ACUS11 KWNS 281815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281814=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-281945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern Ohio...western
West Virginia...far southwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281814Z - 281945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong/damaging wind gusts may occur with the
stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is unlikely given the
sparse nature of the overall severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a weak
frontal boundary, amid a modifying airmass behind an earlier MCS.
Here, surface temperatures are rising into the upper 80s F, that
combined with low 70s F dewpoints and 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates, are
boosting MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg. However, modest deep-layer westerly
flow is resulting in weak vertical wind shear, and with buoyancy
constrained to tall/narrow profiles, the main concern is for
damaging gusts originating from the stronger storm cores. The severe
threat should remain quite isolated, so a WW issuance is not
expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LA9n-9q48Ht2tfio7dPDf_ebZsqNNUZ3UA7oceENvMtM-PMDWnVsUI_ewCq6zLUz1A5ECZKI= jpOyFeHmuMt6BYgyDo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 40028274 40408229 40738155 40818107 40728061 40418018
39967993 39557988 39238005 38968044 38758097 38628159
38578201 38718243 38868271 38988289 40028274=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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