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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1475

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 27 20:37:23 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272037
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272036=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-272230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1475
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0336 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

    Areas affected...western/central ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 272036Z - 272230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorms may develop over the next couple
    hours, with greater storm coverage by early evening. Very large to
    giant hail will be possible with the most intense supercell or two,
    along with tornado and severe wind threats. Watch issuance is
    expected with moderate uncertainty on timing.

    DISCUSSION...A focused corridor of supercell development is
    anticipated this evening, perhaps as early as 22-23Z along a weak
    surface trough/front in western ND. More probable storm development
    is anticipated towards sunset, within the exit region of a
    strengthening low-level jet over SD/NE. The initially subtle/weak
    forcing for ascent lends some uncertainty to sustained storm
    timing/location. But once storms are sustained, weak low-level winds
    veering to moderate mid-level and stronger upper-level westerlies
    will yield a favorable hodograph for splitting supercell structures.
    In conjunction with very steep mid-level lapse rates with southern
    extent (as sampled by the 18Z UNR sounding) and ample buoyancy, this
    type of pattern should favor a risk for baseball to softball-size
    hail in a supercell or two before storms congeal into an MCS
    tonight. This seems most probable across central ND this evening.

    ..Grams/Hart.. 06/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_k1rmwiPxPD96cNXHcIvDfZ-IaOdk2qUfPiSOOPu7eXi080fbww8uoXp7cpAa-jKDD0hQfiGs= aaFCC50Sc3L31xHEQ8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 48969906 47899898 46669959 45730126 45770227 45920301
    47880243 48840187 49000043 48969906=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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