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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1516

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 29 23:10:17 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292310
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292309=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-300115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1516
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0609 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

    Valid 292309Z - 300115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will continue this
    evening. Hail and wind remain the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-level flow has increased a bit within the base of
    the northern Plains upper trough. Latest data suggests 6km flow is
    around 30-35kt across northern portions of ww479, but noticeably
    weaker into northern CO. Over the next several hours, this flow
    should gradually veer into the northwest, and ongoing convection is
    expected to more readily advance downstream across the central High
    Plains, well north of a front that is draped across northwestern KS
    into northeast CO. While any semblance of a LLJ will remain confined
    to western KS, this activity appears to be aided in part by the
    upper trough. Latest radar data exhibits at least 4-5 longer-lived
    updrafts from southwestern SD into extreme northern CO. Most of
    these are generating severe hail. With time this activity should
    advance downstream into north central NE where a new severe
    thunderstorm watch may be warranted later this evening.

    ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8jGQV_uAPKMhdlXDNlqojBvKcB6t0qMOQp4nTHANShC4cdVkEoJxuJkG5V7TadTGLj3mlNlWm= IaNJGGznkNc7CvDZ6E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43960495 43950255 39110273 39120498 43960495=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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