ACUS11 KWNS 291829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291828=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern WY...the NE Panhandle ...southwest SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 291828Z - 292030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated large hail and severe gusts are likely,
with scattered coverage possible by late afternoon. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is expected.

DISCUSSION...Initial, lower-topped convection has formed across far
southeast MT towards the Black Hills. This activity is expected to
strengthen over the next couple hours amid modest MLCAPE near 1000
J/kg and effective bulk shear around 40 kts. While the parameter
space is a step-down from yesterday, which should mitigate overall
intensity, the coverage of storms should be greater by peak heating.
Additional storms should develop within the weak upslope flow regime
across southeast WY. Both areas may eventually converge in the NE
Panhandle to far southwest SD vicinity by early evening. A few
supercells with large hail are most likely in the northern regime
surrounding the Black Hills. Severe gusts may be the primary hazard
farther south where multicell clustering dominates.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4o0iMRbapmdKX5EHtkURHYC_K93Dn1LnAbzYMQrXNXjzRHk3OZV6DGsAA4d_fQgidFyAQxxti= bCl4zoYMGWqSffKom4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 45350502 44520346 43690208 42970166 42050152 41470218
41160293 41120431 41070513 42440530 43820586 44550635
45350502=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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