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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1482

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 28 03:11:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 280308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280308=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-280445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1482
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1008 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

    Areas affected...Central and south central North Dakota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 468...

    Valid 280308Z - 280445Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for a couple of tornadoes, isolated very large hail
    and severe outflow gusts will persist for the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are ongoing across central and
    south central ND, and these storms previously produced hail up to
    2.5-2.75 inches in diameter and at least one tornado. Gradual
    cooling of the boundary layer post-sunset will result in gradual
    low-level stabilization. However, a concurrent increase in
    low-level shear/hodograph curvature suggests that there is still a
    window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes through about
    04-05z, as well as large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter. In
    time, there could be some upscale growth with cell interactions, and
    a larger storm cluster could evolve and move along the buoyancy
    gradient into southeast ND after 05z. If that evolution occurs, the
    threat for severe outflow gusts of 60-80 mph will increase.

    ..Thompson.. 06/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7lrtmUrKdJGlXI41WMp9j2q5Tm-ZBbT5EKezv9iDHwhmlBOxVSs5wggDcO_U1h8bravMgwBU3= ELkvLZT56EagBnxFBU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47570023 47839955 47849868 47449822 46779800 46209787
    45939824 45929922 45969991 46430059 47130092 47570023=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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