 kts indicating that cells
will generally move slowly today. With rain rates progged by both
HREF and REFS ensembles to exceed 1"/hr (50-60% chance), and HRRR
15-min rainfall as much as 0.5", this could result in 2-3" of rain
with locally higher amounts through the evening.

Parts of eastern NM and West Texas have been wet the past 7 days,
with AHPS measuring rainfall departures that are as much as 300%
of normal. This has lowered FFG to as low as 1-2"/3hrs, with much
lower FFG likely across sensitive burn scars and terrain features.
There is at least a 30-50% chance of exceedance of this FFG, and
flash flooding is likely over more sensitive soils and urban
areas. Should this heavy rain fall atop the most vulnerable areas,
like the Ruidoso Complex, locally significant impacts are likely.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4dEE2h7MyQRmFd-wz1rKQSzbb140vqk0vv12d8Lh2Zo4Il3gPbnQxFdjJEb_X_7qAwH6= 2QhYw1x-o65AphocEErdBmE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36660298 36540251 36190215 35300242 34350288=20
33130314 31800362 30860418 30670517 31130616=20
31470655 31810675 32490660 33510612 34200568=20
35360468 36380375=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242248
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-250446-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0506
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Southwestern and central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242246Z - 250446Z

SUMMARY...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are impacting New
Mexico this afternoon and containing hourly rainfall rates up to
2.5". These storms are expected to continue through early tonight
while potentially becoming more organized, likely leading to
numerous additional instances of flash flooding and potentially
significant local impacts.

DISCUSSION...GOES19 IR satellite imagery depicts cooling
cloud-tops associated with thunderstorms oriented
northeast-southwest across New Mexico moving generally
east-northeast under the influence of a large eastern U.S. upper
ridge and western U.S. upper trough. This convergent flow is also
allowing for plentiful amounts of atmospheric moisture content to
continually pump into the region. PWs to remain elevated and above
1.0" in the region, with maximum values along the New
Mexico-Mexico border estimated over 1.6" per SPC's mesoanalysis.
This is well above climatology and highlighted by both the GEFS
and ECENS as exceeding the 95th climatological percentile. To
summarize, any thunderstorms will have ample moisture to produce
efficient rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5"/hr which in this part of the
country can be particularly hazardous.

MLCAPE values over 500 J/kg are widespread across central NM and
higher south where values of 1000-2000 J/kg are being slowly
advected northward along with an MCV in West Texas evident in
visible satellite. The combination of increasing instability,
convergent flow on the western periphery of an MCV, and high PWs
leads to the likelihood of continued convection into the early
overnight period, with thunderstorms also likely congealing along
the primary confluence zone in central NM.

Mountainous terrain, local burn scars, urbanized areas, and dry
washes are most susceptible for flash flooding. Given the ongoing
flash flood warnings in the area and the additional rainfall
amounts locally to exceed 2", additional flash flooding is
considered likely. Some significant impacts are also possible
where renewed/developing convection overlaps with earlier rainfall
associated with initial early afternoon thunderstorms

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!63bX0_HPse5-bkS0nVxK5lLAcq9ge0-GECSMqa9Em3_14U8G5j6bdyhBj_JMP2PduM8R= x6aYZ2n26dNZ4LbzJeZ8gYc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36930443 36120439 34730530 33250616 31960683=20
31370757 31140869 31300972 31830979 33070882=20
34460765 35890651 36820545=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250002
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0507
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Far northeast KS, southeast NE, southern IA, and
northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250000Z - 250400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving from
northeast Kansas into northern Missouri have the potential for
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr. These storms are moving into an area
that experienced heavy rainfall earlier today and could spawn
isolated instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite observations depict mostly
unorganized thunderstorms rounding the dominant eastern U.S. upper
ridge and moving across the central Plains in an
east-northeasterly direction south of a stationary front draped
across central IA. Additionally, an outflow/low-level convergence
boundary is analyzed south of this front and is the focus for the
scattered thunderstorm activity of concern. MRMS shows hourly
rates estimated up to 1.5-2.0" at times.

Recent 22z HRRR run did not initialize this convection accurately
compared to prior runs, with the experimental RRFS struggling to
as well. This area of northern MO and southern IA falls on the
southern periphery of the better moisture axis with PWs greater
than 1.7" extending along the frontal boundary just to the north.
However, an instability gradient noted by 2500-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE
extends along the surface convergence zone and should be enough to
maintain or grow updrafts within an area of 25-30kts of sfc-3km
bulk shear. Therefore, it's possible storms maintain for several
additional hours until instability weakens well after sunset.

Parts of northern MO and southern IA experienced several inches of
rainfall this morning (4-6") and FFG remains somewhat impacted as
3-hr FFG remains below 2.5" in spots. Given the potential for
storms to overlap these sensitive locations and locally intense
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr, isolated flash flooding is possible.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YqAK2nReUAwowKySDnXIfLG34pWl_au-CPViECg22FY3GsAngUFLoJsFlpIbikY1ct6= oCOJS14rz8HNAU7YbzrS0B8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41309265 41119192 40699181 40159275 39649434=20
39579520 39989560 40389544 40889477 41239357=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250047
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0508
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado through central Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250045Z - 250645Z

SUMMARY...Organizing cluster of thunderstorms extending from
eastern Colorado through southwestern portions of Nebraska is
expected to gradually push northeastward while containing heavy
rainfall rates potentially exceeding 2"/hr at times. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible through early
tonight.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations, radar, and satellite
trends depict an organizing thunderstorm complex exhibiting a
somewhat slow northeast forward motion that has the potential to
produce instances of flash flooding. MRMS estimates hourly
rainfall rates up to 2.5"/hr near the border of southwest NE and
northeast CO where the advancing line of storms out of CO is
congealing with developing cells in the warm sector across
southern NE.

This area of thunderstorms falls within the RFQ of the 300mb upper
jet racing out of the neutrally tilted western U.S. trough with
its base in southern CA. This is providing ample divergence aloft
and when combined with surface convergence along a frontal
boundary, an ideal setup for thunderstorm growth. Southerly flow
on the western periphery of the eastern U.S. upper high is also
giving the region plenty of atmospheric moisture content to work
with. PWs in the are over 1.5" and above the 95th climatological
percentile per the 12z ECENS and GEFS. Therefore, rainfall rates
are expected to be intense underneath the strongest updrafts and
within developing mesoscale circulations created by merging cells.
Recent CAMs depict the potential for rainfall totals up to 5" and
the 18z HREF highlights 25 percent chances for at least 3" across
a broad region in the highlighted MPD. 3-hr FFG is generally
around 3", thus the potential for isolated to scattered flash
flooding more likely in prone urban areas and low-lying areas near rivers/streams.=20

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_6ZheWlfpNxBg-IPc_t9xgysWualF5N1Q7fK90e16GzxcbvoAneg-XxQAWeHBc_qIsU4= kl2b3hkxp_Rj-dKIRD2kvqg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41870058 41520008 40620055 39160210 38510318=20
38830376 39550326 40110302 41060294 41570248=20
41830175=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250431
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-251030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0509
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250430Z - 251030Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will continue overnight across areas of
central and eastern NM down through southwest TX. A combination of
heavier rainfall rates and slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
will likely foster additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The mid-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
slow-moving shortwave trough ejecting across western NM which is
helping to drive a broader area of ascent downstream across much
of central and eastern NM down through southwest TX. This is
interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass and is
currently sustaining a fairly large area of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity.

PWs across the region are on the order of 1.3 to 1.5 inches which
represents the 90th to 95th percentile of climatology. The 00Z EPZ
RAOB showed a rather high WBZ level with a strong concentration of
moisture in the mid and upper levels of the vertical column. This
is further confirmed in CIRA-ALPW data which shows a very
well-defined tropical connection of moisture lifting north from
Mexico and up across the southern Rockies/High Plains around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the
Eastern U.S.

This very moist environment will favor highly efficient rainfall
processes for enhanced rain rates. The latest RAP analysis shows a
rather strong pool of instability currently over southeast NM with
the aid of moist low-level southeast flow, and the MUCAPE values
currently remain as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg. This available
thermodynamic energy coupled with the approaching shortwave
trough, proximity of a weak MCV, and weak outflow-induced
low-level forcing should maintain a solid threat for heavy showers
and thunderstorms going well into the overnight hours. Localized
orographic ascent near areas of high terrain, including the
Sacramento Mountains will further enhance the convective potential.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms will likely be 1 to 2+
inches/hour given the anomalously moist environment, and the
relatively slow cell-motions may allow for some storm totals
overnight to reach 2 to 4+ inches. Areas of flash flooding will be
likely as a result, and there will be concerns overnight for
notable arroyo flash flooding. Additionally, the burn scar complex
(Blue-2, Salt, South Fork, and McBride) in the Sacramento
Mountains will need to be carefully monitored for additional
focused flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-nMEJJzWWb03U0-X1rrv491tKluIuvPx4lrGBnvZtvyCnskidgH0wAqmm1X3lc5mx7BI= ii_zbECZy3TL3voiEkJ6dHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36130397 36030307 34890321 33100407 31490443=20
30870526 31170589 31400628 31750676 31880755=20
32650771 33370725 34390640 35230542=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250657
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-251255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0510
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NE...Western and Central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250655Z - 251255Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms going
through the early morning hours may produce sufficient rainfall
for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave impulse along with an attendant wave of
low pressure along a front will continue to advance east going
through the early morning hours and will drive a relative broad
area of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. Strong warm air advection/isentropic ascent with the aid of a southwest low-level
jet of 30 to 40+ kts continues to surge poleward over a
pre-existing outflow boundary across northern KS and northern MO
and into closer proximity of the aforementioned front which
extends across central to northeast NE and through north-central
IA. This is yielding persistent moisture and instability transport
ahead of the surface low and is favoring an elongated axis of
elevated convection.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000+ J/kg, with PWs that
are locally 1.75 to 2 inches. These are generally in the 90th to
95th percentile of climatology and are helping to favor high
rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cells.

Over the next several hours going through the early morning time
frame, there should continue to be bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms advancing gradually off to the east and northeast
across central to eastern NE and into western and central IA as
the upstream shortwave energy and low center arrives. The
low-level jet is forecast by the RAP guidance to gradually veer a
bit with some additional strengthening of it at least through the
predawn hours. This may favor some localized backbuilding and
training of convection in time.

The 00Z HREF and 18Z REFS data have some differences with respect
to the placement of the heaviest rainfall over the next 3 to 6
hours, with the HREF axis south of the REFS, but they both support
additional high rainfall rates and some storm totals going through
12Z (7AM CDT) that could reach 3 to 5 inches where more focused
areas of cell-training occur.

FFG values are generally rather high across most of the MPD area,
but the HREF/REFS consensus shows some 20 to 40 percent
probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG values exceeded and
especially across western and central IA.

As a result, the thinking is that there may be some concerns for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding going through the
early morning hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_oKyAqScDqt4nFYQ3Q1tv50_ylXgVLh6WSbgbMqCwDfRvlNMsufw54Lt2qTva8pj6ST6= sWLdWQ7l9ZF7b9wVXa-uqX0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42999530 42999372 42529261 41799244 41299320=20
40849516 40599696 40599859 40869923 41539922=20
42279829 42819659=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250957
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-251530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250955Z - 251530Z

SUMMARY...Some additional clusters of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be possible going into the morning hours which
will maintain at least some potential for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The predawn GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
dual-pol radar still shows some areas of locally heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity impacting areas of central and southern NM
along with far southwest TX. A slow-moving shortwave trough over
the Southwest continues to slowly pivot eastward, and this is
driving some right-entrance region upper-jet dynamics which
coupled with the very moist and modestly unstable airmass across
the region should favor a threat for these clusters of convection
to persist into the morning hours.

PWs across the region remain the same as earlier and are on the
order of 1.3 to 1.5 inches which represents the 90th to 95th
percentile of climatology. CIRA-ALPW data continues to show a deep
layer tropical connection of moisture lifting north across Mexico
and up across the southern Rockies/High Plains around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the Eastern U.S.

The latest RAP analsyis shows MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
locally over the region, and this coupled with the very moist
environment and local ororgaphics should still favor some rainfall
rates that may reach 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger cells.

The 06Z HREF and 00Z REFS data suggests some potential for
additional FFG exceedances going into the morning hours, with
locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain possible going through
15Z (9AM MDT) where the stronger remaining clusters of convection
persist.

Therefore, a threat for additional areas of flash flooding will be
maintained at least over the next several hours. This will include
locally enhanced runoff concerns for the normally dry
washes/arroyos and any burn scar locations including for the
Sacramento Mountains.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7K38a1kIEB2w34xBrMavFbZcIw1cFwiIyFHVKYnHfqsXWHiKgPP5LkNUC_jWIUqdUXef= MuVlHhOPNkkniu4OY_JHoKQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34810443 34410361 33090363 31500454 30930536=20
31040579 31210604 31590672 31690776 31900802=20
32480778 33230713 34120597=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251133
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-251700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0512
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
732 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, far
northern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251132Z - 251700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will steadily increase in
coverage through the morning, focusing along an elevated boundary.
Rainfall rates within the stronger convection will exceed 1"/hr,
which through training could produce locally more than 3" of rain
and instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this morning shows an expansive
area of cold clouds with continued cooling tops stretched from
western SD through MN and IA. These cooling tops are associated
with expanding showers and thunderstorms developing within
pronounced ascent in the RRQ of a strengthening upper jet streak
centered over Ontario, aided by both a shortwave lifting across SD
and potent isentropic lift as the 850mb LLJ of 20-25 kts lifts
northward over a surface warm front. Thermodynamics across the
region are favorable for heavy rain as reflected by SPC RAP
analyzed PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches, above the 90th percentile for
the date, and MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This is supporting
widespread rainfall rates of 0.5-1"/hr from regional radars, with
expanding heavy rainfall occurring primarily along the nose of the
LLJ/elevated 850mb boundary.

During the next several hours, a wave of low pressure developing
along the warm front across SD will help pinch the flow
downstream, helping to accelerate the LLJ to offset the typical
diurnal weakening of this feature. At the same time, the flow may
back more prominently to the SE, helping to funnel even more
intense thermodynamics into MN/SD (PWs over 2" coincident with
1000 J/kg MUCAPE). The high-res CAMs indicate that convection may
focus in two swaths - along the warm front itself - and then more
impressively aligned to the elevated front where moisture
confluence will be most intense and the enhanced ascent downstream
of the shortwave will focus. Across this area, Corfidi vectors
become aligned to the elevated front and sharply right of the mean
0-6km winds, suggesting an enhanced training threat. With rainfall
rates progged by the HREF and REFS to exceed 1"/hr (40-60%
chance), this training will result in an axis of rainfall of 2-3"
with locally higher amounts exceeding 4" as reflected by 6-hr
HREF/REFS probabilities and PMM.

Recent rainfall has been highly variable across this region as
shown by NASA Sport 0-40cm soil moisture that is only above normal
in some places, leading to FFG generally 1.5 to 3 inches in 3
hours. HREF exceedance probabilities are 20-30% for these
thresholds, indicating the increased risk for flash flood
instances this morning anywhere in the region. However, the
greatest risk will likely be in an east-west axis along the
elevated front from far northeast SD through eastern MN.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ZUaxsQT2De_-tE-nuOQ3_bEa9HOdzvEFNACArUtM8s-dBdv4LfiuTYRCn7zai-sh0Dh= rjXhy6iL7bvQ3kHx6dAngkE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DLH...DMX...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46129639 46039406 45659283 44799290 43829334=20
43239408 42929503 42859656 43199746 43589811=20
44289898 44799938 45449921 45919813=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251654
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-252300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0513
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1254 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...northern IA, eastern SD, southern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251700Z - 252300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand in
coverage through the afternoon and intensify to support rain rates
of 1-2"/hr. This could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts across wet antecedent soils. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows an
expansive area of stratiform rain across Minnesota. This
precipitation is occurring in response to pronounced ascent within
the RRQ of a strong jet streak to the northeast and persistent
warm advection and isentropic ascent along the 850mb inflow axis.
PWs across the region are impressive, analyzed by the SPC RAP to
be 1.5 to 2.0 inches, with the limiting factor to rainfall
intensity so far being the sharp instability gradient as SBCAPE
above 250 J/kg is confined to areas south of the analyzed warm
front. In general, the rainfall this morning has been of moderate
intensity, but a few regions of training across IA, MN, and SD
have resulted in 12-hr MRMS rainfall as much as 3-4 inches and
saturated soils.

During the next few hours, a wave of low pressure developing along
the warm front will track northeast, leading to acceleration of
the downstream low-level wind field. This will result in 850mb
winds surging to 30-35 kts, forcing more pronounced isentropic
ascent as the warm front lifts northward in response. At the same
time, this will draw more intense thermodynamics northward, with
PWs above 2 inches (a daily record if measured) and MUCAPE above
1000 J/kg reaching as far north as the Twin Cities this evening.
This will allow for a rapid expansion of convection as reflected
by high res CAMs simulated reflectivity, and in this robust
environment both the HREF and REFS suggest a high probability
(60-70%) of rainfall rates exceeding 1"/hr, with 15-min rainfall
from the HRRR potentially accumulating to 0.5 - 0.75 inches (brief
3"/hr rates). Although 0-6km mean winds will remain progressive at
20-25 kts, Corfidi vectors aligned to the warm front could produce
2-3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts above 4 inches
possible.

Rainfall already this morning, as noted above, has been locally
3-4 inches, with widespread 0.5-1 inch also measured via MRMS.
This has saturated the top soils across most of the area according
to the HRRR, likely lowering FFG even beyond the analyzed
1-2"/3hrs. Even in areas that have not been as saturated, HREF
3-hr exceedance probabilities reach 20-30%, further suggestive of
the increasing flash flood risk into this evening. However, the
greatest potential for impacts will be across urban areas or
beneath any longer-term training.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Pg2UHEt3tlvhorApDLJ_LaL9xiX2f_7IFT-UYoPJjsR8ng3iEJXj1MXcQzROIt5EryC= 9XEs1PvDxXJ2V1UN8dulnpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DLH...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45749319 45419178 44879111 44159113 43839138=20
43339206 42759358 42599531 42819665 43359770=20
43919788 44539711 44879628 45339504=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251956
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-260155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0514
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Central and northeast NE, far southeast SD, and
far northwest IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251955Z - 260155Z

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this afternoon and early evening, while also training
over similar areas across central and northeast Nebraska. Hourly
rainfall rates up to around 2.5" are possible as well as the
potential for rainfall totals up to 4-5", which would promote
possible scattered instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cooling cloudtops are evident in GOES-East infrared
satelitte this afternoon as thunderstorms form along a convergent
surface trough/boundary south of a frontal boundary stretching
across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Precipitable Water
values are high in the region and are estimated between 1.7-2.0",
which equates to above the 90th climatological percentile
according to the 00z GEFS and ECENS. Additionally, moist southerly
850mb flow of 20-25kts continues to funnel these elevated moisture
values into the surface trough where thunderstorms can focus.

The most important aspect of this setup is the upwind propagation
vectors are parallel to this surface boundary and out of the
southwest, which should promote training of thunderstorms. An
instability gradient also rides along this boundary with SBCAPE
values of 3000-4500 J/kg per SPC's mesoanalysis just to the south
and in the inflow of these thunderstorms from south-central
Nebraska to western Iowa.

18z HRRR and 12z HREF seem to be handling the convection well so
far and depict the potential for hourly rates locally up to 2.5"
and scattered coverage of rainfall totals over 3". Maximum amounts
could approach 5" by 02Z tonight if should better training of
storms materialize. This area has seen rainfall lately with MRMS
analyzing an area of around 3" in central Nebraska over the last
24 hrs. 3-hr FFG is also relatively low and below 3", even as low
as 1-1.5". Given the environmental setup and antecedent
conditions, scattered instances of flash flooding are possible and
most likely over urban regions, low-lying areas, and locations
that saw heavy rain over the last 24 hrs.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6B_Y9p_f84qhpYdrtpRqh7T6PafJvwcWvHeX_CWBewcXXtiMs0LgpEqjk5fRI-qlV1cX= PHx6UX7z2-wZwDv3qqIMqr4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42959656 42899532 42419492 41829571 41059727=20
40169945 40360046 41240006 42359836=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252217
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-260415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
616 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Northern Iowa, Southeast Minnesota, and
west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252215Z - 260415Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through early tonight across portions of the Upper Midwest, while
also containing intense rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and the
potential for totals up to 4". These rainfall amounts may lead to
scattered instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A low pressure system was analyzed across southern
Minnesota at 21z with an attached warm front extending eastward
into western and southern Wisconsin while a cold front extended
westward into southern South Dakota. Recent radar and satellite
observations depict numerous strong to severe thunderstorms in the
warm sector across southeastern Minnesota and into northern Iowa,
with moderate to locally heavy stratiform rain north of the low
pressure system and attached warm front. These thunderstorms are
estimated to contain maximum hourly rainfall rates up to 2"/hr in
localized spots and are moving generally east-northeastward.
Instability is abundant across Iowa with SBCAPE values of
4000-5000 J/kg as broad southerly flow helps place this
instability perfectly in the inflow of ongoing storms. PWs also
remain high and between 1.9-2.2" per SPC's mesoanalysis page,
which would place it above the 90th climatological percentile.

21Z HRRR and 20Z experimental RRFS differ somewhat in the exact
location of heaviest amounts, but both agree on up to 4" of total
rainfall from these storms. 6-hr FFG are around 2-4" so this
plants a scenario where isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible. The upwind propagation vectors do have a
northwesterly component so while brief training of storms is
ongoing across northern Iowa and southeast MN, these storms should
become more progressive as we get into the late evening.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!65jnbVfWIvUprhnJ7gDLT2GDH9E1dVTXxeqSxEdMauFfvzZzh480LJP-Mjeq0rNg7d2k= 8PucvUm-zwAwydU_7yZVQlM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45339175 44889028 44228951 43518968 42859122=20
42449294 42219429 42299518 42769530 43409449=20
44209363 45209285=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252356
FFGMPD
SDZ000-WYZ000-260555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0516
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...South-central into southwest South Dakota and far
northeast Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252355Z - 260555Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms along a stationary boundary
are expected to merge with approaching convection ejecting
eastward out of the High Plains this evening, with the potential
for 1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates and scattered totals up to 4" across
south-central South Dakota. This may lead to a few instances of
flash flooding, particularly for areas with soils primed from
previous rainfall today.

DISCUSSION...A stationary boundary analyzed at 23Z draped across
southern South Dakota has been aiding to anchor slow-moving storms
in southwestern South Dakota this afternoon and should see
convection continue, while also interacting with convection
ejecting eastward from northeast Wyoming. MRMS depicts a few of
these storms have produced anywhere from 1.5-3.0" this afternoon.

Aside from the lifting mechanisms associated with the stationary
boundary in the area, this part of the country remains in the RFQ
of an upper jet streak and in an area of elevated PWs in the
1.0-1.5" range (above climatology). Instability and effective bulk
shear also remain modest with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and
effective shear of 40-50 kts in western SD. Therefore,
thunderstorms should be able to maintain strength for several
hours after sunset and should contain efficient rainfall rates to
potentially lead to scattered flash flooding. The experimental
RRFS and REFS seem to have somewhat better handle on current
convection compared to other CAMs. The REFS also happens to have
the highest probabilities for 3-hr rainfall amounts greater than
3" by 06z tonight. These greatest chances occur within a region
where 3-hr FFG in south-central South Dakota are in the 1.5-3"
range. Given atmospheric and soil conditions as well as current
radar trends, there exists the potential for isolated flash
flooding chances early tonight.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xRPBf3tA4vWBos6qybKaeni01YvYhj4ZsBmz2Dah6Yc-Lubk-BOCkDGxRjN5RWGQxdb= hcU_zMR6fE2Q5VXl8c4En-M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45130315 44530143 44009991 43669956 43239990=20
43070141 43200338 43640420 44300447 44890422=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260145
FFGMPD
IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-260745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0517
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
944 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Much of central and eastern Nebraska, far
northern Kansas, and western Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260145Z - 260745Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm activity combined with renewed
convection tonight associated with an approaching upper shortwave
trough is expected to continue the threat for scattered flash
flooding. Additional rainfall totals in excess of 3" appear likely
in spots, which should spawn new and renewed scattered instances
of flash flooding across already saturated parts of central
Nebraska into western Iowa.

DISCUSSION...Overall setup remains similar to this afternoon and
early evening with a well-defined outflow boundary depicted by
GOES-EAST IR satellite imagery stretching from central Iowa into
southern Nebraska, focusing convection overruning to the north
while progressing northeastward. Meanwhile, an approaching upper
shortwave over the central/northern High Plains is responsible for
scattered convection currently over western Nebraska and eastern
Colorado. This activity is expected to enter central Nebraska by
about 04Z or so along with scattered thunderstorms maintaining
along the instability gradient associated with the aforementioned
outflow boundary.

PWs remain elevated and in the 1.6-2.1" range (well above
climatology), along with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg.
Meanwhile, mid-level southerly flow also remains modest around
25-30 kts and should increase with time in response to the
approaching shortwave and nocturnal low level jet. This should aid
in isentropic ascent and greater coverage of intense rainfall
rates. Latest HRRR, HREF, and experimental RRFS/REFS are all in
line the potential for an additional 3" of rain over areas that
have received 2-4" of rainfall over the last 24 hours per MRMS.
FFG in this region depicts many areas with 3-hrly values under 2"
and the 18z HREF has a stripe of 30-60 percent exceedence
probabilities (although probably displaced a bit too far to the
north given the latest southerly trends and sinking outflow
boundary). For this reason, additional scattered flash flooding
tonight is deemed likely.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5q5aAHo5jtn0N35EVSziHMQXrr0MRrchagREUGdhs1Fkohxze_y7_Bk9lay9jrgn3Waq= oO5Lw8Yln8NkX_2reUX8z0U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42549705 42549530 41529504 40359693 39799887=20
39800057 40320153 41250136 42019923=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260747
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-261346-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0518
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...much of Nebraska, western Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260746Z - 261346Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues - especially near Grand
Island, NE where 5-10 inches of rainfall has occurred over the
past 12 hours.

Discussion...Extensive flash flood impacts have occurred near
Grand Island, NE earlier, where a couple of convective bands began
to train over the region and produce 3-6 inches of rainfall over
the past 6 hours. Since that time, upscale growth and slight
weakening of convection across south-central Nebraska has enabled
the heaviest rain to propagate just east of the Grand Island
region.

Unfortunately, an upstream mid-level impulse and convergence on
the nose of 40-kt 850mb flow over Kansas to produce renewed
convection across west-central Nebraska. These storms will allow
for continued rainfall and perhaps another 1 inch of rain on top
of prior significant rainfall, potentially exacerbating impacts
near the Grand Island area. This additional rainfall risk will
persist for at least another 3 hours or so (through 1030Z/5:30am
CDT) until the upstream mid-level impulse passes the region.

Additional rainfall will persist east of Grand Island through
Columbus, Omaha Metro, and portions of western Iowa through 13Z/8a
CDT. Rain rates should remain relatively low with this activity
due to modest instability and appreciable (30-kt) movement,
although prior rainfall (as much as 3-5 inches along this axis)
have lowered FFG thresholds and made ground conditions
sensitive/conducive for excessive runoff. Another 1-2 inches of
rainfall along this axis could contribute to isolated/continued
flash flooding this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!660RDQVwhQ_JLiGJwL0-ycC7Ntvk-y0Ae1_dO8cUkgI72PGxXmyuryxESTa5kOtl_LaH= MAyEbw4WCLQwH0U7emlxWsI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43109403 42439339 41599368 40889554 40269810=20
40150037 40600098 41470061 42119875 42659595=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261550
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-262130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0519
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Northern & Western IA...Southern MN...Far Eastern
NEB...Far Southwest WI...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261550Z - 262130Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered elevated convection with some repeating
elements will increase in coverage/surface rooting throughout the
afternoon with 1.5-2"/hr rates and streaks of 2-3.5" totals over
sensitive solids suggesting possible incidents of flash flooding
by 21z.

DISCUSSION...15z Surface analysis shows main surface low near
Norfolk, NEB with well defined cold front dragging southwest into
north-central KS east of Hill City; while downstream a pre-frontal
pressure trof, generally along the core of the deeper layer
moisture axis/warm conveyor belt extends from another weak low
near CKP through Omaha/Council Bluffs into northeast KS and is
well noted by alto-stratus deck with some isolated weaker
convective cores where sfc to boundary layer convergence is
maximized across western IA. East of that, clear skies in the
warm sector extend to the surface front being strongly reinforced
through differential heating with extensive low-stratus deck along
the eastern MN/IA border into the Driftless area of SW WI.=20
SBCAPEs are rising into the upper 3000s J/kg across the clearing,
though solid southerly WAA/ moisture flux along the pressure trof
of 35-40kts, isentropic ascent is starting to increase elevated
convective development along and downstream of the DPVA from the
upper-level trough. Combine this with highly favorable right
entrance ascent/divergence across NW IA into south-central MN,
convection will continue to develop/expand over the next few
hours.=20=20

Orientation of the frontal zone to the mean motion of the
shortwave combined with the steepened isentropes further east,
ascent pattern across north-central IA/southern-MN should see
greatest convective development with stronger/broader updrafts.=20
Combined with increasing flux convergence, efficient rainfall
production will support rates of 1.5-2"/hr fairly quickly in the
life-cycle. Additionally, the convergence axis will be broad and
fairly parallel to the boundary and deeper layer flow to support
some repeating cell motions/tracks. This will be key toward
increased overall rainfall totals nearing 3-3.5" locally given
individual cell motions may limit heavy rainfall duration to those
1.5-2" hourly totals.=20

Hydrologically, the area remains very saturated with much of IA
and southern MN having 0-40cm relative soil moisture ratios within
the 60-70% range, generally well into the 90th+ percentiles
helping to have confidence that hourly FFG values of 1-1.5" and
3hr at 1.5-2" within the area of concern. Combine this with the
narrow axis of training cells from last night from Colfax/Dodge,
NEB to Ida/Sac to Humbolt/Wright in IA and Fillmore, MN/Howard, IA
further compromising upper-soil uptake. Scattered incidents of
flash flooding will become increasingly likely toward 21z across
the MPD area.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5_8mSO93A9qsx1cGZVRKMn6SzeJ1LMzQavB1wSmR622XxfJ7gW1yebX37K1_RhN1vL43= U9kCrmT0t150CfHH2NLjUbk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44909147 44539068 43729072 43139170 42659272=20
41149501 40889599 41289672 41919666 42409646=20
43649553 44249460 44879298=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261945
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-270145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0520
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261945Z - 270145Z

SUMMARY...Increasing number of thunderstorms will producing
downpours containing hourly rainfall rates >2"/hr in some cases.
Flash flooding is possible in impacted areas, especially areas
with saturated soils and within more urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...The Mid-Atlantic is caught between a series of
converging surface boundaries. A back-door cold front is
approaching from the east, marching through the Delaware Valley
and slowly making its way towards the northern neck of the
Chesapeake Bay. To the north and west, a stationary front and the
added help of a lake breeze off Lake Erie has triggered
thunderstorms over northeast Ohio that are tracking southeast into
western PA. Plus, strong surface based heating has been unfolding
across the region that is causing a burgeoning field of
cumulonimbus clouds along the Central Appalachians. The 12Z IAD
RAOB showed a convective temp of 93F, which most areas from
southeast PA on south through MD and into northern VA have all
reached as of 19Z. Storms are initiating within an environment
that is likely to have anywhere from 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and PWs that range between 1.75" from western and central PA to

2.0" from the DC/Baltimore area on east to the northern DelMarVa

Peninsula. Vertical wind shear soundings show generally weak shear
aloft, making storm modes largely pulse-like in nature. However,
outflow boundaries emanating from these first batch of storms will
fire additional thunderstorms that congeal into larger clusters in
parts of the Mid-Atlantic this evening.

The 12Z HREF's probabilistic guidance is keying in on the greater
DC/Baltimore metro area on north into the Lower Susquehanna Valley
with the low-to-moderate chances (30-60%, highest probs in the DC
metro area on east to the MD Eastern Shore) for >3" of rainfall
between 21-03Z this evening. Farther west, thunderstorms
propagating southeast from western OH will be a focus for
additional thunderstorm development, as will areas along and north
of I-80 where differential heating is becoming more pronounced.
Some thunderstorms will be capable of producing >2"/hr rainfall
rates given the available instability and moisture parameters,
making places with sensitive soils (>80% 0-40cm soil saturation in
northern WV, western and central PA) and heavier urbanized
environments particularly susceptible to flash flooding this
evening. Thunderstorm coverage should begin to fade after 03Z
given the marginal vertical wind shear aloft and loss of daytime
heating.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!44u1H162CiRzIW4v0puCGh5DcWdvRc6LmTYRYg6EhoYVUNk91MbCXcA34YBafbFdAMhp= d-vo7yqUw7nQpuTKnICS2gE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41827623 41367525 40217554 39507507 38347547=20
37847628 37867748 37917902 38597966 40078014=20
40907993 41327907 41587753=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262100
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-270243-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0521
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Central WI...Northeast IA...Southeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262058Z - 270243Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase along and north of a
frontal boundary draped over southern WI this afternoon and
evening. Repeating rounds of strong thunderstorms both along the
frontal boundary and with assistance from approaching storms from
the west may cause flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis shows the location of the
west-to-east oriented frontal boundary well, with a more organized
complex of storms over southeast MN as a remnant MCV tracks
towards central WI. Strong 925-850mb theta-e advection is underway
over the Upper Midwest and will slowly inch the stationary front
north as a warm front this evening. The influence of this
low-level theta-e advection is evident in the increasing MUCAPE
field in central WI as RTMA 3-hr trends show as much as 600-1,000
J/kg MUCAPE increases over the past 3-hours alone. The Upper
Midwest remains ideally positioned beneath the diffluent
right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak and PWs are steadily
rising. By 00Z tonight, the highlighted region is expected to see
PWs range between 1.75-2.0", which is generally above the 97.5
climatological percentile per ECMWF ensemble guidance. With MUCAPE
along the boundary near 2,000 J/kg, and even areas as far north as
Green Bay likely to see up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, the stage is set
for widespread thunderstorms that could contain up to 2"/hr
rainfall rates.

Aiding in the efficient rainfall production is the presence of
vertical wind shear and helicity. Effective bulk shear values >40
kts and effective SRH values >100 m2/s2 support thunderstorms
potentially sustaining mesocyclones, which are very efficient
rainfall producers. In addition, low-mid level RH values are
averaging close to 90% and warm cloud layers per the 18Z RAP for
this evening are pegged to be as deep as 13,000ft. West-Central WI
also sports highly saturated soils with NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil
moisture percentiles well above the 90th percentile. As isentropic
ascent and low-level moisture advection increase along and ahead
of the approaching surface trough, there is the concern for
repeated rounds of thunderstorms in parts of the region. Once the
cold front approaches the region between 00-02Z, storm motions
over central WI should be more continuous off to the north and
east. Until then, however, there is a concern for training storms
across portions of central WI, far southeast MN, and far northeast
IA. Flash flooding is possible this evening, particularly in areas
with sensitive soils and where storms train along and north of the
frontal boundary in southern WI.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PrKLtHq8DOxC7ZqVoyNuSVkYvemtuwUdcwVPlfGhdVUgq7Y8wicvr8DPXOXC1wWkZbY= QRfdjODtG7KwXdqHL0K5LVg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45329101 45168840 44458740 43388785 43118856=20
43048972 42779142 43249248 43759278 44959268=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262202
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-270200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OH...Northern WV Panhandle...Southwest PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262200Z - 270200Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of storms to continue for the next
several hours, prolonging the flash flood threat into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar shows scattered, slow-moving
thunderstorms from southwest Ohio and along the Ohio River on east
to far southwest Pennsylvania. The region does lie at the nose of
an unusually strong 50kt ESErly 200mb jet located over the
Southeast. This additional synoptic-scale influence is helping to
provide some upper-level support in a setup that is otherwise
heavily driven by daytime heating and nearby mesoscale boundaries
(outflows, lake breeze off Lake Eire most notably). Storms will
have as much as 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE at their disposal through the
remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. PWs are also
ranging between 1.8-2.0", supporting the ongoing Excessive
Rainfall rates being observed in central and southwest OH.

Additional thunderstorms will likely come about as a result of
outflow boundaries emanating from ongoing convection, as well as
outflows colliding with other nearby outflow boundaries. Vertical
wind shear is light, making these storms highly dependent upon
cold-pool driven processes and congealing clusters of storms. With
a couple more hours of daylight to go, more storms are likely to
take advantage of the unstable/moist environment, as well as from
the help of an anomalous 200mb jet streak aloft. Additional rounds
of flash flooding are possible within the highlighted at-risk
region through the remainder of this afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-UI0_WE3YdeAaBCDjVGjANfyRYBQFeXH5JajsrwAlwZTdOES9OzNsTm49MaLSml6A27O= tbOy6cI2LB89R-hplSgwzlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40848340 40828140 40528027 39738023 39118046=20
38578168 38708279 38668375 39568409 40608399=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262256
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Southern & Central WV...Southwest VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262255Z - 270300Z

SUMMARY...As rounds of slow moving strong thunderstorms continue
to flare up this afternoon, additional areas of flash flooding are
possible. Areas along steep terrain are most at-risk, as well as
in low-lying valleys.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms flaring up across southwest VA and
southern WV have had a history of producing Excessive Rainfall
rates with some elevated streamflow magnitudes evident in and
around the Radford, VA area. The environment remains favorable for
at least several more hours with mesoanalysis showing MLCAPE
values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg and PWs of 1.7-1.9" for much of
the highlighted area. These storms are also feeling the effects of
a rather strong ESErly 200mb jet located over the Carolinas. These
winds are unusual in terms of both strength its direction (ESE)
which may be allowing for enhanced upper-level divergence over the
region. Additional thunderstorm development will be largely due to
outflow boundaries and congealing cold pools. The lack of
sufficient vertical wind shear should keep these storms relatively
short-lived (1-2 hours generally), but given the environmental
parameters and some synoptic-scale support aloft, as much as 2-4"
worth of rainfall could occur within the next few hours within the
more intense storms. With that said, additional flash flooding is
possible for the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening.
Areas most at-risk are within low-lying valleys or along steep
terrain.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4zH1lzES44c8WhQPNcoHxBUmakDdQj_gL4LajHoUlUdGRQj6MiOBPUM1mmo9otuxz60o= PoUzXPapyo8V70w4TgTLPhk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39238006 38417985 37887970 37317950 36928001=20
36948088 37148183 37698229 38398226 38728112=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270154
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-270450-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0524
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
952 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Northern VA...Eastern MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270150Z - 270450Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue across portions of northern
VA and eastern MD for a few more hours. Hourly rainfall rates up
to 2"/hr are possible with urbanized areas most prone to flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...Outflow boundaries emanating from several different
afternoon thunderstorm complexes have collided over northern VA,
while a cold front races in from the DelMarVa Peninsula. This cold
front is helping to ignite thunderstorms near Annapolis while the
outflows have triggered storms from the southern Capital Beltway
on west to the south of Interstate 66. The 00Z IAD RAOB shows
depicts a more tropical air-mass aloft, highlighted by PWs of
2.34" and MUCAPE >3,500 J/kg. This atmospheric setup is resulting
in tropical-downpour rainfall rates with MRMS 15-minute
radar-estimated rainfall rates ranging between 0.5-1.0" within the
storms stretching from Routes 28 & 17 on east towards the MD
Eastern Shore. The lack of vertical wind shear should ultimately
lead to these cells dissipating within the next few hours.
However, these storms are packing quite the punch with >2.0"/hr
rainfall amounts likely to be realized in some of these areas. The
flash flood threat continues across northern VA on east to the MD
Eastern Shore this evening with the more urbanized communities
within the "DMV" most at-risk for flooding should storms ensue
over more densely populated locations.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-3uVZE8jo8fpOXVfUcofGTXdgVnK-OgMeMcVQbJm7ATeJrEqQF5NbhcCbTw4m8SkDQZ1= nCxzP2WssMx6sm3QhsL_Q30$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39157657 39157618 38967600 38677591 38467602=20
38137631 37907662 37577726 37427752 37337803=20
37397831 37517855 37707882 37827904 38027932=20
38357925 38597901 38807864 38977821 39117766=20
39127715=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270510
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-270908-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0525
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
109 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...northern/central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270508Z - 270908Z

Summary...A complex of strong convection near/northeast of Kansas
City was prompting training storms and areas of 1.5+ inch/hr rain
rates. Flash flooding is possible as storms migrate from west to
east across the discussion area through 09Z/4am CDT.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, convection along an axis
from near Topeka, KS to near Kirksville, MO has grown upscale into
a linear complex oriented parallel to modest steering flow aloft.=20
The presence of 25 knots of 850mb flow has also aided in
organization while maintaining influx of a very moist/unstable
airmass (2+ inch PW values and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) into the complex.
A series of weak midlevel shortwave troughs just upstream of the
complex have also fostered continued convective development. The
orientation of the cells has fostered training, with recent MRMS
estimates of 2 inch/hr rain rates now noted about 30 miles
southwest of CDJ/Chillicothe, MO.

Despite modest boundary layer cooling, both observations and model
guidance suggest that the ongoing complex should continue for at
least another 2-4 hours tonight while continuing to maintain an
orientation for training cells. 2 inch/hr rain rates should
continue to threaten FFG thresholds across the region while
translating very slowly southward and eastward in tandem with the
complex. The orientation/propagation of the complex should spread
the risk of heaviest rainfall toward the I-70 corridor in central
Missouri through 09Z/4am CDT. Flash flooding will also remain
possible through that time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7DoO1EKEqme3-4D7dNd9oThczapU6sVC65R8Rxs7OBBlVoKxYJiaEMeMjzKAMtFQvZ2T= y7DVdGrOAFb8fN8U7gHGljc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39739370 39579222 39139136 38619153 38599392=20
38989467 39429485=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271529
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0526
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Middle TN...Northern AL...South-central KY...Adj
Northeast MS & Northwest GA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271530Z - 272100Z

SUMMARY...Highly focused/efficient heavy rain bursts with
localized 2-2.5" in less than 90 minutes may pose similarly
focused incidents of flash flooding, particularly near urban
areas.

DISCUSSION...A very humid/unstable airmass exists across Middle TN
extending into south-central KY and northern AL. GOES-E WV suite
shows a very broad, well defined TUTT (Tropical upper-tropospheric
trough) cell retrograding across the southeast with the core over
central GA attm; resulting in an area of enhanced low to mid-level
moisture (per CIRA LPW) and clearing across the area of concern.=20
Thermal profiles denote solid saturation, weak capping and just
small adjustments of the surface profiles result in large MLCAPE
values over 3000-4000 J/kg. With solid morning insolation in the
clearing east of the outer cirrus deck of the TUTT cells,
temperatures are already reaching required values for convective
initiation reaching mid-80s and Tds in the mid to upper 70s.=20
Visible imagery and RADAR mosaic show the incipient boiling Tcu
expanding across southern Middle TN into N AL. Combined with the
best heating, there is some modest upper-level divergence at the
western exit of the 40-50kt 3H jet on the northeast side of the
TUTT before it arcs northward across central KY. As such,
stronger updrafts will become scattered to numerous but given weak
inflow in the low levels should remain narrow initially.

Overall vertical loading of the available moisture given strength
of the updraft should support wet-microburst/pulse downdrafts
capable of 2-2.25" totals in sub-hourly to hourly duration.=20
Outflows will trigger next updraft development and any colliding
outflows will result in a larger slab ascent for the subsequent
up/downdraft cycles; though similar results are likely to occur of
up to 2" totals. Overall the pattern support a broad outward
propagation from the initial centroid over southern TN/N AL more
in line with the 12z ARW solutions.=20

Any flash flooding is likely to be limited in areal coverage
(though broadening slightly with each cycle/broader downdrafts,
but still sub-county focused); with greatest potential across
impermeable surfaces near urban centers. However, 1hr FFG values
are in the 1.5-2" range across S TN/northern AL where 0-40cm
relative making potential a bit greater in these areas.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!63GCCt2wWdVbrzxIQgMnreX_Gls426haxKUJ5YmUot8d5SR6BCXB7_oIlOoCQyrz95hR= 4L-_vWHRmxS38hSR6jrG_cU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37668597 37468452 36938414 36328424 35578470=20
34578524 33828582 33498674 33878818 34658876=20
35698870 36788797 37398707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271652
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0527
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Eastern WV...Western and Northwestern
VA...Western PA...Far Western MD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271700Z - 272300Z

SUMMARY...Incidents of flash flooding, potentially significant,
are likely to increase over the next few hours in complex/steep
terrain.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows well defined CAD due to
back-door cold front dropping through the Mid-Atlantic this
morning. The cold front has pressed to just south of the VA/NC
boarder and has banked up through the Blue Ridge toward the
Eastern Continental Divide Ridge in the wind field but the stratus
deck leaves about 25-50 miles of gap of clearing with strong Td
gradient even a few more miles further into the stratus deck. As
such, surface Tds to low to mid-70s are pooled along the front
from SW NY across W PA into the central Appalachian Range. As
further insolation occurs temperatures are rising into the low to
mid-80s and modified (deeply saturated) 12z RAOB profiles from PBZ
and RAP suggest solid MLCAPEs of 2000 J/kg are probable toward
peak in the next hour or two even with a narrow-skinny profile.=20
Total moisture profiles remain above normal in the 1.75-2" range.=20


Upstream, the tail end of enhanced moisture and low-level
southwesterly speed max provided enough ascent to break out a
cluster of thunderstorms which is starting to develop southward
into SE OH; this is a timing of enhanced upslope flow from the
west with increased moisture/higher theta-E air downstream of the
main upper-level trof over the Great Lakes. This will combine
with strengthening upslope flow from the moist post-frontal 'cold'
air damming (CAD) further strengthening moisture flux convergence
to break out scattered to numerous thunderstorms across W PA
toward E WV/NW VA. This is likely to persist throughout the
afternoon into evening given upstream trof strength and
approaching height-falls. So while deep layer steering may lead
to eastward propagation into the stable air across central PA into
the Capital District region, favorable upstream
redevelopment/flanking line support is probable for multiple
up/downdraft cycles with main motions driven by cold pools/outflow
likely southward into west-central VA/SE WV through the evening
hours. Total deep layer moisture, strong updraft/unstable
environment will support solid flux to support 2"/hr rates and
given the aforementioned motions this may support localized totals
of 2-4" in short-duration. Given complex cell motions and shear
rainfall intensity expected, an incident or two of considerable to
significant flash flooding is plausible as well.

Given naturally lower FFG values due to complex terrain, flash
flooding is considered likely; yet, recent heavy rainfall will
further limit infiltration to the saturated deeper soil profiles,
especially in SW PA where 0-40cm soil moisture remains well into
the 90th percentile.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6tCpTMK-blfFSlmSnb5X2ivIL_Eei3kCEC7Y139eCbDnU8GpvmGbYuV65-PFrzjTKTEh= tk2ooJI7YemysqXdbLvCxzY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41917883 41507851 40387890 39577797 39037791=20
38607814 37817889 37098013 37348123 38178071=20
39687991 40358027 41198027 41617949=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271731
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-272230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0528
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OH...Northwest PA...Western Upstate
NY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271730Z - 272230Z

SUMMARY...Narrow corridor of unstable air. Multiple rounds of efficient/intense thunderstorms may result in spots of 2-4" and
possible localized flash flooding through the evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E shows developing thunderstorms within a narrow
unstable axis between the colder Lower Great Lakes and a strong
differential heating boundary due to low level stratus across
central NY and PA. Insolation has lead to temperatures reaching
the mid-80s, but return southerly flow both along the western edge
of the stratus and southwesterly upslope flow out of the Ohio
Valley continues to transport fairly moist low level moisture into
the mid-70s. Short-wave ridge aloft is starting to shift out of
the region, though oblique right entrance ascent pattern remains
across the area to help to aid updrafts starting to develop
upstream of the mean height-falls across northern OH. As such a
narrow axis of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPEs exists along the Lakes
and will act to corral upstream development helping increase the
potential for cells to repeat/train as the main forcing presses
through this evening.

The downstream cells are likely to remain fairly stationary given
upstream propagation vectors with south/southwesterly inflow and
strong stability gradient to the east. Total deep layer moisture
nearing 2", will support efficient rainfall and rates of
1.75-2"/hr. Given the development environment/potential for
repeating, there is potential for some localized totals of 2-4",
which may result in possible incidents of flash flooding through
the afternoon into evening hours especially in proximity to larger
urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7vWCktZ-AWBMfgI_do6X0cG-RFDKQF_MdUkknzCl76oituZYuCEDMiNNv4aF71OPRUhp= WwR-NRwaolM2xGyPNBskE2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43387739 42967668 42107748 41297919 40588163=20
41368223 42048066 42677922 43327901=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271803
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0529
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...The Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271801Z - 280000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms expanding across Missouri will
intensify through the afternoon. Rainfall rates may peak above
2"/hr at times within these slow moving storms, possibly leading
to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
convection rapidly expanding along what appears to be an old
outflow boundary downstream of a cold front draped NE to SW across
southern Missouri. Ascent along this boundary is occurring due to
convergence, but is being aided by synoptic lift through the RRQ
of a jet streak arcing to the northeast and a shortwave moving
eastward across KS. This lift is impinging into robust
thermodynamics characterized by a ribbon of PWs of over 2 inches,
near record for the date, combined with SBCAPE over 3000 J/kg
fueled by steep lapse rates within the 850-600mb layer noted on
the morning regional UA soundings. In this environment,
thunderstorms have rapidly blossomed, with additional updrafts
quickly expanding as noted on the GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB,
suggesting the rain rates that are currently estimated to be above
2"/hr from KSGF will only intensify the next few hours.

Storms that have developed already are not moving quickly. The
0-6km mean wind is only around 10 kts to the NE, but more
concerning are Corfidi vectors aligned anti-parallel to the mean
wind and collapsed to just 5 kts or less. This is dictating the
slow storm motion already noted, and will support backbuilding of
echoes into the greater instability to the SW as 850mb inflow
remains from the W/SW at 10-20 kts. This will result in some areas
receiving multiple rounds, or experiencing a long duration, of
heavy rainfall. With the HREF (REFS) probabilities for 2"/hr
reaching 20-30% (30-50%), this suggests brief rain rates of 3"/hr
are also likely, which is additionally supported by HRRR 15-min
rainfall peaking around 0.75" through this evening. Where these
rates train or stall through backbuilding, 2-3" of rainfall is
expected, with locally as much as 5" possible.

The slow movement of these intense rates could quickly overwhelm
soils leading to runoff, especially in urban areas. However, NASA
SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture also reflects recent wetness across the
area, as soil moisture near the AR/MO border and into far eastern
OK are in the 80th-90th percentile. Despite FFG that is quite high
across the region (2.5-4"/3hrs), there is at least a 20-30% chance
of exceedance due to the slow movement of these intense rain
rates, further suggesting the increasing flash flood risk through
this evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Vh1-2_CCShQunh7CZpg9lXZ8zlwnD-xm7TXgSoFXQ0Snjn1HT9n5l4qJTVQO1-kDfOw= mpb4JEReYSI6G0ZNSE7B3oo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38689096 38559036 38109002 37728990 37079024=20
36249096 35739195 35489287 35449416 35609524=20
35819583 36269632 36779633 37219599 37589502=20
38039353=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271813
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271815Z - 280000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorm clusters (mainly near mountain
ranges) capable of 1.5"/hr rates and localized totals to 2.5" may
induce flash flooding conditions, especially

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows convective activity
breaking through old convective debris in proximity to axis of
deep layer enhanced moisture. CIRA LPW notes return surface
moisture has pushed up through the Davis mountains toward the
southern Sacramento Range with upper 50s to low 60F Tds; the
850-500mb layers, show the core axis of moisture though the
southwestern edge of the exiting northern stream trough and the
western edge/influence of the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough
(TUTT) cell over S Nuevo Leon; bring overall moisture totals to
1.25-1.5" around the 90-95th percentile. The old MCV appears to
be providing solid deep layer confluence/convergence in proximity
to the terrain for enhanced upslope for stronger thunderstorm
activity and with ample buoyancy with 1000+ J/kg of CAPE, moisture
flux will support rates of 1-1.5"/hr in the cores.

With the shortwave/old MCV in close proximity and deep layer
steering generally weak, drawing toward the northeast; cell
motions will be slow to allow for further duration along the
terrain and supporting localized totals up to 2-2.5", with highest probabilities within the Davis Mountains into the southern
Sacramento Range. This places a few fresher burn scars at risk of
being hit further enhancing the potential of rapid runoff and
mud/debris slides. As such, flash flooding is considered possible
through the late evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_v6QSyi7DecHMe43juVS_Xl6PN0XsbUbhKR7HuAyDdGYc7PA_Pi3pit4JJHjIpLokUtI= NmPgsEoAjxod_IbjZwxM3vc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34350560 33910486 33660387 33620316 32880314=20
32590358 32160375 31460333 30680299 30280307=20
30000352 29950405 30340471 30830515 31170557=20
31760592 32580611 33180646 33950626=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271841
FFGMPD
FLZ000-280045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0531
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271845Z - 280045Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms along the sea breeze boundary
will drift slowly westward or stall through the evening. Rainfall
rates of 2-3+"/hr are likely, which could result in isolated
rainfall amounts approaching 5". Isolated flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
widespread showers and thunderstorms ongoing along the east coast
of the Florida Peninsula. These storms are blossoming within
impressive thermodynamics characterized by SBCAPE of 3000-5000
J/kg overlapped with PWs above 2 inches. Although deep layer
ascent is modest beneath an upper ridge, convergence along this
sea breeze will continue to force updrafts to drive convection,
with additional storms developing along outflows and storm mergers
within a region of weak 0-6km bulk shear.

Radar-estimated rainfall rates from KMLB have been as high as
2"/hr already this aftn, but storm lifetimes have been short in
the pulse environment. This is likely to remain the evolution
through tonight, but guidance indicates that a plume of enhanced
bulk shear may spread into eastern FL this evening, helping to
force at least modest storm organization as outflows and storm
mergers occur. This could enhance the duration of heavy rainfall
in a few areas as clusters move chaotically across the region due
to the offsetting motion between the westward advancing sea breeze
and mean S/SW 0-6km wind. With rainfall rates forecast by both the
HREF and REFS to have a moderate chance (40-60%) of exceeding
2"/hr, and the HRRR 15-min rainfall indicates up to 1" at times
(short duration 4"/hr rainfall), these slow motions could produce
2-4" of rain with higher amounts above 5" possible (10-20% chance)
in isolated locations.

There remains uncertainty into exactly where the heaviest rain
will occur through this evening, but the pinned sea breeze and
resultant clusters of storms should force the focus to be from the
Space Coast southward as shown by HREF and REFS PMM, and supported
by the synoptic flow. While FFG is high across the area, should
any of these storms stall across the urban east coast, instances
of flash flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6OhYw0UuIKzzosHS_vuSFQyotQ3x8U_v3PGqXJG0XXBnjiv6SHB_7E0ME90OhGvOzZp1= jV55Kr030FeoCFfoZ1T4m3E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29348116 29138085 28498036 28018026 26847986=20
26187995 25658018 25488036 25618048 25948073=20
26408098 26958121 27648140 28348149 28998140=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272035
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-280230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0532
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272033Z - 280230Z

Summary...Scattered pulse thunderstorms will develop through the
evening across the Central and Southern Appalachians. Rainfall
rates may briefly reach 3"/hr, producing short duration rainfall
of 1-2". This could result in instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon shows
widespread convective development across the Appalachians. In
general, these cells are discrete and scattered in a weakly forced
environment, but local enhancement due to terrain features or
storm mergers/outflow collisions have resulted in scattered
clusters across the region as well. Thermodynamics today are
favorable for heavy rainfall as PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches are
collocated with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent is
generally provided via low-level upslope flow into the terrain and
surface convergence along mergers/collisions, but weak diffluence
aloft is also providing modest ascent in the area. Together, this
ascent working into the favorable environment has produced
radar-estimated rain rates of 1.5 to 2 inches per hour.

The CAMs are in generally good agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will continue to develop and move chaotically
through loss of instability or convective overturning this
evening. Mean 0-6km winds of just 5-10 kts combined with minimal
bulk shear will provide a setup that supports primarily pulse
convection with limited temporal duration. However, both the HREF
and REFS ensembles indicate a moderate to high chance (50-70%) of
at least 1"/hr rates leading to short-term rainfall as much as
1-2", and 15-min rainfall from the HRRR as much as 0.75" (brief
3"/hr rates). With storms expected to just drift across the area,
any storm that occurs atop sensitive terrain or more urban areas
could result in instances of flash flooding.

While the threat is expected to be generally isolated, there is
some potential in the next few hours of a more focused area of
convection in KY and eastern TN. Here, pulse storms developing to
the east will drift NW (along with outflows) and potentially merge
with clusters coming out of the west. Some merging of these cells
is shown, albeit with a lot of spatial spread, on the HRRR,
NAM3km, and RRFS, which could briefly enhance the convection and
accompanying heavy rainfall rate. Should this occur over some of
the more sensitive soils (FFG as low as 1.5-2"/3hrs) it could
cause a slightly higher risk for instances of flash flooding than
the more isolated pulse type storms forecast across most of the
area.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5i5gGy-GjUUQ_3mf5l7eCJCUSsq73Lp0t65-bkUqYqqbT4H_31ah0VArZtE9Ma0vKEPn= pTdpHPl5fO6pdtLYlmQDyg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38768309 38568231 38268169 38058093 37368059=20
36588093 35798137 35338181 34908248 34538358=20
34528441 34818500 35458507 37038477 38368414=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272135
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0533
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
534 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Western Kentucky, Central and Western Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272133Z - 280200Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
lift slowly northward into the evening. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr or
more will result in 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts
possible. This may result in instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic shows clusters of
thunderstorms continuing to move slowly across central and western
Tennessee this evening, with additional storms pushing into
southern Kentucky. This convection has been ongoing for several
hours, but is maintaining intensity due to 925-850mb winds drawing
more robust thermodynamics (PWS 1.9 inches and SBCAPE above 3000
J/kg) northward for support. Convection is continuing to deepen
and regenerate as noted via the GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB which
shows both fresh updrafts and overshooting tops in a region of
increased Lightning Cast probabilities. Rainfall rates within this
convection have been estimated via KOHX and KHPX WSR-88Ds to
exceed 2, and even 3, inches per hour this aftn.

During the next few hours, despite the modest 850mb inflow (15
kts), convection should sustain as it lifts slowly northward in
advance of a weak shortwave across south-central TN. Weak overall
forcing and negligible bulk shear will maintain generally pulse
type thunderstorms, but mergers and outflow collisions will help
support at least periodic brief organization into clusters, and
result in additional convective development. Rainfall rates should
remain intense, reaching 2-3"/hr at times as reflected by HREF and
REFS probabilities, with HRRR 15-min rainfall exceeding 0.75" in
some places suggesting brief rates even above 3"/hr. With storm
motions progged to remain slow on 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10
kts, this could cause total rainfall of 1-3" with locally higher
amounts in some areas.

Soil moisture across TN and KY is generally above normal according
to NASA SPoRT, reaching above the 90th percentile with respect to
0-40cm depths in some areas. However, extrapolating out the
current reflectivity for several hours, and combining this with
the HREF/REFS probabilities for 3"/6hrs, suggests the greatest
risk for heavy rain will actually occur atop the less sensitive
antecedent soils of western KY and TN. This may somewhat limit the
flash flood risk as the FFG is higher across those areas. However,
the slow movement of these intense rainfall rates, at least
through the onset of nocturnal stabilization, could still promote
instances of flash flooding even as they become become more
isolated the next few hours.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TEmpHV95G-AZyzDNgB1RAWIIq1eQi8AKnFAmyuECQWjh0mqCfy4-T9YqJFvpeBgipjZ= tQ3tiVyj9nO7j0QNANEw_W0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38028600 37458537 36728473 35968479 35088506=20
34918541 34998572 35278638 35518702 35398809=20
35168889 35078979 35449004 36408944 37318866=20
37968720=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272252
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-280400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0534
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
652 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians and interior Mid-Atlantic
states

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272251Z - 280400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage along a stalled front through this evening. Rainfall
rates within this convection will increase to 1-2"/hr, producing
1-3" of rain in just a few hours, with locally higher amounts
possible. This rain falling atop saturated soils and sensitive
terrain may result in flash flooding.

Discussion...The fading GOES-E visible imagery this evening
combined with the GLM flash-extent lightning density product
indicate that convection is continuing to expand and intensify
across the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. These storms are
developing most robustly within areas not worked over by aftn
thunderstorms, especially across VA and eastern WV where SBCAPE
above 3000 J/kg is sampled by the SPC RAP analysis. This
instability is working in tandem with PWs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches,
well above the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding
climatology, to support intense rain rates. Into these
thermodynamics, ascent is being produced by broad height falls
downstream of a longwave trough axis to the west, modestly
diffluent 300mb flow, and most impressively by upslope/isentropic
ascent of the low-level winds emerging out of the SW. This SW flow
is impinging into a stalled back door type cold front, creating an
impressive theta-e and instability gradient into which storms are
expected to strengthen.

During the next few hours, convection over PA/WV should wane in
response to nocturnal overturning within a lack of significant
bulk shear. However, areas to the south from the Laurel Highlands
through the WV Panhandle and into central VA are likely to become
the focus for additional development. This is supported by the
simulated reflectivity of the CAMs, including recent HRRR and RRFS
runs. These solutions are favored as the evolution matches the
conceptual model for the next several hours, with storms
developing along the front and any outflows/mergers, and then
tracking slowly along the aforementioned gradients. With rain
rates expected to peak above 2"/hr (15-25% chance) and 15-min
rainfall peaking above 0.75" according to the HRRR, slow and
chaotic storm motions of just around 5 kts could result in 1-3" of
rainfall with locally higher totals.

This region has experienced well above normal rainfall the past 10
days, as evidenced by AHPS rainfall departures that are in some
places 150-300% of normal. This has produced widespread 0-40cm
soil moisture above the 95th percentile, further compromising FFG
below the natural sensitivity of the region due to terrain. This
further reflects the concern through early tonight as slow moving
torrential rain rates result in rapid runoff and potential
instances of flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7o1o6Sm_X2AtsGzhseKab0cgQ5SlAV01Qg54KovfYKg9zmCIiRgVDzT9IatSxH--d9Bh= rj6Kj4Kg_GiOwka4BZIkcoc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41497931 41257868 40247835 39277838 38087830=20
37487817 36857828 36537863 36617936 37008018=20
37668078 38748089 39978071 41068002=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280017
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-280430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Georgia, Northern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280016Z - 280430Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
drift across Georgia and Alabama through the next several hours.
Rainfall rates may pulse up to 2-3"/hr at times during collisions,
potentially leading to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...An impressive cluster of thunderstorms has developed
over northern GA this evening, while a secondary cluster of
slightly less intensity is drifting northward over central AL.
These thunderstorms are blossoming despite a weakly forced
environment in response to robust thermodynamics characterized by
PWs of above 1.75 inches overlapping MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg. Despite
modest ascent and negligible shear, leading to pulse type
convection, the robust environment is supporting rapid updraft
growth on outflow boundaries and during storm mergers, resulting
in the clusters currently analyzed on the regional radar mosaic. Radar-estimated rainfall rates have been extreme in northern GA,
more than 2.5"/hr, leading to rainfall of more than 2 inches in
the past hour at some of the local mesonet stations, and multiple
FFW issuances from WFO FFC.

The CAMs are struggling to handle the coverage of convection this
evening, leading to lower than typical confidence for the next few
hours. Although it is likely that convective overturning and a
loss of daytime heating/destabilization should result in a gradual
downturn of thunderstorm activity (coverage and intensity), the
environment for NW GA and northern AL appears favorable for a few
more hours of thunderstorms with intense rainfall rates, despite
minimal agreement in the CAMs about coverage or placement of
convection. Multiple outflow boundaries noted on the national
radar composite are all functioning as initiation points for
additional cells, and these may merge over northern AL. Where this
is progged to occur, MLCAPE is well over 2000 J/kg, and mean 0-6km
winds are just 5 kts with chaotic and collapsed Corfidi vectors.
This suggests that as storms develop along these boundaries, or
due to storm mergers, they will continue to support impressive
rainfall rates for which the HREF suggests have a 10-20% chance of
exceeding 2"/hr, leading to 15-min rainfall that may reach 0.75"
according to the HRRR (3"/hr rates). The slow and chaotic motion
of these will cause some places to get repeating rounds or a
longer duration of rain, causing as much as 3" of rain in a few
areas.

0-40cm soil moisture across much of AL and NW GA is saturated
above the 95th percentile, leading to FFG that is as low as
1.5-2"/3hrs, especially over northern AL. The intensity of the
anticipated rainfall, combined with the slow motion of developing
storms, could exceed these thresholds through around 04Z leading
to instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-B7HvunQMIyxYTw1yPmMFjBTsLI2FbLkQcZphIBR-RFhmN_RdIglxW0hZnGnsxHD4KIY= pImIXxKoEYZiK73I7YSIEiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34908671 34808519 34558399 34098355 33358340=20
32758353 32538403 32528487 32878597 33288754=20
33528795 34208832 34898810=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280134
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0536
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Eastern and Central North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280132Z - 280700Z

Summary...Supercells blossoming over North Dakota will steadily
intensify and grow upscale tonight. This convection will contain
rainfall rates that could exceed 2"/hr at times, leading to
stripes of 1-3" of rainfall. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic combined with the GLM flash
extent density product this evening shows a rapid uptick of both
coverage and intensity of thunderstorms across central North
Dakota. This activity is strengthening in response to increasing
ascent downstream of a shortwave moving out of western North
Dakota with additional ascent provided via the LFQ of a modest
upper jet streak and the slow increase in convergence along the
nose of the 850mb LLJ. This LLJ is still modest, measured via VWPs
across South Dakota at 20-25 kts from the south, but should
steadily climb the next several hours to 30-40 kts. This will not
only increase ascent, but also draw more impressive thermodynamics
northward as PWs surge to 1.75 inches and coincident with MUCAPE
surging to 3000 J/kg.

This evolution downstream of the developing thunderstorms should
promote an environment to support rapid growth and organization
across central and eastern North Dakota. As the LLJ ramps up to
improve the thermodynamics, it will additionally increase shear to
40-50 kts to support both supercells and potentially an MCS.
Although mean 0-6km winds are likely to remain progressive to the
east at 25-35 kts, aligned Corfidi vectors suggest training is
likely, especially along the typical SW flanks and outflows as
convection shifts east and the LLJ veers subtly more to the SW.
These intense thermodynamics will support rainfall rates for which
the HREF indicates has a 10-20% chance of exceeding 2"/hr, from
which the HRRR suggests 15-min rainfall could reach as high as 1"
(brief 4"/hr rates) despite the progressive nature of convection.

While the general fast motion of cells, at least in the next few
hours, should offset some of the flash flood potential, these
intense rainfall rates could still cause rapid runoff. This will
be most likely along any short-term training boundaries where
event total rainfall in the next several hours could be 1-3
inches, and 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities peak above 25%.
Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution reflected by
variability in the CAMs, the environment will become increasingly
supportive of these intense rates and short-term training, which
atop the modest FFG could result in flash flooding instances
overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6imsz0UVU6e2GLkHqa_f8DPW8yE6g9adHf6pBTrrtoSASPWdTQsOThtIR5T6DEShzse3= xCmd6IW_KBPPyIq5bg-WwpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48589836 48129668 47459642 46639687 45959777=20
45859935 46530097 47210168 47530175 47970146=20
48060133 48510027=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280233
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-280600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1032 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...far western Virginia, southern West Virginia, far
eastern Kentucky, far northeastern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280232Z - 280600Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should continue for another 2-4
hours.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to develop in earnest
across southwestern Virginia and vicinity. This area has
experienced a relative minimum in convective activity up until the
past hour, enabling persistence of surface-based instability
despite the time of day. SPC mesoanalyses indicate broad, weak
confluence within the low-level flow field across this region,
which was combining with weak terrain influences and a
moist/unstable environment (1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5-1.75 inch PW
values) to promote strong updrafts. Peak rain rates are exceeding
1.5 inches/hr in a few spots beneath the most persistent
convection, which isn't surprising given the slow movement of
cells and their outflow-dominant nature. These rates are
exceeding local FFG and likely prompting localized impacts in a
few areas.

Despite the relative uptick in convective trends over the past 1-2
hours, models/obs suggest that a weakening trend will eventually
commence due to widespread convective overturning. This process
may take another 2-4 hours to weaken convection, however, with
deep convection continuing through at least 06Z or so. Isolated,
locally significant flash flooding can be expected during this
timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-OdgvMMP5GVBIXIwUtskSJjAUlYfjk2fo39oa7GUk6otzygd3tFR0kgRuHCAP_DJJ9oQ= dJpu-RVGq8sHSzb8-HnOrUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38128208 37498071 36788066 36038304 36708397=20
37338366=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281418
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0539
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1018 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southwest MO...Northwest AR...
Exteme Southeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281415Z - 281915Z

SUMMARY...Small slowly decaying MCC giving way to new slow
moving/efficient thunderstorms along unstable edges.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR and regional RADAR mosaic depict a
smaller than average MCC with well defined MCV crossing out of SE
KS with the outer banding feature continuing to maintain on
stronger than forecast southwesterly warm air advection. AMV/RAP
analysis suggests a 300mb 50+kt jet speed max crossing out of
central KS northeastward, exposing favorable right entrance ascent
and favorable outflow to maintain and due to internal convection,
slightly enhance the MCV. This has also aided a solid south to
southwest 30kt inflow which has been orthogonal to the trailing
banding feature resulting in continued development. Initial
clusters near Tulsa have kicked some outflow southwestward and
visible imagery shows bubbling Tcu along the upwind instability
axis where MUCAPE values remain about 1500-2000 J/kg but are only
uncapped in the vicinity of the isentropic ascent.

Downstream, weak low level stratus appears to be burning off and
increased insolation is helping to bolster surface to boundary
layer heating across the high low level moisture environment
between the small MCC and the thunderstorm activity spurred by
downstream confluence in the MS/OH River Valleys. CIRA LPW layers
show area of concern remains the core of nearly all layers of
moisture with overall totals exceeding 2" and with deep layer warm
cloud processes (13-14Kft), will support efficient rainfall
production (especially where WAA/isentropic ascent is greatest)
with 2-2.5"/hr possible.

Slow deep layer flow given the MCC ciruclation is slowly to the
east and crossing into recently saturated (higher relative soil
moisture ratios into the mid to upper 60%) across the Ozark
Plateau. Combined with naturally lower FFG values due to the
complex terrain and low water crossings, the potential for
exceedance of FFG is higher and with spots of 3-4" totals suggest
it possible for scattered incidents of flash flooding to occur.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6J2WxJ8tt-cY86Q1CuBywA1vklAnm8Bl-a7WMpf3MpQmPJfGs17VgI0e6BqVyOJs4ZLl= jEQqojbos3MiLepxMIWg_EA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37999355 37789289 37439209 36719204 35639212=20
35109266 35119365 35299443 35429552 35789639=20
36679662 37109592 37329565 37529532 37759484=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281317
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-281900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0538
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Northeast AR...Western
TN...Western KY...Southern IL...Southern IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281315Z - 281900Z

SUMMARY...Highly efficient pulse convection with sub-hourly 2"
totals and eventual broader downdrafts/cell mergers that pose an
isolated total to 3" and localized possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E conventional imagery loops
depict developing convective clusters across the central MS Valley
into the Lower Ohio River Valley. WV loop and RAP analysis shows
sharp upper-level ridge and rapid directional/divergent flow aloft
to support weak but multi-directional outflow to support stronger ascent/updraft strength. At the lower levels, solid 15-20kt
solidly confluent 850mb flow through the Lower Ohio Valley
supports convergence of very deep moisture/narrow skinny profiles
with modest but sufficient instability (1000 J/kg of CAPE). Total
PWats over 2" and vertical flux convergence will allow for highly
efficient warm cloud processes (12-13Kft depth); but with weak
shearing/tilting of updrafts, downdrafts should collapse downward
likely resulting in focused totals up to 2" in less than 30-60
minutes. Further rounds of thunderstorms will be generated along
outflow boundaries; so with each cycle the potential for broader
updrafts increases with some potential for mergers or expansion
over areas that were hit with prior rounds suggesting an isolated
spot of 3" is possible.=20

Hydrologically, the area has been above normal in rainfall and
soil saturation in most locations in the MPD area. FFG values of
2"/hr seem reasonable and may be exceeded, suggesting widely
scattered incidents of localized flash flooding is possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6NP_yTzkQFRP7SOxPoEtN7yngkvuoAOMDAq4NXda1spifKU3-YLlBIYrabPyHH0bBPle= MlIfhUM9j24z_BPC5CpRBuc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39358687 39208590 38388561 37658621 36748804=20
35128929 35289193 37299188 38048995 38768825=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281741
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-282300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0540
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Northern & Central Kentucky...Middle Tennessee...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281745Z - 282300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, highly efficient thunderstorms capable of
quick sub-hourly totals up to 2". Given recent rainfall,
saturated soils and urban locales; wide scattered localized
incidents of flash flooding are possible this afternoon.=20

DISCUSSION...Initial rounds of thunderstorms over the Middle MS
and lower OH/TN valleys have started to generate solid outflow
boundaries that are generally shifting eastward into central KY to
NW Middle TN. Nearly full insolation is supporting temperatures
into the upper 80s nearing 90, while deep layer moisture remains
well above normal (mid 70s Tds) and total PWats in the 1.75 to
1.9" range. As outflow boundary convergence is expected, this
should result in broader, perhaps slab ascent updrafts. Deep warm
cloud (12-14Kft) and vertical moisture flux convergence will
support wet microbursts capable of 2" totals in 30 to 60 minutes
with reinforcement of outflow boundaries to seek out remaining
instability pockets through the evening and afternoon. Cells may
have some increased duration of updraft given modest divergence
aloft in the entrance region of the north to south jet streak on
the northwest edge of the larger TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric
Trough) centered near Upstate SC/Western NC.

Recent heavy rainfall/above average rain totals have resulted in
well above average soil saturation ratios of 60 to near 70% across
most of the area of concern. Generally 1hr FFG values of
1.5-2.25" across the area are possible to be exceeded but in a
very widely scattered 'buck-shot' pattern and result in possible
localized flash flooding, with highest probability if cells align
with impermeable urban ground conditions with very high runoff
quickly.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8haWmxboKtfK-f7nRpP70KZ14xT7lVxnZ8HtE50TFRCmkG0nSSGXVCUfPc3n30lKpVG0= V4JYbgLB2eOUOuIneku9sKM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38918487 38558400 37638396 36248520 35528645=20
35168717 35228811 35848853 36838801 37698681=20
38238606=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281821
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-290030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0541
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281830Z - 290030Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will rapidly
increase in coverage across the Central Appalachians this
afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr are likely within this
convection, leading to pockets of 2-3" of rain with isolated
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon shows rapid
growth of TCu from northern GA through central VA, primarily along
the higher terrain of the Appalachians. These storms are pulsing
up in an extremely favorable thermodynamic environment reflected
by SPC RAP analyzed SBCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg overlapping PWs above
1.7 inches. Morning forecast soundings across the area indicate
long-skinny CAPE profiles and generally moist-adiabatic lapse
rates through much of the column, which when combined with warm
cloud depths approaching 13,000 feet suggests the environment will
support efficient warm-rain processes. Although synoptic ascent is
weak outside of modest upslope flow, which is reflected by weak
winds from the sfc through 300mb, there will likely be scattered
to numerous thunderstorms which form across the area through this
evening.

Convection will generally form along terrain features today. As
these storms pulse and decay, remnant outflow boundaries will
serve as additional foci for updrafts, leading to more numerous
cells later this aftn/eve. Storm motions will be quite weak and
chaotic as reflected by 0-6km mean winds of just 5 kts and
variable but weak Corfidi vectors, suggesting cells will move
little during their lifespan, and may at time stall when they
become terrain-tied. With rain rates progged by the HREF to have a
20-25% chance of exceeding 2"/hr, and HRRR 15-min rainfall
forecast to be as much as 1" (brief 4"/hr rates - supported by the
efficient warm rain processes), these slow storms, especially
during collisions/mergers or when storms become terrain tied,
could lead to pockets of 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

The Central Appalachians have generally been dry the past 7-10
days as noted in the AHPS rainfall departures, but scattered
storms in the past week have created some pockets of more than
200% of normal rainfall. This has led to areas of 3-hr FFG that is
as low as 1-1.5"/3hrs, although FFG across much of the region is
modest due to the general vulnerability of this terrain. The HREF
3-hr exceedance probabilities are very scattered and peak at just
10-20%, but the slow movement of these efficient rain rates atop
generally sensitive terrain could result in at least isolated
instances of flash flooding today.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5I1_Zdh-v0uJ9uoyAiR1D_tmHe7sg0TUtvuLAMqBBnuTixMBo9ppn3IBlX0VD9trs3g= sRA8u4fsye79COmzrpKLfIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...FFC...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38707847 38457811 37717845 36927961 36168046=20
36138055 35468118 35028165 34608230 34558401=20
35018444 35808384 36858294 37748159 38368034=20
38677927=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281900
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0542
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281859Z - 282300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage and move slowly eastward across the Ozarks and into the
Tennessee Valley. This convection will contain rain rates that at
times may reach 3"/hr, leading to 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...An area of showers and thunderstorms noted on the
regional radar mosaic across MO/AR this afternoon is drifting
slowly eastward while expanding. Rainfall rates within this
convection has been estimated via local radars to be as much as
2.5"/hr (from KSGF), leading to mesonet observed rainfall of 1-2+"
so far today. This area of convection is expanding in response to
a modest 850mb LLJ of 15-20 kts which is efficiently transporting
PWs above 2 inches and MLCAPE as high as 3000 J/kg northward into
the region. Additionally, despite modest synoptic lift due to weak
flow around a ridge to the south, a weak shortwave approaching
from the Central Plains and the convergence of this weak LLJ along
its nose are helping to provide just enough ascent in the robust
thermodynamics to fuel the widespread activity this aftn.

The high-res CAMs are generally under-forecasting the current
activity, although the 12Z NAMnest and ARWs appear to have the
best handle on the breadth of the current activity. Despite that,
the CAMs are likely eroding activity too quickly during the next
few hours as the forcing/thermodynamics overlap will support a
continuation of this activity well into the Tennessee Valley by
this evening. As the favorable PWs and CAPE are continually drawn northeastward, this will support rainfall rates which have a high
chance (>70%) of exceeding 1"/hr (from the HREF) with storms
slowly moving eastward on 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10 kts.
Additionally, weak bulk shear will result in storms manifesting
primarily as pulse type, but some weak organization is possible
along outflows or in the vicinity of the LLJ nose, leading to some
short-term training or backbuilding to prolong these rain rates.
Where this occurs, rainfall could be 2-3" or locally higher.

FFG across the area is generally 2-3"/3hrs, for which the HREF
indicates has a 20-30% chance of being exceeded. However, with the
poor overall initiation of the HREF CAMs suite, the true
probability is likely higher than this. Additionally, MRMS 24-hr
rainfall has been 1 to as much as 3 inches, leading to pockets of
fully saturated top-soils which will be more susceptible to
runoff. While flash flooding is possible anywhere across the area
this aftn, it will be most likely where any short term training
can move across the more primed soils.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5SyBqEJ3mJ1qmMc5Eh7iEd-U0tFzehTvflgh6ZNNMxQbrvkAStGRN4H4YzKvJOipnNnR= Hq9HQjjzTG1qd1YOGblB2OY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38629272 38369174 37999067 37688938 37438845=20
37068793 36248825 35628906 35108969 34819096=20
35079227 35519309 36269353 36759361 37749371=20
38509336=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281941
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-290130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0543
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281940Z - 290130Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms blossoming ahead of a cold
front will expand and train through the afternoon and into the
evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected, which through
training could produce 2-3" of rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows a
rapid uptick of convective coverage aligned SW to NE from eastern
Indiana through southwest Pennsylvania. These storms are
continuing to expand and intensify as reflected by the GOES-E
day-cloud phase RGB, suggesting more numerous storms will develop
during the next few hours. This convection is blossoming in
response to convergence along an approaching cold front, which is
impinging into robust thermodynamics characterized by PWs around
1.7 inches (above the 90th percentile at KILN according to the SPC
sounding climatology) and SBCAPE over 3000 J/kg.

Through the afternoon and into this evening, the cold front is
likely to sag slowly south and east as modest 500mb height falls
occur downstream of a shortwave moving into the Upper Midwest.
This evolution combined with modest upper diffluence will help
drive synoptic ascent atop the pronounced low-level convergence
ahead of the front. This lift will move into an increasingly
favorable environment as the 850mb inflow, while modest in speed
(10-15 kts and veering) maintains a resupply of favorable
thermodynamics as it originates from a pool of high PWs over 2
inches. The HRRR is under-forecasting the current activity, but
the ARWs, NAMnest, and even the RRFS have a better handle on the
ongoing coverage and are favored through the evening. This
suggests that storms will continue to expand and build into the
greater instability to the SW, and then train steadily to the east
as weak Corfidi vectors and 0-6km mean winds become aligned to
each other and the sagging front.

Rain rates will likely reach 1-2"/hr (50-60% chance from the REFS)
leading to short duration rainfall as much as 0.5-1.5 inches in 30
minutes, and this could quickly overwhelm soils leading to runoff.
However, the greater concern is where training occurs, which
should be prevalent along the front, as this could produce 2-3" of
rain in some areas over a short period of time. If this training
falls atop any urban areas, or across more sensitive soils due to
terrain or FFG that is as low as 1.5"/3hrs from recent rainfall,
instances of flash flooding would become more likely.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8nAQkQBFEPmn75sWybBmmLW7t2Es7pTBJnbpEXcrKt-EyjQ0gMBJVGVcKf4Cat3xwhEw= SClogB_jvOC_B__pauC6O_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41017956 40737902 40127875 39187921 38577999=20
38298060 38228211 38548386 38868527 39188601=20
39458625 39778621 40138576 40198405 40418201=20
40738094 40918023=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282200
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-290300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282159Z - 290300Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms with 0.5"/hr rates or locally
greater will continue across New Mexico and West Texas. This could
produce as much as 0.75-1.25 inches of rain, leading to instances
of flash flooding, especially across burn scars.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
across southern New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon. This
convection is expanding in response to favorable thermodynamics
characterized by PWs of 1-1.4 inches, highest in West Texas,
collocated with SBCAPE rising to 1000-2500 J/kg, highest in the
High Plains of NM. In this environment, forcing is modest, but a
shortwave is helping to enhance ascent that is otherwise primarily
driven by upslope into terrain features and subsequent outflow
boundaries in the pulse-convection environment. With PWs around
the 90th percentile for the date, rainfall rates have been
estimated via the local radars of around 0.5"/hr, and where these
have occurred across recent burn scars, flash flood warnings are
in effect.

With a sharp gradient in moisture and instability in place across
the area, convective coverage should remain generally isolated to
scattered as reflected by available CAM simulated reflectivity.
However, the presence of the shortwave could enhance ascent enough
that storms become a bit more widespread than yesterday. In the
pulse environment, this will result in outflows and storm mergers
leading to additional development, with storm motions likely
remaining chaotic and less than 10 kts using the Corfidi vectors
as proxy. This will allow for heavy rain rates, which should
exceed 0.5"/hr (>70% chance from the HREF) and may reach 1"/hr (UA
WRF), especially during any mergers/collisions, to drift across
the area through the aftn. Although general lifespans of these
cells will be short, except during mergers, total rainfall could
reach 1" or more in a few locations.

This area is generally vulnerable to flash flooding. 1-hr FFG is
only around 1", with even lower amounts likely needed to cause
rapid runoff across sensitive terrain features and burn scars.
Additionally, 7-day rainfall has been excessive at more than 600%
of normal, further enhancing the vulnerability of the region as
0-40cm soils are saturated above the 98th percentile in many
areas. While the burn scars will have the most sensitivity and
potential for flash flooding, any slow moving cell with the most
intense rates could result in impacts through this evening.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4bkkhuMrVC7ZQQxNkLrq549efb7TuG7hfd8HwO28fsv4CmLpP8raU6A7bSZFpHzRgDZ-= HznrOl1N2OpS6Tex4-dSaqY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34730550 34690480 34370380 33280316 31870309=20
30970314 30880322 30350336 30270388 30470469=20
31030547 31720612 32010718 32150819 32380867=20
32740875 33110875 33400893 33630876 33630827=20
33850784 34060772 34390705 34610624=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290033
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0545
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota, Northeast South Dakota,
Central Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290031Z - 290600Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will grow rapidly this evening
and may congeal into an MCS during the next few hours. Rainfall
rates of 2+"/hr are likely, which could produce 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts through training. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows two
distinct areas of convection rapidly growing across the Dakotas.
These storms are intensifying in response to an approaching cold
front from the west, which is being pushed eastward by an
accompanying shortwave embedded within weak troughing of otherwise
zonal flow. Forcing for ascent is beginning to intensify
downstream of this shortwave/front, aided by both the LFQ of a
modest jet streak pivoting into SD, and through low-level
convergence along the nose of an amplifying 850mb LLJ which has
been measured recently at KFSD VWP at 30 kts. This LLJ is
additionally transporting robust thermodynamics northward as
reflected by the SPC RAP analysis, which suggests that MUCAPE has
climbed above 4000 J/kg coincident with PWs of over 1.5 inches.
Together, this lift and favorable environment will combine to
cause an increase in convection through the evening.

There remains considerable spread in the CAMs for the evolution
this evening, causing somewhat lower than typical confidence in
the flash flood potential. However, as the LLJ ramps up towards 40
kts it will further replenish thermodynamics northward, while also
enhancing ascent as it increases above the mean flow causing
additional convergence into the warm sector ahead of the cold
front. This combined with the cold front moving steadily eastward,
and bulk shear rising to 30-35 kts, suggests hedging towards the
CAMs with the most widespread and aggressive simulated
reflectivity during the next few hours. This will support rainfall
rates of 2+"/hr that are suggested by 20-25% probabilities from
the HREF (which are likely too low due to model performance this
evening), with brief rainfall rates of 3-4"/hr likely as shown by
15-min HRRR rainfall of 0.75" to 1". Although individual cells,
and the potential MCS produced via upscale growth, should be
progressive, training will become increasingly likely as the MCS
trails an outflow boundary to its south upon which additional
storms will develop and then move east which is supported by
veering Corfidi vectors. Where this training occurs, rainfall
could be 2-4" with locally higher amounts.

These intense rain rates will be sufficient to produce rapid
runoff and isolated flash flooding. However, the antecedent
conditions are also supportive due to 10-day rainfall that is more
than 300% of normal causing 0-40cm soil moisture above the 98th
percentile. This suggests minimal infiltration capacity of the
soils, so that while the greatest risk for flash flooding will be
through training, any of these intense rain rates, even if
progressive, could quickly overwhelm the soils to produce impacts
tonight.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77aROJtk4PMF-eJ1Qsn6pNw9HR4KhZTmS0T7D6fVxaS7SxTPyVx2kz7rPGoVsGNQOb5n= 2mud6qjw8F3xhblxZWkA7H0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47379700 46979527 46629391 46259265 45879232=20
45359251 44839287 44609354 44529363 44479505=20
44709658 45299754 46059837 46499849 46999806=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290340
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota, southern/central Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290339Z - 290800Z

Summary...Intense thunderstorms have taken on a favorable
orientation for training, with spots of 2-3 inch/hr rates
persisting for a couple hours just southeast of Watertown, SD.=20
Heavy to extreme rain rates could pose locally significant flash
flood potential through at least 07Z.

Discussion...Recent mesoscale trends indicate a linear MCS
extending from just southwest of Watertown, SD to near Willmar,
MN. The linear MCS was backbuilding along the northern extent of
a 25-30 kt southwesterly 850mb jet centered near Sioux Falls, SD.=20 Substantial backbuilding and training was occurring with this
activity, and MRMS estimates of 5-7 inches of rainfall exist just
southeast of Watertown with this activity. Steep lapse rates and
abundant moisture will continue to fuel backbuilding activity in
the short term, and heavy to extreme rain rates will likely
accompany this activity.

While the evolution of this band through the night is a bit
uncertain, observations suggest that training convection will
continue for at least the next 3-4 hours at least with
synoptic-scale atmospheric features not expected to evolve much in
that timeframe. The ongoing band will likely continue to
backbuild while either remaining stationary or moving slowly
southeastward in response to local cold pool development and other
mesoscale processes. The band may also build eastward in to more
of southern Minnesota. The degree of training in any one spot
will be a primary factor modulating rainfall totals through 07Z.=20
Additional 3-7 inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out. Locally
significant flash flooding may occur with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6grJJVDF1DuzAFEm1feLPyY8scMlD8SFbN4V5WFkQPCpdf-UKEXQNCH7uZ7cQBsIhEZG= RS1jbxJFfx4k3HhmVziLCS8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45269446 45109341 44569281 43969300 43639568=20
43859793 44659807 45099677=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290402
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota, southern/central Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290339Z - 290800Z

Summary...Intense thunderstorms have taken on a favorable
orientation for training, with spots of 2-3 inch/hr rates
persisting for a couple hours just southeast of Watertown, SD.=20
Heavy to extreme rain rates could pose locally significant flash
flood potential through at least 07Z.

Discussion...Recent mesoscale trends indicate a linear MCS
extending from just southwest of Watertown, SD to near Willmar,
MN. The linear MCS was backbuilding along the northern extent of
a 25-30 kt southwesterly 850mb jet centered near Sioux Falls, SD.=20 Substantial training was also occurring with this activity, and
MRMS estimates of 5-7 inches of rainfall exist just southeast of
Watertown recently. Steep lapse rates and abundant moisture will
continue to fuel backbuilding in the short term, and heavy to
extreme rain rates will likely accompany the storms.

While the evolution of this band through the night is a bit
uncertain, observations suggest that training convection will
continue for at least the next 3-4 hours at least with
synoptic-scale atmospheric features not expected to evolve much in
that timeframe. The ongoing band will likely continue to
backbuild while either remaining stationary or moving slowly
southeastward in response to local cold pool development and other
mesoscale processes. The band may also build eastward in to more
of southern Minnesota. The degree of training in any one spot
will be a primary factor modulating rainfall totals through 07Z.=20
Additional 3-7 inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out. Locally
significant flash flooding may occur with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4F2xc3ZVn4vMqrnT-GIo-xijucQyyMY8mnZYa4f2HAi98pKDVELsikniesse_DIUjHrv= DCZ0xIbT1icLe3NJJRU0Vko$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45269446 45109341 44569281 43969300 43639568=20
43859793 44659807 45099677=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290802
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-291400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern Kansas into central and south-central
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290800Z - 291400Z

Summary...A few areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are
expected to expand in coverage across the discussion area. Areas
of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected through at least 14Z/9a CDT
this morning, which could prompt flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered convection was developing along an axis
from east-central Kansas (near Emporia eastward to near Sedalia
and southeastward to the MO/AR border near Cherokee Village. The
storms were being forced by ascent on the nose of stronger 850mb
flow located across Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks, with speed
convergence providing lift amid a marginally unstable (1000 J/kg
MUCAPE) but plenty moist (1.5+ inch PW) environment. The storms
are developing amid weak steering flow aloft, resulting in slow
movement and redevelopment within the axis of best low-level
convergence. The slow movement was already enabling spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates to materialize in central Missouri, which may
result in isolated excessive runoff in the near term despite
values falling short of hourly FFG.

Models/observations suggest that persistent low-level convergence
across the discussion area will continue to promote redevelopment
and expansion of convection through the early morning hours. An
attendant increase in rainfall rates (into the 1.5 inch/hr range
in spots) is also expected. These rain rates will threaten FFG
thresholds and promote a risk of flash flooding especially in
urban and sensitive locales through 14Z/9a CDT this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6mFz9p25grdnoArPkxPNBzHQp-EV60no98FhHspYNDqAYVbYu_UAHSSz-_AMH6C0HRcC= lQupv2YJzShWD6xnupRlIH0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 39749527 39699367 38599109 37209056 36509081=20
36309167 36869256 38309426 38429556 39089600=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290943
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0548
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, far northwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290941Z - 291400Z

Summary...A convective complex across northeastern
Nebraska/northwestern Iowa will foster isolated flash flood
potential as it migrates southeastward across the discussion area
through 14Z/9a CDT.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery indicates a mature
convective complex extending from near Sheldon, IA southwestward
to near Norfolk, NE this morning. Additional, isolated convection
was beginning to develop across southeastern Nebraska. The storms
are being supported by strong mid-level lapse rates (~8C/km) and a
moist axis (1.4+ inch PW values) extending from northeastern
Nebraska south-southeastward toward Kansas City Metro. Additional
storms across far southeastern Nebraska were being supported by
strong low-level convergence on the nose of 40-kt low-level flow
focused over central Kansas. Most areas within this complex were
experiencing modest rain rates except for far northwestern Iowa,
where the orientation of cells were promoting 1.5 inch/hr rain
rates that were approaching FFG thresholds.

While the ongoing flash flood threat should remain fairly isolated
in the short term, some concern exists that this potential could
increase through 14Z/9a this morning. The ongoing, mature MCS
should continue to migrate south-southeastward through abundant
mid-level instability, resulting in continued potential for 1-1.5
inch/hr rates at times. Additionally, low-level convergence (and
resultant development) across southeastern Nebraska suggest that
the mature convective complex will eventually begin to foster
cellular mergers that locally prolong rain rates and boost
rainfall totals in a few locales. FFG thresholds are in the 1.5-2
inch/hr range areawide, and as mergers become more common, these
thresholds should be breached on occasion.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6LylPw7-B2Mx1MTr6R90gwy5QWMUdHWA1F7Hq4ZsoJaZ44BVH-euHsQ7KTlgpjN4vmIX= 1Tk-Y63H2FWs8CUdCSZr3hU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43219519 42799437 41679387 40549364 39909428=20
40129604 40529694 42199718 43089634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291343
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-291930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0549
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Missouri...Far Southeast
Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291345Z - 291930Z

SUMMARY...Weakening convective complexes still have potential for
additional 1-3" locally crossing areas already flooded this
morning. Localized flash flooding still remains possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows scattered re-activation of
scattered thunderstorms/cooling tops extending from dying
MCS/Squall line across SE NEB/IA moving into NE KS/NW MO all the
way south across central MO to southeast MO where remaining
isentropic ascent continues with scattered clusters. Upwind
areas across E KS and SW MO remain conditionally unstable with
ample deep layer moisture up to 1.75-2" of total PWats and capped
CAPEs up to 2500 J/kg which will further increase with clearing
skies. The old MCV with the leading convective complex/WAA
regime continues to decouple and slide eastward through the deep
layer flow across E MO, but the resulting LLJ still is fairly
strong for the diurnal minimum with TWX/EAX/SGF VWP suite
continuing to show solid 30-40kt decelerating confluent flow
toward the old outflow/isentropic gradient across west-central to
southeast MO still able to overcome the weaker capping to support
the remaining convective clusters particularly on the confluent
upwind edge from Bates to Miller county. Given the moisture flux
and buoyancy, scattered cells/clusters will move with favorable
orientation for short-term training as well as intersecting areas
affected last night/this morning across south-central MO; given
broad scattered Tcu across the Ozark Plateau, additional
development may occur hear as well, expanding the risk for flash
flooding rainfall totals (1-3") south and west of the already
flooded areas in SE MO.

Upstream, the strong outflow/squall line is intersecting the
northern apex of the instability axis across NE KS and strong
convergence along the leading edge is sprouting stronger/broader
updrafts with cores that are back-shearing over the colder
under-cutting air, suggesting increased overall duration of
intense rainfall can be expected over the next hour or so. In
addition, the squall line is merging with older more scattered WAA
cells lingering from the prior wave in combination over the Kansas
City Metro area. Propagation will be more due south than
southeast given the available instability westward to the old
track of rain; but a balance may be stuck for intersection of this
newer 1.5-3" totals over areas having 1-3" this morning.=20

While overall coverage is likely to be more scattered in nature,
the combination of rates over recently saturated grounds will
continue the risk for a few more incidents of flash flooding
through the next 3-5 hours as the LLJ further diminishes and
capping further increases.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-mSwJJvnCo4nwUUGWVBMW7wbvzJSSu3EPvKTUpucSnhuvd1yVMTBIeM1Cz2iLFJIQTMa= vx2RZTzYXgucbjGzqeU5gmc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 40559416 40209305 39449183 38279032 37498949=20
36958946 36739007 36799152 37249318 38109480=20
39259652 40109708 40509556=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291702
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0550
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
102 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Middle TN...Northern AL...Northwest
GA...West-central MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291700Z - 292200Z

SUMMARY...Stronger than normal pulse thunderstorms within deep
moisture, slow flow environment may support scattered to numerous
cells with capability of 2" totals in 30-60 minutes. Incidents of
localized flash flooding is considered possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite once again shows closed TUTT cell
over E GA just west of Augusta with northwest quadrant of enhanced
moisture within/along NNE to SSW jet streak across Middle TN
becoming more diffluent along and south of the TN River Valley.=20
Clear skies and stagnant humid low level moisture have supported
rapid increase in broad area of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across
much of northern and central AL, with extensions into west-central
MS and western GA. Deep layer moisture is over 2". Differential
heating along old cirrus canopy from the western portion of Middle
TN into central MS has result in weak thermal circulation to
support weak, yet sufficient convergence in this highly unstable
environment for broader ascent with scattered to numerous coverage
noted.=20

Deep layer steering is very weak at 5-10kts and also a tad
diffluent toward the south and southeast. So with stronger
vertical moisture flux/loading to the updrafts, warm cloud depths
over 13-14Kft will support up to 2" totals within 30-60 minutes.=20
Limited dry air aloft will support moist outflow boundaries and
convergence will support newer activity with each cycle
potentially increasing the areal expanse of the updrafts resulting
in a broader area of intense rainfall. Given the shear
rate/magnitude...rapid inundation and runoff would be normally
expected but lower FFG due to an above normal season may further
limit infiltration and increase runoff. As such, highly
focused/localized flash flooding may be possible in/near the cores
and around urban centers such as Huntsville, Birmingham, Nashville
or Atlanta.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4RwHvCg7IKrQNJWMGYkNGF_VkCOkgqv2zSamNuAnzjGYVnmFAicdWwsX1Q9MtKmeIzOY= OXPwMYbcIcylMjd7CzHKWYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36428678 36388549 35468504 34298461 33608397=20
32808432 32558518 32618608 32498743 32398887=20
33248920 33708820 34948777 35848747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291847
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-300030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0551
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...central Iowa through northeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291846Z - 300030Z

Summary...Storms developing ahead of a cold front will train
through the afternoon. As rain rates intensify to 1-2"/hr, this
training could result in axes of more than 3 inches of rain,
potentially leading to flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
showers and thunderstorms expanding rapidly ahead of an
approaching cold front. Although the front is still positioned
well west of the axis of convection, storms are aligning SW to NE
along the convergent nose of a modest LLJ and downstream of an MCV
noted in the GOES-E visible satellite imagery to enhance ascent.
This LLJ, while veering with latitudinal gain, is transporting
robust thermodynamics northward as a ribbon of PWs above 1.5
inches stretches northward into Wisconsin immediately downstream
of the developing convection, collocated with a plume of SBCAPE
above 4000 J/kg. Although ascent is generally modest, this lift
acting into these favorable thermodynamics will continue to
support intensifying cores, with an expansion of coverage also
likely during the next few hours.

Rainfall rates have been estimated above 1.5"/hr via KARX WSR-88D
already this afternoon. These rates will likely continue to
intensify, and both the HREF and REFS indicate a 10-20% chance of
2"/hr rain rates during the next few hours. Short duration
rainfall may be even more impressive as the 15-min HRRR indicates
brief 3-4"/hr rates (0.75 to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes). As the MCV
pushes northeast and the front approaches, shear may gradually
increase to 20-25 kts, suggesting at least modest organization
into multicell clusters is possible, with the CAMs identifying
southern WI as the most likely location for this evolution.
Regardless of any organization, training/repeating cells appear
likely as Corfidi vectors collapse to around 5 kts and align to
the mean wind, indicating that cells will continue to regenerate
within the greater thermodynamics to the S/SW and then track
northeast, impacting the same areas multiple times. With rain
rates of 1-2"/hr or more expected, this could result in 1-3" of
rain with locally higher amounts as forecast by HREF 6-hr rain
probabilities.

Soils across the area, especially in WI and southeast MN, are
saturated above the 95th percentile within the 0-40cm layer
according to NASA SPoRT due to recent heavy rain. This has lowered
FFG to just 1.5-2"/3hrs which has a 20-30% chance of being
exceeded according to the HREF. This further indicates the
potential for these heavy rain rates to result in instances of
flash flooding through the evening, especially during the most
impressive training.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!92xgdl_3B6lBde2mbol7OGdC2T_JFEEcGUQlYpG2rasODkSnVgi6wIfZ7iLaRDTXCJ_9= syIf7qySfNrNN4vrOUyCYUk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45598869 45488782 44948768 44138806 43268913=20
42669017 41979238 42549299 43369292 43969231=20
44639129 45308957 45378935=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291949
FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...southeast Kansas through the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291947Z - 300100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface
trough and an accompanying outflow boundary will translate
southeast through the afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr
are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon
indicates a rapid expansion of strengthening updrafts across much
of southern Missouri. These updrafts are manifesting as
strengthening thunderstorms, with two clusters noted via the
regional radar mosaic. One of these is dropping out of southeast
Kansas along an outflow boundary, while a second area is expanding
across a surface trough in southeast Missouri. The low-level
convergence driving this convection is moving into robust
thermodynamics characterized by PWs nearing 2 inches overlapping
MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg, leading to intense rain rates estimated via
radar to be 2.5"/hr in some areas.

Over the next few hours coverage should continue to expand across
the area and track slowly to the southeast, although some more
impressive organization through bulk shear of 20-30 kts may
eventually result in a more progressive MCS as shown by the ARWs.
Until then, the slow movement of cells combined with these intense
rain rates may result in stripes of 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts.

The CAMs differ considerably in the evolution the next few hours,
so confidence is reduced as to where the greatest potential for
the heaviest rainfall will be. However, the slow southward advance
of the strong CAPE gradient combined with the slow westward build
of convection along the surface trough suggests south-central
Missouri will become the focus of the heaviest and most prolonged
rainfall this afternoon. This is potentially problematic as FFG in
this area is most compromised to as low as 0.75-1.5"/3hrs, for
which the HREF indicates has a 30-40% chance of exceedance. While
the intense rain rates moving across any urban or more sensitive
soils could cause flash flooding, the greatest risk will be across south-central Missouri where the the overlap of low FFG and
highest rainfall may occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-sN7tAT_2ieEFTVd5YlPunizHwD1klzmMswP6gIQkPTna1iNCPlQcyUHq_sHx9MoaqWw= Dt6GuT-D4jov0wUyjiHzrSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38749475 38709411 38419304 38119227 37699172=20
37349091 37058988 36708936 36298969 36039087=20
36089305 36499483 36829558 37179640 37429720=20
38139668=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291957
FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...southeast Kansas through the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291947Z - 300100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface
trough and an accompanying outflow boundary will translate
southeast through the afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr
are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon
indicates a rapid expansion of strengthening updrafts across much
of southern Missouri. These updrafts are manifesting as
strengthening thunderstorms, with two clusters noted via the
regional radar mosaic. One of these is dropping out of southeast
Kansas along an outflow boundary, while a second area is expanding
across a surface trough in southeast Missouri. The low-level
convergence driving this convection is moving into robust
thermodynamics characterized by PWs nearing 2 inches overlapping
MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg, leading to intense rain rates estimated via
radar to be 2.5"/hr in some areas.

Over the next few hours coverage should continue to expand across
the area and track slowly to the southeast, although some more
impressive organization through bulk shear of 20-30 kts may
eventually result in a more progressive MCS as shown by the ARWs.
Until then, the slow movement of cells combined with these intense
rain rates may result in stripes of 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts.

The CAMs differ considerably in the evolution the next few hours,
so confidence is reduced as to where the greatest potential for
the heaviest rainfall will be. However, the slow southward advance
of the strong CAPE gradient combined with the slow westward build
of convection along the surface trough suggests south-central
Missouri will become the focus of the heaviest and most prolonged
rainfall this afternoon. This is potentially problematic as FFG in
this area is most compromised to as low as 0.75-1.5"/3hrs, for
which the HREF indicates has a 30-40% chance of exceedance. While
the intense rain rates moving across any urban or more sensitive
soils could cause flash flooding, the greatest risk will be across south-central Missouri where the the overlap of low FFG and
highest rainfall may occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_2Sp5JUSjnAydKLCKsLwn6k8OmzbH1bnn4PT0tgcT0-lJOtnEPj2crL2pKWPDGZJKZlq= Ttd_14q3GlAmNjZLNgPcVcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38749475 38709411 38419304 38119227 37699172=20
37349091 37058988 36708936 36298969 36039087=20
36089305 36499483 36829558 37179640 37429720=20
38139668=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300142
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0553
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300141Z - 300700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand along several
outflow boundaries tonight. Rainfall rates in new convection may
briefly pulse up above 3"/hr, leading to 1-2" of rain in less than
1 hour. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows clusters
of thunderstorms dropping southward across parts of AR, OK, and KS
along residual outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Radar
estimated rainfall rates within the most intense cores have been
above 2"/hr according to KVNX, which has resulted in MRMS measured
rainfall of more than 3 inches in the past 6-hrs in a few
locations, including a reported 3.9 inches near Piedmont, KS.

These outflows will continue to drop steadily southward through
the next several hours, serving as a focus for additional
convective development. As the boundaries drop south, they will
encounter more favorable thermodynamics reflected by the SPC RAP
analysis indicating a pool of 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE aligned
with a ribbon of PWs approaching 2 inches. This will continue to
support intense rainfall rates of more than 2"/hr, and the HRRR
15-min rainfall accumulation product suggests rates will briefly
exceed 3"/hr (0.75 to 1 inch in 15 minutes). Additionally, as
these storms sag south and redevelop along the convergent outflow
boundaries, the LLJ, currently analyzed via local VWPs to be from
the SW at 20 kts, will provide additional ascent through
isentropic upglide while concurrently resupplying the impressive
thermodynamics into the clusters of storms.

While the CAMs are exceptionally different with the evolution the
next few hours, the recent HRRR appears to be catching on to the
current activity, with some support from the ARW/ARW2 as well.
Despite the lack of agreement, which is negatively impacting the
HREF exceedance probabilities, the current radar combined with the
expected continuation of the favorable thermodynamics suggests
convection will persist, and may pulse up at times through the
next few hours. Where this occurs, total rainfall could again be
1-2" in less than an hour, with local maxima above 3" possible.
This rain will occur atop soils that are saturated above the 90th
percentile according to NASA SPoRT from 7-day rainfall that has
been more than 200% of normal, highest in northeast OK. Any heavy
rain falling atop these soils, especially if any training can
occur along the boundary as it sags southward, could cause
instances of flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ry-0Q7fP_V0EQdGocVrPcaNGadbPKLFALlvxxBrHbcEJrFNC4VmT5qzSG1IPAFDpChz= bsV_QfYSy6YLpAjvKLx9AZk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37999698 37859578 37169522 36619478 36199445=20
35569430 35199456 35129520 35299608 35679697=20
36149750 36609785 37319784=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300633
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301032-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...central/southern indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300632Z - 301032Z

Summary...A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms
were repeating over southern Indiana near Bloomington, where 1.75
inch/hr rain rates and 5-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed
since 00Z. Flash flooding is likely in this area through 10Z this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern
Indiana are embedded in broad, modest west-southwesterly flow
aloft currently. Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates that
convection has begun to take on more of a training character,
focusing on a subtle confluence axis evident at the surface and at
850mb via SPC mesoanalyses and surface obs. The convection is
embedded in 2 inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.=20
Meanwhile, upstream convection has deepened across far
southeastern Illinois that should eventually repeat into areas of
southern Indiana that have already received heavy rainfall. The
current scenario suggests that additional 2-5 inch rainfall totals
area possible in some parts of the discussion area near/south of
Bloomington and vicinity.

MRMS Flash responses are in moderate levels across the area that
has received heavier rainfall over the past 3-6 hours or so.=20
Additionally, and three-hourly FFG thresholds are in the 2 inch
range and will likely be exceeded at times as convection moves
across the region. Flash flooding is likely, and depending on the
persistence of this band through/beyond 10Z, local significant
impacts are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_micK7amQXEsIaodOLfMMjMd8F9MhCDDtGLA4Dg_LrI-0dg5Kh4j-D1GiI871z1zpvcQ= yoQ3IdwKWm822Uq0L9d3-1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39898503 39348482 38778508 38378621 38048846=20
38858809 39258725=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300701
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-301300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0555
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Kansas into central Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300700Z - 301300Z

Summary...A couple of thunderstorm complexes are expected to merge
across the discussion area though 12Z this morning. Multiple cell
mergers and localized training should enable development of areas
of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates and at least isolated instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...A complicated convective pattern is evolving across
the central Plains currently. A fairly progressive MCS is
leveraging modest steering flow aloft while forward propagating
southeastward near LXN/Lexington, NE currently. The orientation
of the convection and its speed has generally limited rain rates
to around 1 inch/hr on an isolated basis, resulting in a very
limited flash flood threat in the short term.

Farther south, a mature MCS has evolved across southern
Kansas/northern Oklahoma. This complex is leveraging both steep
lapse rates aloft (around 7.5C/km) and convergence on the nose of
a 30kt southwesterly low-level jet centered over northwestern
Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. The storms within this complex
have substantially weaker mid/upper steering flow and are largely
elevated atop an expanding cold pool. Slow movement has enabled
several areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates to materialize, which has
fostered isolated flash flood potential especially near Wichita
where 2 inch/hr FFG thresholds were noted.

Over the next 6 hours, the meso-to-synoptic setup favors the
eventual merging of the southern Nebraska and southern Kansas MCSs
along with intermediate convective development across
western/central Kansas amid strong low-level convergence and 2500
J/kg MLCAPE. The increase in convective coverage and relatively
weak steering flow aloft suggest that areas of 1.5-2.5 inch/hr
rain rates will become more common with time. These rates will
exceed FFG thresholds at times - especially across southern NE and
northern Kansas where 1.5-2 inch/hr thresholds were prevalent.=20
FFGs are a bit higher with southern extent into Kansas,
potentially pointing to a somewhat lesser flash flood threat in
those areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6JQHJw6bFSfE1RGDj0ImMPJ9b_lyFd0k-sn84KNNkWdKaH90doxwtTnplhRUELr9TzOi= MJgXQ5r8roMwQjvVRbVi3lc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41619840 40389698 38819640 37949679 37499729=20
37459882 37990035 39040170 39890137 41260022=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300716
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301032-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Corrected for flash flooding "likely" tag

Areas affected...central/southern indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 300632Z - 301032Z

Summary...A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms
were repeating over southern Indiana near Bloomington, where 1.75
inch/hr rain rates and 5-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed
since 00Z. Flash flooding is likely in this area through 10Z this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern
Indiana are embedded in broad, modest west-southwesterly flow
aloft currently. Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates that
convection has begun to take on more of a training character,
focusing on a subtle confluence axis evident at the surface and at
850mb via SPC mesoanalyses and surface obs. The convection is
embedded in 2 inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.=20
Meanwhile, upstream convection has deepened across far
southeastern Illinois that should eventually repeat into areas of
southern Indiana that have already received heavy rainfall. The
current scenario suggests that additional 2-5 inch rainfall totals
area possible in some parts of the discussion area near/south of
Bloomington and vicinity.

MRMS Flash responses are in moderate levels across the area that
has received heavier rainfall over the past 3-6 hours or so.=20
Additionally, and three-hourly FFG thresholds are in the 2 inch
range and will likely be exceeded at times as convection moves
across the region. Flash flooding is likely, and depending on the
persistence of this band through/beyond 10Z, local significant
impacts are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_9rKskqQXgsdlX2UDgUjx6oUPToJiAuBtzc-eLGjGFZ7-WdhDMZL3y_4nJ63JakDmpAE= JmeRQbQJ8zEGiuz5EYfVh4E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39898503 39348482 38778508 38378621 38048846=20
38858809 39258725=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300840
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-301100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0556
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
440 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...far southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300839Z - 301100Z

Summary...A band of elevated convection extending from near Pratt,
KS to near Enid, OK has become nearly stationary over the past
couple hours. Rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hr have been
estimated in a few spots. These rates will pose an isolated flash
flood threat for the next 2-3 hours or so.

Discussion...A mature MCS over northern Oklahoma has experienced a
complicated evolution this morning, with most of the vigorous
convection now focused along a band from near Pratt, KS to near
Enid, OK. This portion of the MCS features mainly elevated
convection, although that convection has stalled atop expanding
outflow/cold pool now over northwestern Oklahoma. Furthermore,
25kt southwesterly 850mb flow was interacting favorably with the
cold pool to help maintain the convective band while also likely
helping to maintain elevated instability near the storms. The
result is an axis of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates that has largely
remained in a similar position over the past 3 hours, with
MRMS-estimated rainfall totals of 3-5 inches also noted in that
3-hour timeframe.

The ongoing heavy rainfall pattern should persist for another 2-3
hours or so. Later this morning, southwesterly 850mb flow should
slacken some and result in reduced convergence and influx of
instability into the convective band. This should result in
weakening of the band along with lessening of rain rates, although
specific timing on this anticipated weakening is uncertain. In
the meantime, 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates will likely continue. FFG
thresholds are a bit high in the region (2.5+ inch/hr), but the
multi-hour nature of the heavy rain threat suggests a continued
(and at least isolated) flash flood risk through 11Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--GcLw0JHkb-BmCswWSHvBLOTyerUqbsv4J5uH4qkmmGgYmCZg5f9Vd_q_gxWK5ky4nm= 5Ymdjh_rjvlMtC393j6NKog$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37769973 37549783 36139674 35699732 35889924=20
36649969=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301540
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0557
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians in PA, MD,
WV, and VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301538Z - 302000Z

Summary...Thunderstorms should develop between Noon and 2 PM EDT
in the Allegheny Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, southwest
Pennsylvania, and surrounding areas. The storms may initially move
slowly to the northeast, and the slow movement and heavy rain
rates, with over 1 inch of rainfall in an hour, may lead to
localized flash flooding in the early afternoon.

Discussion...Thunderstorms will become more numerous over the next
couple hours in the central Appalachians as most locations reach
the convective temperature in the low 80s, as indicated in the 12Z
PBZ and RNK soundings. Initiation will be favored first near the
ridge lines, and this is already evident in visible satellite
trends. LightningCast suggests that some lightning, and thus more
vigorous convective rainfall, may begin by 1630Z in at least a few
areas of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains. For the first
couple hours, convection is likely to move slowly to the northeast
based on hi-res model reflectivity and deep layer mean wind around
10-15 knots. In some cases, this may lead to some training
patterns where the terrain is closer to parallel with the mean
wind vector. But slow storm motion could sustain heavy rain rates
long enough over individual locations in general, and that could
lead to some localized flash flooding.

The probable increase in flash flood threat in the next few hours
is supported by the latest 12Z HREF probabilities showing
increasing chances of 1 inch per hour rain rates and 1hr and 3hr
FFG exceedance in these areas between 17Z and 20Z. The environment
is very supportive of intense instantaneous rain rates with
precipitable water values generally above the 95th percentile for
late June through the depth of the column (based on overall PW
percentiles and CIRA layer PW products). Therefore, it would be
plausible to even see some locations exceed an inch of rain in 30
minutes in the strongest convection.

Much of this area will be upgraded to a Slight Risk on the 16Z Day
1 ERO, which will be issued shortly.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5krKNLV5io90dzqiAS1bpHKqKXjWBI_GpbTGU8W_XEoQ7jYw6_1exHaUzcEs6JM0IALx= J0kaQFHuByq9cl9ZOVIAdD4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41237901 40897858 40647797 39587776 38587806=20
37987901 37237984 37578103 38398081 39497985=20
39937999 40318031 40858008 41197955=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301540
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0557
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians in PA, MD,
WV, and VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301538Z - 302000Z

Summary...Thunderstorms should develop between Noon and 2 PM EDT
in the Allegheny Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, southwest
Pennsylvania, and surrounding areas. The storms may initially move
slowly to the northeast, and the slow movement and heavy rain
rates, with over 1 inch of rainfall in an hour, may lead to
localized flash flooding in the early afternoon.

Discussion...Thunderstorms will become more numerous over the next
couple hours in the central Appalachians as most locations reach
the convective temperature in the low 80s, as indicated in the 12Z
PBZ and RNK soundings. Initiation will be favored first near the
ridge lines, and this is already evident in visible satellite
trends. LightningCast suggests that some lightning, and thus more
vigorous convective rainfall, may begin by 1630Z in at least a few
areas of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains. For the first
couple hours, convection is likely to move slowly to the northeast
based on hi-res model reflectivity and deep layer mean wind around
10-15 knots. In some cases, this may lead to some training
patterns where the terrain is closer to parallel with the mean
wind vector. But slow storm motion could sustain heavy rain rates
long enough over individual locations in general, and that could
lead to some localized flash flooding.

The probable increase in flash flood threat in the next few hours
is supported by the latest 12Z HREF probabilities showing
increasing chances of 1 inch per hour rain rates and 1hr and 3hr
FFG exceedance in these areas between 17Z and 20Z. The environment
is very supportive of intense instantaneous rain rates with
precipitable water values generally above the 95th percentile for
late June through the depth of the column (based on overall PW
percentiles and CIRA layer PW products). Therefore, it would be
plausible to even see some locations exceed an inch of rain in 30
minutes in the strongest convection.

Much of this area will be upgraded to a Slight Risk on the 16Z Day
1 ERO, which will be issued shortly.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9oq2vSjndfvdfxUznyeXb1VL1zbnwv13wmBd_1FUNeE2Oej0ttB7IN5FDrKq5_oBxKWe= koeCY3F58mlm3P4_ZGgp3GY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41237901 40897858 40647797 39587776 38587806=20
37987901 37237984 37578103 38398081 39497985=20
39937999 40318031 40858008 41197955=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301724
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0558
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Central New Mexico and Far Southern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301718Z - 302200Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are initiating over the mountains of far
southern Colorado and central New Mexico in the late morning, and
should continue to develop into the early afternoon. Any storms
are likely to be very slow moving to nearly stationary, which will
pose a threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
wherever the storms develop. Burn scars in New Mexico would be
particularly vulnerable if storms develop nearby, but a threat of
flash flooding will exist across the region in general.

Discussion...As of 11 AM MDT, thunderstorms were beginning to
develop in the favored mountain locations from south-central
Colorado through central New Mexico. This is expected to continue
over the next several hours as convective temperature is achieved,
and hi-res model guidance is consistent in showing a high
probability of storms through at least 4 PM MDT (22Z), but
possibly through the remainder of the afternoon. Available
moisture and instability is not particularly anomalous in this
case, so the threat of localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
should be driven more by extremely slow storm motions. Deep layer
mean wind is generally around 5 knots or less, and simulated
reflectivity on the hi-res guidance shows storms more-or-less
anchored to near their development locations for at least a couple
hours. So even though the instantaneous to 30-min rain rates may
not be exceptional, heavy rain could be sustained long enough to
produce localized rainfall maxima in excess of 2 inches,
especially in New Mexico. This could be enough to lead to flash
flooding based on flash flood guidance values. Burn scar locations
or urban areas would be particularly vulnerable, but any impact
would be dependent on storms developing close enough to those
locations.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Pui8VAzLlFJfLM41QczHK4q_fnzpu01iBc6LEDgqj3nXeZO_LBX6r0ijlHxJGipTUdg= hGEue2RB7LwECyNxzNd3aCg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37730678 37410603 37500499 36850473 36080513=20
35390520 34810557 34180552 33490550 32820574=20
32830625 34060655 34900662 35610698 36200727=20
36780689 37510728=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301754
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0559
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania, Southern and Central New
Jersey, and Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301752Z - 302200Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue early
this afternoon in southeast Pennsylvania, southern and central New
Jersey, and portions of Delaware. At times, these thunderstorms
may move very slowly or become nearly stationary, which would lead
to localized areas of very heavy rainfall and potentially flash
flooding, especially if that occurs over urban areas. The threat
of flash flooding should be highest through around 5-6 PM EDT, but
could last longer.

Discussion...Several well-organized thunderstorms have developed
in an area of strong instability from SE PA into S NJ and DE.
Hi-res model guidance has struggled with this, but the
experimental RRFS may be doing the best as of 1730Z. It shows
organized but isolated cells or small clusters persisting across
the area through about 22Z (6 PM EDT), anchoring at times to sea
breeze boundaries or a front draped across the region. There is
some evidence of this already happening with a thunderstorm near
coastal Sussex County, Delaware, and it could conceivably happen
with other storms elsewhere in the region. The environment is very
supportive of intense rain rates with PWs near or above 2 inches
(above the 95th percentile for late June) and very strong
instability. Therefore, hourly rainfall in excess of 2 inches is
plausible and if storms stall in a given location for over an
hour, rapid development of rainfall maxima over 3-4 inches would
be possible. In these areas, flash flooding could develop,
particularly if it intersects with urban areas.

The outlook beyond 21-22Z (5-6 PM EDT) is less certain, as the
hi-res model guidance doesn't look to be completely reliable. It
seems doubtful that all the instability in the region would be
completely exhausted by that time, so a continuation of the flash
flood threat could continue into the early evening. However, the
threat may shift to areas just outside where initial development
is occurring.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ikzzo3BcEBkJ5Yx9c5lyDTmlbXGWCTsyOCFkQYjxBt_tCvvW41MUTQJOU15BIsiEHIh= n6TnJqEPgwu14Ii9wlPhU4M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40897571 40737499 40397396 39817396 39407463=20
38997486 38377496 38457537 38977564 39537578=20
39827614 40147705 40807667=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302212
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-010330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0560
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OH...West Virginia...Northern MD...Pennsylvania...Southern NY...Parts of NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302210Z - 010330Z

SUMMARY...Unstable, very moist rich environment will likely
continue to support hourly rates of 2"+. Storm interactions with
possible repeating may generate spots of 2-3" resulting in widely
scattered incidents of possible flash flooding past nightfall.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad area of disturbed
weather at the apex of large scale ridging over the southern
Mid-Atlantic and points south. A digging large scale trough over
the Upper Great Lakes is providing oblique right entrance ascent
across the Lower Great Lakes, helping to drive deeper layer
southwesterly flow and associated anomalous (1.5-2.5 standard
anomalies) deep moisture through the Upper Ohio River Valley into
the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, ranging mainly above 2",
with spots of 2.25" noted. A slow moving warm front leads the
ushering of enhanced moisture and unstable air across the Hudson
Valley into the Lower Mohawk Valley, though much of the area
upstream remains quiet unstable with pockets of 2000-3000 J/kg
still remaining toward the end of day (greater further east into
the Mid-Atlantic).

Visible and 10.3 EIR loops show numerous clusters of thunderstorms
across the area; though as each has cycled and produced outflow to
support newer downstream generations; the broad southwesterly
steering upstream has brought some increased organization into
some SW to NE linear features through E OH/W PA into WV. Flow is
stronger having limited duration for initial
development/downdrafts, but with the component of alignment to the
mean wind, there are widely scattered incidents of short-term
training increasing duration to support localized 1.5- 2" totals.
Within the complex terrain that still remains fairly well
saturated, these localized totals may induce flash flooding given
hourly FFG over 1-1.5" and less than 2" in 3hrs; but may only
affect one or two watersheds/narrow valleys in the Allegheny
Plateau.

Further east, cell motions are a bit weaker being closer to the
apex of the larger scale ridge, though larger outflow boundaries
are being generated and interacting with Bay/Ocean Breeze or other
outflow boundaries to trigger newer/broader updrafts. Storm
interaction may further slow forward motions resulting in
increased duration that may last for slightly greater than 1hr. So
spots of 2-3" are possible as 18z HREF suggests with 40-50%
neighborhood probabilities for 2" and 20-30% exist over
east-central PA into N MD. As such, incidents of widely scattered
flash flooding remain possible through the late evening into early
overnight as instability slowly diminishes with loss of solar
heating.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Br1aZ4UwNf_HXpYwde9yFHWOEa8DJkYYExKm30Ls9GFxAxtDEpI841UaHdntHyDkLO9= TZfEtVAsMIoFssLtHIR-ac8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...PHI...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42897624 42387504 41017468 40357465 39577591=20
39247672 39057733 38647910 38208089 37738173=20
37948231 38848362 40588259 41718137 42357991=20
42657818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302238
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-010340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0561
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North and Northwest Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302240Z - 010340Z

SUMMARY...Initially slow moving, but very efficient thunderstorms
with 2-2.5"/hr rates will slowly propagate south and westward with
storm mergers and localized spots of 3-4" resulting in scattered
incidents of possible flash flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR shows explosive convective
development along the stalled outflow boundary from this morning's
convective complex from Hughes to Comanche county. MLCAPEs to
4000 J/kg and total PWats of 2" were trapped along the
northwestern edge of the sub-tropical ridge over much of Texas
into the northwest Gulf, the return flow axis remained nearly
aloft and generally parallel to the surface outflow boundary
though the dip (positive tilt) in the northern stream synoptic
trough has helped with support a 50kt jet with broad right
entrance ascent across much of the TX Panhandle into central OK.

Southerly flow across TX but northern flow out of KS/N OK has
helped to provide ample directional convergence but recent uptick
to 20kts from th south/southwest provided the deep layer
convergence to result in the entire line developing. CIRA LPW
shows the convergence is further increasing flux and TPW values of
2-2.25" that deep layer vertical moisture flux will support very
efficient rates up to 2-2.5"/hr. That directional shear and
proximity to the jet also support a bit of effective bulk shear
toward 20-25kts for modest organization to keep the downdrafts
fully collapsing into the updrafts and with weak dry air only a
few hundred J/kg will be utilized for cold pool generation.=20
Combine that with weak steering flow through depth toward the east
at 5kts; propagation will likely be mostly south and west into the
15-20kts of confluent boundary layer flow. So a hour or so should
support localized totals up to 3-4" before dropping south and
west.=20

Interaction with cells developing along outflow boundaries from
older complex over the Permian Basin will increase potential for
mergers and storm scale interaction to help cells increase totals
as the complex drops southward into northern TX as well. FFG
values are reduced further north, so best potential will be early
before moving into higher FFG values along/south of the Red River,
but localized flash flooding is still possible .

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!894nxsMkMuuDXxCipbCVd18CuWJnYxbuetLGZlXB_WmMGDLjcTLYAxpg7GQQxdVizjEu= vbagok35x2XvtmbL2rlIN6w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35319714 35099567 34389521 33349583 32929803=20
32589952 32920040 33380108 33890099 34350044=20
35069890=20

=3D =3D =3D
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