ACUS11 KWNS 291757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291757=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-292000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1508
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...a part of the Upper MS Valley to eastern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291757Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic downbursts capable of isolated wind damage, along
with small to marginally severe hail will be possible as scattered thunderstorms likely develop through the afternoon. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...To the north of ongoing deep convection across
northeast MO, a separate MCV in southeast MN should aid in
increasing thunderstorm coverage downstream across a portion of the
Upper MS Valley. The airmass is uncapped with moderate buoyancy
characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, with surface temperatures
into the mid to upper 80s amid low 70s dew points. Deep-layer shear
profiles are expected to remain weak south, with light 0-4 km winds
per the DVN/MKX VWP, with modest shear north per the ARX/GRB VWP.
Initial cores will be capable of small to marginally severe hail and
locally strong gusts. Depending on the number of storms that form, a slower-moving multicell cluster may evolve across a portion of
southern to eastern WI with sporadic strong gusts.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Vl1DNpgmgOSIsx8pwRz1v5lBS2PDeUlGXA7Kq7kFXD2u7TV_lupwya_oEmjNpVoBBtTuYw5T= zIcBjjseNl2NcqaR-A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 43309236 43929225 44419078 44718988 44908895 44788794
44388780 43438835 42928855 42528901 42338980 42199107
42449160 43309236=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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