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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1494

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 28 20:40:35 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 282040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282040=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-282215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1494
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into
    southern...central...and eastern Pennsylvania...Northern
    Maryland...southern New York...far western New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...

    Valid 282040Z - 282215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may still occur with the stronger
    cells or line segments over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters have aggregated into a linear
    complex across eastern OH into PA, while an MCS continues to decay
    while tracking eastward into eastern PA. The warm sector preceding
    these storms continues to destabilize. However, given residual
    static stability, it seems that an appreciable uptick in intensity
    with any ongoing storms is less likely, and that storms may have
    peaked in intensity over most locales. The one exception may be
    across southeastern PA, where a local increase in storm intensity
    was noted with cells encountering surface temperatures near 90 F.
    Nonetheless, while a few more strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled
    out over the next few hours, the current thinking is that a
    downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may not be needed
    unless an appreciable upward trend in storm intensity is somehow
    realized.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tuMjo7B6Kci14jLZ0nM5MR9yil-PWlaJZYO8IyDAHUDg092iW-6Pyd8AlgWh4C2JQJkTYO4y= oZSUXbxELkzR3GTRdA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39968153 40417983 40997694 41327644 41817618 42367578
    42467560 42327533 41817487 41097482 40327512 39727593
    39487665 39467988 39488004 39508069 39638146 39968153=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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