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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1480

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 28 00:17:54 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 280017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280017=20
    NDZ000-280115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1480
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0717 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

    Areas affected...central North Dakota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 468...

    Valid 280017Z - 280115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms ongoing across WW468 should continue to mature into
    supercells this evening. An initial risk for large to very large
    hail and damaging gusts is expected. A couple of tornadoes are
    possible later this evening as low-level flow is forecast to
    increase.

    DISCUSSION...Across WW468, satellite and radar imagery show initial
    updrafts are rapidly strengthening across ND early this evening.
    Aided by 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear,
    continued intensification is expected. As convection continues to
    develop, several supercells should mature with large to very large
    hail and damaging gusts likely. The most intense storms could
    produce hail to 3-4 inches in diameter.

    Wile low-level flow remains modest initially, hodogrpahs should
    begin to expand this evening with the intensification of the
    low-level jet. This could support a risk for a couple of tornadoes
    with the more intense supercells. Additional upscale growth may also
    favor an increase in the damaging wind threat later tonight.

    ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_MvoFhrXWMmchim1hgfii07dVyTdp-h7otNkWUIzdmfEmKMTB1Ar8BXXkOFEgo8_50rhBaeXx= odF3ZWk2KokYhS2lxo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46450232 48720165 48899921 48919834 46659815 46069906
    46050168 46450232=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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