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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1500

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 29 01:13:39 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 290113
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290113=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-290245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1500
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0813 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

    Areas affected...far southeastern North Dakota...and western
    Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...

    Valid 290113Z - 290245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk for hail and
    damaging gusts. A brief tornado is also possible.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours across southern portions
    of WW472, several supercells have organized. The environment ahead
    of these storms across southeastern ND and western MN remains very
    favorable for strong supercells with 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40 kt
    of bulk shear. With the supercell mode and steep mid-level lapse
    rates present, large hail appears to be the most likely threat with
    these storms. However, these storms are approaching the northwestern
    fringes of a warm frontal zone with stronger low-level shear. This
    could support a brief tornado risk into this evening.

    Additionally, storms should begin to grow upscale and interact with
    additional storms farther south across MN. This is also supported by
    recent CAM guidance which shows eventual MCS development. This would
    support a greater risk for damaging gusts later this evening across
    southern portions of the watch.

    ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9mRm5SMXgXhFmCW2YeEcHPcN-nAW9GbKo5Obo5WreUrzc42RPCdRsfpxSQyI2PRWsILHPnlvP= JTv-GSN-FLP0YlDwo8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 46049571 45969721 46379748 46849731 47319559 47259468
    46699463 46389476 46119511 46089548 46049571=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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