ACUS11 KWNS 271945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271945=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...western NE into southern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271945Z - 272145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing, outflow-dominated convection should yield a
threat for severe gusts along with isolated severe hail. Severe
thunderstorm watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection is increasing along the dryline
across the NE Panhandle into far northeast CO. This activity is
likely to persist as storm-scale convective outflows are generated
within an initially weak deep-layer shear environment. As outflows
impinge on progressively greater buoyancy into central NE and
south-central SD, a threat for severe gusts may persist over the
next several hours. Development ahead of dryline-forced convection
is not anticipated in the near-term owing to persistent
warm/moist-sector MLCIN, and this may curtail a greater hail threat.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5nVe-hAb6qc1ksE56QQNbhbP0XN-t7DrON2eNU9lTF0t4jQMj_KA5vL1OmfdH84wNhltmpzr8= sZGCfJVi4ZhvJxJqUo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42680232 41480278 40880257 40660182 41370051 42040005
42599996 43800013 43750155 42680232=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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