Forum: Unleashed

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 5 00:59:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 050059
SWODY1
SPC AC 050057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will
remain possible across parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Evening water vapor imagery showed an upper low over MN/WI with a
second upper low, moving from the Four Corners into the central
Rockies. A pronounced shortwave trough over MS and AL is forecast to
move eastward ahead of a belt of enhanced mid-level flow that
extends over the lower third of the CONUS between the two more
dominant upper-level cyclones. An associated surface low over the
Great Lakes will move eastward as a trailing cold front moves across
the Midwest and Southeast.

...Southeast...
Evening radar and satellite observations show a band of
predominately disorganized convection has evolved along and ahead of
the cold front from eastern TN, to south-central AL, while a more
isolated convective cluster was ongoing over eastern GA. The
environment ahead of the front remains moist, with mid 60s to low
70s F surface dewpoints across much of the Southeast. However, lapse
rates remain quite poor generally around 6 C/km (00z BMX sounding)
which, along with the loss of diurnal heating is limiting buoyancy.
Still, area RAP profiles show around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE persisting
into the evening across eastern AL and into GA, which should be
sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts.

The enhanced flow aloft is also supporting marginal deep-layer shear
(30-35 kt) for storm organization with clusters and transient
supercells having been observed. Despite deep and low-level shear
forecast to weaken overnight, modestly curved hodographs may support
occasional rotation, with a low-end risk for a brief tornado or
damaging gust this evening. Eventually storms should weaken as the
environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the
western Carolinas overnight.

..Lyons.. 11/05/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 5 05:54:04 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 050553
SWODY1
SPC AC 050551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the Great Lakes is forecast to strengthen through
the day today as it merges with a weaker shortwave trough emanating
from the mid MS Valley. East of the mid-level cyclone, a belt of
enhanced southerly flow aloft will gradually overspread portions of
the Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard into the evening and
overnight hours. A broad surface low over the lower St Lawrence
valley will weaken as a second low forms over the eastern Great
Lakes. An associated diffuse cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the Appalachians toward the Atlantic Coast.

...Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic...
Ahead of the cold front a moist air mass will remain in place with
dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Low-level warm air advection will favor
cloudiness and only modest buoyancy with continued weak southerly
surface winds. The stronger flow aloft is expected to arrive later
in the diurnal cycle and will mainly be focused behind the cold
front. Given the weak overall forcing and modest buoyancy,
relatively isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Additional storms may develop along the front later in the evening,
but little severe potential is expected owing to the weak buoyancy
and poor overlap with stronger vertical shear.

...Southern New England...
Farther north, a moist but cooler boundary layer will likely be in
place ahead of the cold front from MA to southern NY. The humid
environment could support very weak buoyancy immediately ahead of
the front amid strengthening flow aloft. Frontal forcing is not
expected to be overly strong, but could support a shallow convective
band ahead of the front late in the evening and overnight. Some
potential may exist for intermittent strong gusts to reach the
surface, but confidence remains quite low.

...OK/TX...
A weak vorticity max will move across OK on the southwestern flank
of the larger-scale eastern trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will
support weak elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms expected
through the day and into the evening. Scattered elevated
thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South TX, as the southern
end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass near the Gulf. Weak
shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe risk.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/05/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 5 12:50:34 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051250
SWODY1
SPC AC 051248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery reveals several shortwave troughs
within the active upper pattern across the CONUS. A southern-stream
wave currently moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is
forecast to become increasingly phased with another wave dropping
through the Mid MS Valley, resulting in a unified upper trough from
the Great Lakes/Ontario through the southern Plains by 00Z Friday. Northern-stream upper ridging west of this upper trough is forecast
to move eastward over more of the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
while another quick-moving shortwave deepens as it moves into the
Intermountain West.

Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far western Quebec
southward into far western PA before continuing south-southwestward
to a weak low over the TN/NC border vicinity. Modest moisture exists
downstream from this front, with mid 60s dewpoints across much of VA
and low 60s dewpoints as far north as the Hudson Valley. Modest
northward moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this cold front
as it moves eastward today, supporting showers and thunderstorms
from the Mid-Atlantic into the New England.

...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast this
morning into the early afternoon, ahead of a weak low-amplitude
shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms are possible this evening
and overnight, beginning along and ahead the front across the
northern Mid-Atlantic before spreading northward into southern New
England and southward into the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. Buoyancy will be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates,
widespread cloud cover and post peak heating frontal timing.
Consequently, predominantly shallow, short-lived updrafts are
anticipated. However, given the presence of moderately strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow, any deeper convection could briefly
produce damaging gusts. Anticipated isolated and brief nature of any
severe threat currently precludes the need for any severe
probabilities.

...OK/TX...
As mentioned in the synopsis, the southern-stream wave currently
moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is forecast to
continue eastward across the OK vicinity today. Cool mid-level
temperatures will support weak elevated instability, with a few
thunderstorms expected through the day and into the evening.

Scattered elevated thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South
TX, as the southern end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass
near the Gulf. Weak shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe
risk.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/05/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 5 16:12:42 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051612
SWODY1
SPC AC 051610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Mid Atlantic to southern New England...
Broad southwesterly flow aloft is present today over the eastern
states, with a moist surface air mass in place along and east of the Appalachians. Forcing will be weak through the day, but an
approaching upper trough over the central US will result in
increasing thunderstorm potential after dark - especially from the
Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New England. Strong
winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but nocturnal cooling
will limit surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of
damaging winds. Nevertheless, an occasional storm could pose some
concern for gusty winds.

...KS/OK...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated pocket of cold mid-level
air will result in steep lapse rates and scattered afternoon
thunderstorms over parts of southern KS and northern OK.

..Hart/Supinie.. 11/05/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 5 19:55:08 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051954
SWODY1
SPC AC 051952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...20z Updates...
Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm coverage based on
trends in radar. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026/

...Mid Atlantic to southern New England...
Broad southwesterly flow aloft is present today over the eastern
states, with a moist surface air mass in place along and east of the Appalachians. Forcing will be weak through the day, but an
approaching upper trough over the central US will result in
increasing thunderstorm potential after dark - especially from the
Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New England. Strong
winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but nocturnal cooling
will limit surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of
damaging winds. Nevertheless, an occasional storm could pose some
concern for gusty winds.

...KS/OK...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated pocket of cold mid-level
air will result in steep lapse rates and scattered afternoon
thunderstorms over parts of southern KS and northern OK.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 01:02:16 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.

...Synopsis...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows broad troughing with several
embedded perturbations stretching from eastern Canada to the
southern Plains. Several of the more prominent shortwave troughs are
forecast to merge over the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH Valley
later this evening. This will help intensify a belt of strong
mid-level flow over the Appalachians and eastern Seaboard later this
evening.

At the surface, a cold front was observed from New England, along
the Appalachians to the Gulf Coast, with a second front moving
across the Plains. As these fronts move eastward this evening, they
should serve as the primary foci for shower and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours.

...Mid Atlantic to southern New England...
A moist surface air mass in place along and east of the front slowly
moving over the Appalachians. As the upper low approaches
thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase later tonight
especially from the Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New
England. Strong winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but
near-surface buoyancy is expected to remain fairly limited. As such,
the surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of damaging
winds is expected to remain low. Nevertheless, the strong flow
aloft, and scattered thunderstorms would not rule out an occasional
stronger wind gust overnight. This appears most likely across
DelMarVa into southern NY/NJ where the highest storm coverage is
expected through 6-12z.

..Lyons.. 11/06/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 05:55:18 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 060554
SWODY1
SPC AC 060553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the
eastern Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic Coast.

...Carolinas/Atlantic Coast...
An upper low over eastern Great Lakes at the start of the forecast
period is forecast merge with a shortwave trough moving from the mid
MS Valley across the central Appalachians. A belt of enhanced
deep-layer southwesterly flow will accompany the low across much of
the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front and broad area of
low pressure will stretch from southern New England to eastern North
Carolina. The low and front should gradually strengthen as they and
the upper trough move offshore into early Saturday morning.

Early in the period ahead of the cold front, a band of scattered
showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from southern New
England to the Carolinas, associated with continued northward
advection of mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints. Enhanced flow
aloft will overspread the area through the morning generally
parallel to the advancing front. The strongest upper-level winds
will likely remain on the cool side of the boundary, but model
soundings show effective shear values increasing to 30-40 kt within
the warm sector by late morning.

Given the presence of the unseasonably humid air mass, diurnal
heating and destabilization will tend to be muted by residual cloud
cover, especially with northward extent. Still, cooling mid-level
temperatures and modest buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) should be
sufficient to maintain isolated stronger storms eastward through
midday. Some organization into linear clusters or short bowing
segments is possible which would support a risk for damaging gusts.
Adequate hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km could also support
a brief tornado before convection weakens and moves offshore later
in the afternoon/early evening.

...AZ...
A second upper trough will move from the southern Great Basin into
the Southwest today and tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures will
accompany the upper trough, steeping mid-level lapse rates and
allowing for weak elevated buoyancy to develop. However the limited
instability and vertical shear should preclude a severe risk outside
of sporadic hail with an isolated stronger storm.

..Lyons/Halbert-K.. 11/06/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 13:00:52 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061300
SWODY1
SPC AC 061258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
An upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes this morning will
advance eastward over the Atlantic Coast states through the period.
An associated 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will likewise
translate eastward today across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England. A weak surface low analyzed over the southern Mid-Atlantic
will develop northeastward towards southern New England along a
front through the afternoon. A rather moist low-level airmass will
remain in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally
ranging in the mid to upper 60s.

12Z observed soundings from OKX/GSO show a nearly saturated boundary
layer and rather poor low/mid level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.5 C/km
in the 700-500 mb layer). Combined with widespread cloudiness
evident on recent visible satellite imagery, these modest lapse
rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak
instability and limit overall convective intensity. Still, ongoing
convection this morning along/ahead of the front may pose some risk
for isolated damaging winds given 30-40 kt of southwesterly
deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization and potential for
clustering. The threat for strong/gusty winds may extend into parts
of southern New England, but latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings
suggest little potential for surface-based instability to develop
across this region.

Somewhat better diurnal heating should occur with southward extent,
and greater instability (MLCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg) is forecast to
develop this afternoon across the central/eastern Carolinas and
southeast VA. A lobe of mid-level vorticity and associated forcing
for ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough/low should
overspread this region and support additional thunderstorm
development by 16-18Z along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front.
A mix of loosely organized clusters and marginal supercell
structures should pose a risk for occasional damaging winds,
especially if low-level lapse rates can become steepened through
filtered daytime heating. While low-level flow and related shear are
not forecast to be overly strong, a brief tornado or two also
appears possible. This activity should weaken and/or move offshore
by early evening.

...Southeast Arizona...
Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany an upper trough
progressing southeastward across the Southwest today, and weak
instability should develop this afternoon over parts of southeast
AZ. Deep-layer shear appears marginal for organized updrafts, but
occasional small hail could occur with the strongest cores that
develop.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 11/06/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 15:58:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061558
SWODY1
SPC AC 061556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Eastern NC...
An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending
southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern
states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in
northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud
cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime
heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling
aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of
around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that
there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the
19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not
particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the
approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a
few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A
small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme
southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable
environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores,
the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this
time.

..Hart/Kerr.. 11/06/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 19:46:54 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061946
SWODY1
SPC AC 061944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to clear behind ongoing convection.
See previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026/

...Eastern NC...
An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending
southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern
states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in
northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud
cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime
heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling
aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of
around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that
there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the
19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not
particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the
approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a
few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A
small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme
southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable
environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores,
the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this
time.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Nov 7 00:56:18 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 070056
SWODY1
SPC AC 070054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery showed an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes
continuing to drift eastward this evening. Gradual amplification of
this system is expected through tonight as it moves toward the coast
and merges with a less pronounced shortwave trough crossing the
southern Appalachians and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front
has largely moved offshore, limiting the effective warm sector.
Still, very weak elevated buoyancy may remain in place this evening
over Cape Hatteras and portions of the New England coast. Isolated
lightning strikes remain possible for a few more hours. Severe
potential is negligible.

...AZ...
A second upper low over the Desert Southwest is supporting isolated thunderstorms across parts of AZ and northern MX this evening. Cool
mid-level temperatures near the center of the low are aiding a
steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable environment. This may
continue through the first part of the overnight period before the
upper low shifts south of the international border and more stable
conditions develop. Weak buoyancy and vertical shear will preclude a
severe risk.

..Lyons.. 11/07/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Nov 7 06:10:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 070601
SWODY1
SPC AC 070559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east/northeast
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states today. In the wake of
the trough, a surface low will deepen off the coast of New England.
A strong surface cold front will move offshore with the low into the
Atlantic and Gulf waters early this morning. Isolated elevated
thunderstorms may occur with warm air advection ahead of the upper
cyclone across New England, though severe storms are not expected.

Along southern portions of the front near the Gulf Coast, additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of
southern/central TX. An upper cyclone moving out of northern MX will
bolster isentropic ascent behind the southward moving front
supporting scattered elevated thunderstorms. Instability will remain
meager and not supportive of severe storms.

Elsewhere, surface high pressure and offshore flow will favor dry
and stable conditions over the majority of the CONUS. The only
exception may be across the Olympic Peninsula where shallow
convection ahead of another upper trough may allow for a few
lightning strikes overnight.

..Lyons/Halbert-K.. 11/07/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Nov 7 12:48:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071248
SWODY1
SPC AC 071246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over the lower Great Lakes this morning will
move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Modest
low-level warm advection and cool mid-level temperatures may support
weak but sufficient MUCAPE for occasional lightning flashes with
convection that develops across parts of New England through the
day. Instability is expected to remain too limited to support
organized severe thunderstorms.

Mainly elevated thunderstorms should occur through the period across
parts of west/central/south TX, as a separate mid-level trough/low
translates east-southeastward from the Southwest into north-central
Mexico. A surface front will generally remain offshore from the
lower TX Coast, but large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough
and a modest increase in low-level warm advection late this
afternoon into tonight will aid the development of MUCAPE up to 500
J/kg, which should support some lightning with this elevated
activity.

Across the coastal Pacific Northwest, a low-topped line of
convection is forecast to approach the WA Coast after 00Z, with
strong low and mid-level winds expected to be present ahead of an
approaching upper trough. Low 50s surface dewpoints and minimal
diurnal heating both appear marginal to support more than very weak surface-based instability, and updrafts may not reach sufficient
height to induce charge separation and lightning flashes. Even so,
strong/gusty winds may occur with this convection as it spreads
inland across parts of coastal WA this evening/tonight. However,
given the very limited thermodynamic environment, confidence in
severe gusts remains too low to include any severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 11/07/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Nov 7 16:28:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071628
SWODY1
SPC AC 071626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts may occur along the immediate northwest
Washington coast late this evening into tonight.

...Synopsis...
Within the primary northern stream, embedded shortwave troughs will
move from the lower Great Lakes to New England and to the Pacific
Northwest coast, respectively. Weak buoyancy rooted close to 850 mb
could support isolated lightning flashes in the zone of ascent
across southern and eastern Maine. A strong shortwave trough and
associated cold front will reach the WA coast late this
evening/early tonight, with strong winds near 100 kt in the mid
levels and 55-70 kt close to 850 mb. A forced frontal rain band is
a possibility late this evening with the potential for strong gusts
to mix down to the surface within the band. After frontal passage,
weak buoyancy will develop in the steeper lapse rate environment,
where isolated lightning flashes will be possible with low-topped
convection. There is enough convective wind potential along the
immediate northwest WA coast to justify an addition of a 5%
wind/MRGL area.

Otherwise, the potential for occasional elevated thunderstorms
(rooted near 700 mb) will continue across the Rio Grande Valley in
TX. Convection rooted near the surface will be possible across deep
South TX per the 12z BRO sounding. While a bit of an increase in
deep-layer vertical shear is expected later today, poor lapse rate
profiles and low-level vertical shear suggest little threat for
organized severe storms. Farther east, isolated convective showers
will be possible across southeast FL along a diffuse frontal zone,
though minimal forcing for ascent and the potential for substantial
dry entrainment in the mid levels will limit any thunderstorm
potential.

..Thompson/Barnes.. 11/07/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Nov 7 19:52:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071952
SWODY1
SPC AC 071950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts may occur along the immediate northwest
Washington coast late this evening into tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
Within the primary northern stream, embedded shortwave troughs will
move from the lower Great Lakes to New England and to the Pacific
Northwest coast, respectively. Weak buoyancy rooted close to 850 mb
could support isolated lightning flashes in the zone of ascent
across southern and eastern Maine. A strong shortwave trough and
associated cold front will reach the WA coast late this
evening/early tonight, with strong winds near 100 kt in the mid
levels and 55-70 kt close to 850 mb. A forced frontal rain band is
a possibility late this evening with the potential for strong gusts
to mix down to the surface within the band. After frontal passage,
weak buoyancy will develop in the steeper lapse rate environment,
where isolated lightning flashes will be possible with low-topped
convection. There is enough convective wind potential along the
immediate northwest WA coast to justify an addition of a 5%
wind/MRGL area.

Otherwise, the potential for occasional elevated thunderstorms
(rooted near 700 mb) will continue across the Rio Grande Valley in
TX. Convection rooted near the surface will be possible across deep
South TX per the 12z BRO sounding. While a bit of an increase in
deep-layer vertical shear is expected later today, poor lapse rate
profiles and low-level vertical shear suggest little threat for
organized severe storms. Farther east, isolated convective showers
will be possible across southeast FL along a diffuse frontal zone,
though minimal forcing for ascent and the potential for substantial
dry entrainment in the mid levels will limit any thunderstorm
potential.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 00:35:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 080035
SWODY1
SPC AC 080033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts may occur over portions of northwest
Washington this evening into tonight.

...Northwest Washington...

Level-1/Marginal Risk wind probabilities have been expanded inland
with this forecast update to account for a potentially wider
corridor of severe wind gust potential, mainly in the 08/02-05z
timeframe.

A strongly forced prefrontal rainband currently off the coast will
move onshore within the next hour or so before reaching the I-5
corridor by 08/05-06z. Very strong low-level flow precedes the
rainband with KLGX VWP data indicating 50-55 kt southerly winds in
the lowest km AGL. While instability remains quite weak (MUCAPE of
100-150 J/kg, per the 00Z UIL sounding), downdraft-aided turbulent
mixing in the vicinity of embedded bowing/LEWP structures may be
sufficient to support isolated severe wind gusts as the band moves
inland. A few strong to severe wind gusts and greater lightning
potential may accompany widely scattered, post-frontal convection
moving onshore in tandem with a plume of steepening 0-3 km lapse
rates.

...Central Texas into the lower Rio Grande Valley...

Downstream from an upper low over northwest Mexico, a weak
perturbation has advanced into west-central TX this evening with a
secondary, stronger impulse forecast to overspread the Edwards
Plateau overnight. Forcing for ascent associated with those features
will interact with a marginally unstable air mass (MUCAPE < 1000
J/kg) to support a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage into
early Sunday morning, especially over the lower Rio Grande
Valley/Deep South TX. Onshore flow of an increasingly moist boundary
layer (per the 00Z BRO sounding) into those areas may allow some
storms to become surface-based amidst a modestly sheared kinematic
environment. While a strong storm or two is possible, severe weather
potential currently appears negligible.

...Maine...

Within the base of broader midlevel troughing, an intense vorticity
maximum will pivot from the Mid-Atlantic into New England overnight,
yielding strong forcing for ascent across the region. The 00Z CAR
sounding exhibited modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop a rather
deep saturated layer, which yields MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg -
sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development.

..Mead.. 11/08/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 05:35:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 080535
SWODY1
SPC AC 080533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms appear unlikely across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday
night.

...South Texas...

An upper low over Sonora, Mexico, late this evening is forecast to
move/develop toward the TX Big Bend with an attending belt of
enhanced mid/upper-level flow present over central and southern TX.
The 00Z Brownsville and Corpus Christi, TX, soundings sampled a
seasonably moist air mass (e.g., PW of 1.7") advancing inland ahead
of the upper-air system with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to
rise into the low to mid 70s across Deep South TX on Sunday. That
moisture will contribute to at least marginal instability, which,
coupled with persistent low/midlevel warm advection downstream from
the upper low, will foster multiple waves of thunderstorms during
the forecast period.

A vertically veering wind profile with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer
shear is forecast across the region on Sunday, which would
conditionally support supercell storm modes and an associated severe
weather threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists in the
extent to which the air mass can destabilize due to the deleterious
effects of convective outflow and cloud cover arising from early-day
storms. As such, no severe weather probabilities will be included in
this forecast.

...Washington...

While the strongest forcing for ascent will shift away from the
region Sunday morning, steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer may
support a few sufficiently deep convective updrafts for lightning
generation into afternoon.

...Lower Great Lakes and Maine...

Isolated lightning occurrences appear possible over ME Sunday
morning in association with an upper low moving through the area.
Sporadic lightning activity may also occur in the lee of the lower
Great Lakes Sunday night within a zone of strong dynamic
ascent/midlevel cooling present on the cyclonic side of
mid/upper-level wind maxima progressing into the region. In both
areas, areal lightning coverage is expected to be less than 10%.

..Mead.. 11/08/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 12:42:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081242
SWODY1
SPC AC 081240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
appear possible.

...South Texas...
Downstream of a mid/upper-level trough/low over northern Mexico,
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of south TX. A
weak surface low/inverted trough is also analyzed across this
region, with greater low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s
surface dewpoints) present across the lower TX Coast. Weak
surface-based instability should develop this morning as filtered
daytime heating occurs, and strong to locally severe thunderstorms
may occur near the coast in the vicinity of Corpus Christi. Modest
enhancement to the low-level winds (southeasterly around 20-25 kt;
reference 12Z CRP observed sounding) and sufficient deep-layer shear
should exist for organized updrafts, including marginal supercell
structures (with one attempt already observed southwest of KCRP).
While low/mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, any sustained
surface-based supercell could produce isolated severe/damaging winds
and perhaps a brief tornado given effective SRH around 100 m2/s2.
Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms are forecast across a broader
portion of south-central TX, as large-scale ascent preceding the
upper trough/low overlaps with a weakly unstable airmass inland.

...Pacific Northwest...
Thunderstorm potential should continue to diminish this morning as
large-scale ascent associated with a strong mid/upper-level trough
moves inland across the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. But,
occasional lightning flashes may still occur with post-frontal
low-topped convection in the short term, as cold mid-level
temperatures support weak MUCAPE.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/08/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 16:16:38 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081616
SWODY1
SPC AC 081614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE MIDDLE-LOWER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
appear possible.

...Middle-lower TX coast today...
A midlevel low over northern Mexico will drift slowly eastward and
weaken through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone along
the middle-lower TX coast will provide a focus for thunderstorms
rooted at the surface, where boundary-layer dewpoints will remain
near 70 F. Per the 12z observed soundings/VWPs/model forecasts,
deep-layer vertical shear will remain sufficient for some embedded
rotating storms, with the relatively stronger low-level
shear/hodograph curvature expected along the north edge of the
surface-based buoyancy with a small MCV just south of CRP. Poor
midlevel lapse rates will temper the overall severe threat, though
an isolated, weak tornado and/or localized wind damage will be
possible with embedded circulations today.

Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms will remain possible from the
Edwards Plateau into interior south TX in a moist environment with
ascent and weak buoyancy atop the cooler near-surface air mass.

...Pacific Northwest and the lower Great Lakes...
The potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped
convection will diminish across northwest WA by about midday as a
midlevel trough moves inland and height rises ensue. A separate
midlevel trough will continue southeastward over the lower Great
Lakes by this evening into early tonight. Cooling midlevel
temperatures and weak buoyancy aided by the relatively warm lakes
will support convection that could become sufficiently deep to
support charge separation and isolated lightning flashes.

..Thompson/Barnes.. 11/08/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 19:34:10 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081933
SWODY1
SPC AC 081931

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected this afternoon and evening. A
few stronger storms may persist near the middle to lower Texas
coast.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk along the lower Texas coast was removed with this
update. Temperatures have been gradually cooling with the air mass
inland becoming overworked by ongoing rain/thunderstorm activity.
While shear profiles remain favorable, the more favorable air mass
with remain mainly offshore limiting the severe potential inland. A
few stronger occasionally rotating storms may persist over water.

..Halbert-E.. 11/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026/

...Middle-lower TX coast today...
A midlevel low over northern Mexico will drift slowly eastward and
weaken through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone along
the middle-lower TX coast will provide a focus for thunderstorms
rooted at the surface, where boundary-layer dewpoints will remain
near 70 F. Per the 12z observed soundings/VWPs/model forecasts,
deep-layer vertical shear will remain sufficient for some embedded
rotating storms, with the relatively stronger low-level
shear/hodograph curvature expected along the north edge of the
surface-based buoyancy with a small MCV just south of CRP. Poor
midlevel lapse rates will temper the overall severe threat, though
an isolated, weak tornado and/or localized wind damage will be
possible with embedded circulations today.

Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms will remain possible from the
Edwards Plateau into interior south TX in a moist environment with
ascent and weak buoyancy atop the cooler near-surface air mass.

...Pacific Northwest and the lower Great Lakes...
The potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped
convection will diminish across northwest WA by about midday as a
midlevel trough moves inland and height rises ensue. A separate
midlevel trough will continue southeastward over the lower Great
Lakes by this evening into early tonight. Cooling midlevel
temperatures and weak buoyancy aided by the relatively warm lakes
will support convection that could become sufficiently deep to
support charge separation and isolated lightning flashes.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 00:52:04 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 090051
SWODY1
SPC AC 090050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...South Texas...

An upper low over southwest Chihuahua, Mexico, this evening will
progress toward the TX Big Bend overnight. Modest midlevel height
falls preceding that feature will combine with persistent
low/midlevel warm advection and a moist environment with MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg (per the 00Z BRO and CRP soundings) to yield an
increase in thunderstorm coverage overnight. While no severe weather
is expected, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is
possible.

...Lower Great Lakes...

Ongoing showers over portions of southwest Ontario are indicative of
increased forcing for ascent associated with a vorticity maximum
moving through that region. So far, convection has remained too
shallow to support charge separation and lightning production.
However, as the forcing begins to overspread the lower Great Lakes,
sensible heat and moisture fluxes may be sufficient to yield deeper
convective updrafts capable of sporadic lightning over far western
NY and in the Tug Hill region.

..Mead.. 11/09/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 05:34:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 090534
SWODY1
SPC AC 090532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the U.S. Monday through
Monday night.

...South Texas...

An upper low initially near the Big Bend region at 12z Monday is
forecast to weaken through the day while a series of embedded
perturbations track from the lower Rio Grande Valley along the
coast. Forcing for ascent associated with those features along with
persistent low/mid-level warm advection is likely to sustain
scattered thunderstorms through the morning with areal coverage
gradually decreasing by mid to late afternoon.

Similar to Sunday, the kinematic environment will feature veering
winds with height with around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, which would conditionally support supercell storm modes and some severe weather
threat. While a strong storm or two is possible Monday morning, it
appears that outflow associated with early-day convection is likely
to limit more robust air mass destabilization and an associated
severe weather threat.

...Pacific Northwest...

A short-wave trough is forecast to move onshore Monday afternoon
with associated height falls/midlevel cooling coinciding with moist,
onshore flow in the low levels. Those processes will yield weak
instability (MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) with forecast soundings
indicating the potential for convective updrafts to reach sufficient
depth for episodic lightning activity from the coast inland to at
least the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening. Somewhat analogous
to Saturday, strong low-level winds are forecast ahead of the
surface front, suggesting some potential for a few strong wind gusts
in association with any deeper convective elements moving onshore.

...South Florida...

A few lightning strikes may occur with diurnally enhanced
thunderstorms Monday afternoon amidst a moist and marginally
unstable air mass. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm and
dry nose centered in the 650-600 mb layer, which will likely inhibit
the majority of convective updrafts from reaching sufficient depth
for lightning discharge.

..Mead.. 11/09/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 12:42:16 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091241
SWODY1
SPC AC 091240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Generally elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of south TX to the north of a weak inverted surface trough.
This convection is being aided by large-scale ascent and modest
low-level warm advection occurring ahead of a weak upper trough over
west TX/northern Mexico. Weak MUCAPE and poor lapse rates aloft are
expected to limit the severe threat this morning (reference the 12Z
observed CRP/BRO soundings). Also, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms over land appears lower than yesterday, and any
stronger thunderstorms should tend to focus offshore through the
morning into early afternoon.

Another fast-moving upper trough is forecast to overspread the
Pacific Northwest this afternoon through tonight. Surface dewpoints
in the upper 40s to low 50s and filtered daytime heating should
allow MUCAPE up to 100-300 J/kg to develop along/ahead of a
low-topped band of convection expected to move quickly eastward
across coastal WA/OR this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes
may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will be
fairly cold. While strong low/mid-level winds veering with height
appear conditionally favorable for organized updrafts, the meager
instability should tend to limit the risk for severe gusts.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/09/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 16:12:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091611
SWODY1
SPC AC 091609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows an elongated upper low centered over
the TX Big Bend vicinity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
currently ongoing within the broad warm-air advection regime
downstream of this low from central and south TX across much of the
TX Coastal Plains into southeast TX. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings
sampled a seasonally moist airmass characterized by PW values over
1.8" and poor lapse rates. General expectation is for showers and
elevated thunderstorms to continue throughout the day while
diminishing in strength and intensity as an embedded shortwave
trough continues northeastward. The warm sector, which is
characterized by upper 60s dewpoints, is forecast to remain largely
offshore as the associated surface low drifts very slowly eastward.
These factors should all act to keep the overall severe weather
threat very low.

Guidance also suggests a fast-moving shortwave trough will progress
through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, with the
primary frontal band arriving close to 00Z. Occasional lightning
flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will
be fairly cold, but most of the convection should be shallow.
Enhanced southwesterly flow will exist across the region, but the
limited instability and shallow storm depth should limit the risk
for severe gusts.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/09/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 20:50:52 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091956
SWODY1
SPC AC 091954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows an elongated upper low centered over
the TX Big Bend vicinity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
currently ongoing within the broad warm-air advection regime
downstream of this low from central and south TX across much of the
TX Coastal Plains into southeast TX. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings
sampled a seasonally moist airmass characterized by PW values over
1.8" and poor lapse rates. General expectation is for showers and
elevated thunderstorms to continue throughout the day while
diminishing in strength and intensity as an embedded shortwave
trough continues northeastward. The warm sector, which is
characterized by upper 60s dewpoints, is forecast to remain largely
offshore as the associated surface low drifts very slowly eastward.
These factors should all act to keep the overall severe weather
threat very low.

Guidance also suggests a fast-moving shortwave trough will progress
through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, with the
primary frontal band arriving close to 00Z. Occasional lightning
flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will
be fairly cold, but most of the convection should be shallow.
Enhanced southwesterly flow will exist across the region, but the
limited instability and shallow storm depth should limit the risk
for severe gusts.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Nov 10 00:37:40 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 100037
SWODY1
SPC AC 100035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Pacific Northwest...

Within the southern fringe of a broader precipitation band preceding
a vigorous short-wave trough, embedded convective elements
sufficiently deep for lightning generation have recently moved onto
the OR coast. Modification of the 00Z UIL sounding for a slightly
warmer and more moist PBL farther to the south yields a narrow CAPE
profile extending upwards into the -10 to -20 C layer with MUCAPE of
a few hundred J/kg, which is consistent with the lightning
observations. A similar thermodynamic environment is expected to
spread inland this evening into tonight, supporting the continuation
of sporadic lightning occurrences. Turbulent downward mixing of
stronger flow aloft may yield a few strong wind gusts; however,
severe weather is not expected.

...Portions of Deep South Texas to the middle Texas Coast....

As of 00Z, the most vigorous convection was located offshore to the
southeast of Brownsville, within a zone of stronger surface-based
buoyancy. Farther north along the lower to middle TX Coast, a modest
low-level warm-advection regime is expected to persist overnight, in
which a few elevated thunderstorms will remain possible amidst a
marginally unstable environment (per 00Z BRO/CRP soundings).

..Mead.. 11/10/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Nov 10 05:39:42 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 100539
SWODY1
SPC AC 100537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...

A progressive and amplifying polar branch of westerlies is forecast
over the northern CONUS Tuesday and Tuesday night. Within that air
stream, a short-wave trough will move through the Northeast, while
an upstream system intensifies over the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude system over TX is expected to
de-amplify while advancing into the lower MS Valley. At the surface,
a lee cyclone and attending trough initially over the High Plains
will shift east through the northern and central Plains into the
Midwest, in tandem with the previously mentioned upper-air system.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of that frontal system will support
the poleward advance of a partially modified continental-polar air
mass from the southern Plains into the Ozarks.

Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along the middle TX Coast
Tuesday morning, and from the middle TX Coast into southern LA
Tuesday night, within a zone of low-level warm advection and weak
instability preceding the midlevel wave. Along the Pacific Northwest
Coast, moist onshore flow coupled with a slight steepening of
midlevel lapse rates will yield weak instability and the potential
for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Over
south FL, slight cooling aloft will combine with a moist PBL to
yield MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg by afternoon when isolated
thunderstorms appear possible.

Elsewhere, isolated lightning strikes appear possible over northern
or central TX, northern New England, and perhaps the eastern Dakotas
Tuesday afternoon into evening. Lightning duration and coverage in
those areas appear too limited to warrant general thunderstorm/10%
probability contours.

..Mead.. 11/10/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Nov 10 12:39:04 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 101238
SWODY1
SPC AC 101236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms may persist for much of the period across
coastal TX/LA as a weak mid-level shortwave trough evolves eastward
across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. With MUCAPE
forecast to generally remain less than 1000 J/kg amid modest lapse
rates aloft, any hail with stronger cells that develop over land
should remain sub-severe. Occasional lightning flashes may also
occur with low-topped convection that will move quickly
east-northeastward across parts of coastal WA today in tandem with
another mid-level shortwave trough, but very weak instability will
limit the severe threat with this activity.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/10/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Nov 10 16:21:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 101621
SWODY1
SPC AC 101619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along the Middle
to Upper Texas Coast tonight.

...TX Coast...
Recent surface analysis places an inverted trough just off the Lower
TX Coast. Warm-air advection near this trough is supporting an area
of showers and thunderstorms. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings show a deep
and moist boundary layer atop relatively cool mid-level temperatures
(around -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb). Enhanced mid-level flow exists
above 700 mb as well, contributing to moderate shear within the
cloud bearing layer. These factors could support isolated updrafts
capable of marginally severe hail through the early afternoon.
Weakening warm-air advection should lead to weakening thunderstorm
coverage and intensity during the late afternoon/early evening.

The weak vorticity maximum currently over the TX South Plains will
drift southeastward today, interacting with this more moist and
buoyant airmass along the coast around 00Z. Ascent associated with
this wave coupled with modest warm-air advection will likely result
in increasing thunderstorm coverage after 00Z. Mid-level
temperatures will cool slightly as well, supporting an increase in
the elevated buoyancy across the region. Mid-level flow throughout
this layer will remain strong, with cloud-bearing layer shear over
50 kt. These environmental conditions appear supportive of
marginally severe hail within any of the more persistent updrafts.

...Elsewhere...
Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection
that will move quickly east-northeastward across parts of coastal WA
today in tandem with another mid-level shortwave trough, but very
weak instability will limit the severe threat with this activity.
Late afternoon thunderstorms are also possible within the moist
confluent flow over the central/southern FL Peninsula.

A few flashes are also possible near the center of the TX vorticity
maximum over central/north-central TX this afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorm coverage in this region is currently expected to be
less than 10 percent.

..Mosier/Halbert-K.. 11/10/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Nov 10 19:45:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 101945
SWODY1
SPC AC 101943

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along the Middle
to Upper Texas Coast tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 11/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026/

...TX Coast...
Recent surface analysis places an inverted trough just off the Lower
TX Coast. Warm-air advection near this trough is supporting an area
of showers and thunderstorms. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings show a deep
and moist boundary layer atop relatively cool mid-level temperatures
(around -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb). Enhanced mid-level flow exists
above 700 mb as well, contributing to moderate shear within the
cloud bearing layer. These factors could support isolated updrafts
capable of marginally severe hail through the early afternoon.
Weakening warm-air advection should lead to weakening thunderstorm
coverage and intensity during the late afternoon/early evening.

The weak vorticity maximum currently over the TX South Plains will
drift southeastward today, interacting with this more moist and
buoyant airmass along the coast around 00Z. Ascent associated with
this wave coupled with modest warm-air advection will likely result
in increasing thunderstorm coverage after 00Z. Mid-level
temperatures will cool slightly as well, supporting an increase in
the elevated buoyancy across the region. Mid-level flow throughout
this layer will remain strong, with cloud-bearing layer shear over
50 kt. These environmental conditions appear supportive of
marginally severe hail within any of the more persistent updrafts.

...Elsewhere...
Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection
that will move quickly east-northeastward across parts of coastal WA
today in tandem with another mid-level shortwave trough, but very
weak instability will limit the severe threat with this activity.
Late afternoon thunderstorms are also possible within the moist
confluent flow over the central/southern FL Peninsula.

A few flashes are also possible near the center of the TX vorticity
maximum over central/north-central TX this afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorm coverage in this region is currently expected to be
less than 10 percent.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 00:43:38 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 110043
SWODY1
SPC AC 110041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along portions
of the Middle and Upper Texas Coast tonight.

...Middle and Upper Texas Coast...

Water vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough currently moving
through South TX with a downstream belt of forcing for ascent
expected to yield an increase in storm coverage and intensity
tonight over the coastal plain and adjacent near-shore waters. In
the low levels, a weak cyclone may deepen over the shelf water along
a baroclinic zone pivoting toward the coast. The strongest storms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of those features, which
will coincide with greater surface-based buoyancy.

Onshore instability will remain more limited and elevated atop a
stable near-surface inversion. The 00Z CRP and BRO soundings are
likely representative of the ambient thermodynamic environment with
around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and a modestly steep lapse-rate profile
noted in the 600-500 mb layer at CRP. The current KHGX VWP is
sampling generally 35-50 kt west-southwesterly winds above 4 km,
which are contributing sufficient deep-layer shear to support
episodic supercell structures embedded within the broader convective
shield. Marginally severe hail will be the primary hazard with the
strongest storms.

..Mead.. 11/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 06:44:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 110553
SWODY1
SPC AC 110551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and perhaps a tornado will be possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys.

...Synopsis...

A lead short-wave trough will move through portions of the southern
Great Lakes and OH Valley on Wednesday, ahead of a stronger upstream
system and attending mid/upper-level wind maxima, which will
progress through the mid-MO and mid-MS Valleys into the Mid-South/TN
Valley. The net result will be a broad zone of height falls/forcing
for ascent overspreading the OH and TN Valleys Wednesday afternoon
into night. In the low levels, a cyclone will track from eastern IA
at 12Z Wednesday through central IL and IN during the afternoon
before reaching the upper OH Valley late Wednesday night. Meanwhile,
a trailing cold front will advance southeast through the mid-MS,
much of the OH, and TN Valleys during the forecast period.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley...

00Z observed soundings and current surface observations indicate the
presence of a partially modified continental-polar air mass in place
over the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, characterized by
boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s and lowest 100-mb mean-mixing
ratios of 9-10.5 g/kg. That moisture will be advected into the
region on Wednesday ahead of the front and beneath a plume of
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (e.g., 7-7.5 C/km), yielding a
relatively narrow axis of MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg by mid-late
afternoon.

Divergence aloft in the exit region of the upper-level jet streak
will enhance convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and
trailing front, resulting in a gradual increase in storm coverage
and intensity through the afternoon, initially from northern and
eastern IL into IN. Subsequent storm development is anticipated by
late afternoon into evening from portions of western and central KY
into middle TN, though storm coverage is likely to decrease with
southward extent.

The presence of 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear with a vector
orientation largely perpendicular to the surface front should favor semi-discrete storm modes, which is consistent with several REFS
ensemble members. The somewhat marginal CAPE-shear parameter space
may limit the potential for sustained supercells, and an associated
greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, the relatively steep
low/midlevel lapse rates with 500-mb temperatures approaching -20 C
will be supportive of isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds, especially with any transient supercell structures
and/or bowing line segment. A tornado is possible during the late
afternoon or early evening as low-level shear strengthens. However,
convective inhibition is expected to increase fairly quickly during
the evening, suggesting any threat will be short-lived.

...Central and Southern Florida...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass (e.g., MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg) is forecast to the south of a weak west-to-east oriented
surface boundary/confluence zone over the central peninsula. Aided
by the glancing influence of a weak disturbance passing to the
north, thunderstorms should increase in areal coverage through the
afternoon, especially from the south-central peninsula toward the
Atlantic Coast. The presence of 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear may
foster a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or outflow winds
approaching severe levels.

..Mead.. 11/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 12:57:40 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 111257
SWODY1
SPC AC 111255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA...WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail, damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of eastern Illinois into Indiana, western/central Kentucky,
and middle Tennessee.

...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley into Middle Tennessee...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave
trough digging southeastward over the Upper Midwest towards the mid
MS Valley, with recent elevated thunderstorm development noted over
eastern IA capable of producing small hail (reference ~300 J/kg
MUCAPE in the 12Z observed DVN sounding). A related weak surface low
will develop from southeast IA this morning to the IN vicinity by
late afternoon/early evening. A trailing cold front will continue
advancing east-southeastward across the southern Plains, mid MS Valley/Mid-South, and lower OH Valley this afternoon and evening.
The main uncertainty and likely limiting factor to severe potential
today remains shallow/limited low-level moisture ahead of the front
across the Midwest/lower OH Valley, where latest surface
observations show dewpoints generally in the 30s to mid 40s.
Somewhat greater low-level moisture associated with a modified
continental polar airmass is present across the southern Plains into
the Ozarks/lower MS Valley. But, west-northwesterly low-level flow
noted in area VWP trends and forecast low-level trajectories suggest
this moisture will struggle to advect northward through the day,
perhaps reaching parts of middle TN/southern KY. Therefore, most
guidance appears a bit moist with boundary-layer dewpoints and
related instability this afternoon, although some mid-level
moistening could occur.

Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to
initially develop over eastern IL by 18-21Z, with additional
development possible with southward extent along/ahead of the front
in western/central KY through the afternoon/early evening as the
boundary layer gradually destabilizes. The combination of weak, but
potentially sufficient, MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear
oriented largely orthogonal to the surface cold front should support
updraft organization. A mix of clusters and marginal supercells are
expected to evolve and spread quickly eastward while posing an
isolated threat for hail and damaging winds given cold mid-level
temperatures and modestly steepened low-level lapse rates. However,
the lack of greater low-level moisture/stronger instability should
tend to limit the overall severe threat. Modestly enhanced low-level
shear may also support a tornado risk, especially if a supercell can
develop and be sustained. But, tendency for low-level flow to veer
to westerly should reduce effective SRH with time through the late afternoon/evening. The isolated severe risk should wane this evening
with eastward extent across the lower OH Valley as instability
diminishes with the loss of daytime heating.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should preferentially form along
the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon across the
central/southern FL Peninsula. Glancing large-scale ascent
associated with a weak mid-level perturbation over the Southeast
should aid this convective development, but multiple inversions
aloft noted in the 12Z observed MFL/TBW soundings should tend to
limit updraft intensities. Still, small hail and gusty winds could
occur with the stronger cores given the presence of moderate
instability and 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 16:32:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 111632
SWODY1
SPC AC 111630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail, damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of eastern Illinois into Indiana, western/central Kentucky,
and middle Tennessee. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also
possible across the east-central Florida Peninsula.

...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley into Middle Tennessee...
Recent satellite imagery shows a lead shortwave trough moving into
northern IL, with another shortwave trough farther back northwest
moving into the Mid MO Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
near the lead shortwave. Thunderstorm intensity has decreased over
the last half hour or so as these storms move into an environment
with less elevated buoyancy (as observed by the 12Z ILX sounding).
The lead shortwave is forecast to continue eastward into the OH
Valley while the second shortwave continues more southeastward into
the Lower OH Valley vicinity. The surface low currently over the
IA/IL border vicinity is forecast to progress eastward with the lead
wave while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward through the
mid MS Valley/Mid-South, and lower OH Valley this afternoon and
evening.

Increasing low-level moisture is anticipated ahead of this front,
advecting northeastward into the region from the Ozarks/Mid-South
region. Recent surface analysis shows the mid 50s dewpoints are
still in northern AR, so there is some question as to how far
northeastward the greater low-level moisture will reach before
frontal passage. Current expectation is for the best overlap between
low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) with the stronger
large-scale ascent will occur across southern IN and adjacent
western KY. Here, the combination of weak buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE
around 500-800 J/kg) and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear
oriented largely orthogonal to the surface cold front should support
a mix of bowing clusters and supercells. Isolated hail and damaging
gusts will be the primary risks. Hail is more likely with any more
cellular activity and damaging gusts more likely with any
fast-moving bowing segments. Modestly enhanced low-level
shear may also support a low-probability tornado risk, but a
tendency for low-level flow to veer to westerly should reduce
effective SRH with time through the late afternoon/evening. The
isolated severe risk should diminish with eastward extent this
evening across the lower OH Valley as front outruns the low-level
moisture and daytime heating wanes.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
central/southern FL Peninsula this afternoon. Glancing large-scale
ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation over the
Southeast should aid this convective development. A warm layer
around 700 mb could limit overall buoyancy, but 500 mb temperatures
will be around -9 to -11 deg C and most forecast sounding still show
1500+ J/kg of uninhibited MLCAPE this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer
shear will exists across the region as well. These conditions appear
supportive of marginally severe hail and gusty winds within the
stronger cores, which appear most probable along the east-central FL
Coast.

..Mosier/Halbert-K.. 11/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 20:03:04 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 112002
SWODY1
SPC AC 112000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado are forecast this afternoon and evening across
parts of eastern Illinois into Indiana, western/central Kentucky,
and middle Tennessee. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also
possible across the east-central Florida Peninsula.

...20Z Update...
A Slight Risk was introduced for parts of central/southern IN,
western KY, and far southeastern IL -- driven by 15-percent hail and
wind probabilities. As lower 50s dewpoints (along/ahead of the cold
front) continue spreading eastward beneath steepening midlevel lapse
rates, a corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE should support a gradual
increase in updraft intensity this afternoon into the evening. An
elongated hodograph (around 30-40 kt of effective shear) along with
increasing forcing for ascent should promote a mix of organized
clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable of producing
scattered severe hail (around 1-1.5 inches in diameter) and damaging
wind gusts. See MCD #2449 for more details.

..Weinman.. 11/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026/

...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley into Middle Tennessee...
Recent satellite imagery shows a lead shortwave trough moving into
northern IL, with another shortwave trough farther back northwest
moving into the Mid MO Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
near the lead shortwave. Thunderstorm intensity has decreased over
the last half hour or so as these storms move into an environment
with less elevated buoyancy (as observed by the 12Z ILX sounding).
The lead shortwave is forecast to continue eastward into the OH
Valley while the second shortwave continues more southeastward into
the Lower OH Valley vicinity. The surface low currently over the
IA/IL border vicinity is forecast to progress eastward with the lead
wave while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward through the
mid MS Valley/Mid-South, and lower OH Valley this afternoon and
evening.

Increasing low-level moisture is anticipated ahead of this front,
advecting northeastward into the region from the Ozarks/Mid-South
region. Recent surface analysis shows the mid 50s dewpoints are
still in northern AR, so there is some question as to how far
northeastward the greater low-level moisture will reach before
frontal passage. Current expectation is for the best overlap between
low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) with the stronger
large-scale ascent will occur across southern IN and adjacent
western KY. Here, the combination of weak buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE
around 500-800 J/kg) and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear
oriented largely orthogonal to the surface cold front should support
a mix of bowing clusters and supercells. Isolated hail and damaging
gusts will be the primary risks. Hail is more likely with any more
cellular activity and damaging gusts more likely with any
fast-moving bowing segments. Modestly enhanced low-level
shear may also support a low-probability tornado risk, but a
tendency for low-level flow to veer to westerly should reduce
effective SRH with time through the late afternoon/evening. The
isolated severe risk should diminish with eastward extent this
evening across the lower OH Valley as front outruns the low-level
moisture and daytime heating wanes.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
central/southern FL Peninsula this afternoon. Glancing large-scale
ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation over the
Southeast should aid this convective development. A warm layer
around 700 mb could limit overall buoyancy, but 500 mb temperatures
will be around -9 to -11 deg C and most forecast sounding still show
1500+ J/kg of uninhibited MLCAPE this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer
shear will exists across the region as well. These conditions appear
supportive of marginally severe hail and gusty winds within the
stronger cores, which appear most probable along the east-central FL
Coast.

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 12 00:43:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 120042
SWODY1
SPC AC 120040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small to marginally severe
hail, and perhaps locally gusty winds, may be maintained across
parts of west central into southeastern Kentucky and adjacent
northern Tennessee into at least late evening.

...01z Update...
Low-level moisture return to the warm sector of a modest (but
forecast to continue deepening) surface cyclone migrating through
the lower Ohio Valley has remained rather limited, at least where
forcing for ascent in the exit region of a 70-80+ kt cyclonic
mid-level jet has been sufficient to contribute to thunderstorm
development. With diurnal surface cooling now underway, it remains
unclear the extent to which mid-level cooling will maintain
sufficient destabilization to support a continuing risk for
marginally severe hail. However, despite a rapid transition to a
prominent westerly component to the flow from the surface through
around 850 mb, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests deeper
boundary-layer moistening is still possible into late evening along
the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level forcing overspreading
the south central into southeastern Kentucky/adjacent Tennessee
vicinity. If this occurs, thermodynamic profiles supportive of a
continuing risk for severe hail and locally gusty winds might be
maintained.

..Kerr.. 11/12/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 12 16:21:08 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 121620
SWODY1
SPC AC 121619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe
hail, a tornado or two, and perhaps damaging winds may impact parts
of the coastal Mid-Atlantic this afternoon.

...Eastern PA/NJ/Northern DE...
Latest surface analysis shows a developing surface low over northern
VA. This low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day and
track eastward across NJ as a potent shortwave trough moves into the
region. The zone near the surface low and extending eastward along
the surface warm front will be a focused region of ascent and
destabilization this afternoon, with forecast soundings showing
MLCAPE of 500-900 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and considerable
low-level shear/helicity profiles. A consensus of morning
HRRR/RRFS/REFS solutions show the development of isolated supercell
storms in this focused area. The risk area is quite small, but
given the consistent guidance have opted for a small SLGT risk to
cover the potential threats. Hail is probably the main concern with
any persistent supercell structure, but a tornado or two is also
possible. Refer to MCD #2451 for further details.

..Hart/Dean.. 11/12/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 12 20:02:12 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 122001
SWODY1
SPC AC 122000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail, a couple of
tornadoes, and perhaps damaging winds remain possible across parts
of southeastern Pennsylvania and southern/central New Jersey this
afternoon.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was trimming severe-thunderstorm probabilities across parts of eastern MD and DE, as the primary
severe risk will continue spreading northeastward from far
southeastern PA across southern/central NJ through the afternoon --
in tandem with the eastward-moving surface low. For details on the
near-term severe risk, see MCD #2452 and Tornado Watch #705.

..Weinman.. 11/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026/

...Eastern PA/NJ/Northern DE...
Latest surface analysis shows a developing surface low over northern
VA. This low is expected to deepen somewhat through the day and
track eastward across NJ as a potent shortwave trough moves into the
region. The zone near the surface low and extending eastward along
the surface warm front will be a focused region of ascent and
destabilization this afternoon, with forecast soundings showing
MLCAPE of 500-900 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and considerable
low-level shear/helicity profiles. A consensus of morning
HRRR/RRFS/REFS solutions show the development of isolated supercell
storms in this focused area. The risk area is quite small, but
given the consistent guidance have opted for a small SLGT risk to
cover the potential threats. Hail is probably the main concern with
any persistent supercell structure, but a tornado or two is also
possible. Refer to MCD #2451 for further details.

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 13 00:39:10 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 130038
SWODY1
SPC AC 130037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight into
early Friday.

...01z Update...

Severe probabilities have been removed from the Mid-Atlantic as
earlier strong/severe convection has weakened and moved offshore.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight/early Friday morning
near the southern CA coast as an upper shortwave trough shifts east
across the area. Generally modest low to mid-level flow and weak
instability will preclude severe thunderstorm potential with this
activity.

..Leitman.. 11/13/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 13 05:12:18 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 130511
SWODY1
SPC AC 130510

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough near the California coast this morning
will shift east toward the southern Rockies by Saturday morning.
Cooling aloft will support weak instability across portions of
southern AZ/NM to Far West TX. Boundary layer moisture is expected
to remain modest, with the dewpoints generally in the 40s and 50s F.
This will support scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across southern AZ/NM, spreading eastward toward southwest TX by
late afternoon/early evening. Southerly deep-layer flow is forecast,
with effective shear magnitudes generally around 20-25 kt. Modest
shear and instability will likely limit severe potential, though
gusty winds and small hail could occur with the strongest storms.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of coastal OR
into northern/central CA as a second upper shortwave trough moves
inland across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. A lightning
flash or two is possible during the nighttime hours from central CA
into the Great Basin, but overall coverage is expected to remain
less than 10 percent.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/13/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 13 12:51:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 131251
SWODY1
SPC AC 131249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.

...Southwest States including southern Arizona...
A southern-stream shortwave trough near the SoCal/northern Baja
coast will continue generally eastward along the international
border, while a more prominent upper trough amplifies a bit more
along the West Coast toward the Great Basin. Ahead of the southern
stream trough, isolated thunderstorm development will become more
probable by late morning into the afternoon across southern Arizona
as forcing for ascent overspreads a modestly moist/unstable boundary
layer.

A few stronger low-topped storms could develop/spread
north-northeastward into south-central/southeast Arizona by around mid-afternoon. Some small hail and/or gusty winds are plausible, but
current thinking is that organized severe thunderstorm potential
will be curbed by a trend of weakening low/mid-tropospheric flow
into this afternoon (effective shear 25 kt or less), along with the
relatively cool thermal profiles and perceived limitations on
downdraft intensity. A bit later in the day, a somewhat stronger
combination of deep-layer winds and lapse rates/buoyancy could also
contribute to some stronger storm potential toward the Rio Grande
River valley of southern New Mexico and far west Texas, but overall
severe potential should remain low.

Across northern California, while lightning flash potential will
likely remain limited, some convective enhancement to the
inland-spreading precipitation may influence some stronger
near-coastal wind gusts. Additional low-topped convection is
expected as lapse rates steepen within the post-frontal environment
later today for near-coastal areas and possibly parts of the
interior valley.

..Guyer/Mead.. 11/13/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 13 16:16:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 131616
SWODY1
SPC AC 131614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong shortwave trough is rotating across northwest Mexico. This
feature will affect southern AZ, providing increasing large scale
ascent and steep lapse rates through the afternoon and evening.
Visible satellite imagery suggests rather widespread cloud cover
will affect much of southern AZ, and low-level moisture is limited.
These factors should keep MLCAPE values below 500 J/kg. Winds aloft
are also relatively weak. While organized severe storms appear
unlikely today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will track
across the region, with some concern for a few strong wind gusts in
the more intense cells.

...Northern CA...
A strong cold front has moved inland across northern CA, with
intense low and mid level wind fields accompanying the front. No
lightning has been observed with the line thus far, and
thermodynamic profiles remain quite weak. Nevertheless, strong wind
gusts may accompany the shallow convective line, and even an orographically-induced brief tornado is possible - mainly through
mid afternoon.

..Hart/Halbert-E.. 11/13/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 13 19:56:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 131956
SWODY1
SPC AC 131954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and minimal changes were needed with
this update. For information regarding strong-storm potential in
northern CA and across parts of the Southwest, see the previous
discussion below.

..Weinman.. 11/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026/

...Southeast AZ...
A strong shortwave trough is rotating across northwest Mexico. This
feature will affect southern AZ, providing increasing large scale
ascent and steep lapse rates through the afternoon and evening.
Visible satellite imagery suggests rather widespread cloud cover
will affect much of southern AZ, and low-level moisture is limited.
These factors should keep MLCAPE values below 500 J/kg. Winds aloft
are also relatively weak. While organized severe storms appear
unlikely today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will track
across the region, with some concern for a few strong wind gusts in
the more intense cells.

...Northern CA...
A strong cold front has moved inland across northern CA, with
intense low and mid level wind fields accompanying the front. No
lightning has been observed with the line thus far, and
thermodynamic profiles remain quite weak. Nevertheless, strong wind
gusts may accompany the shallow convective line, and even an orographically-induced brief tornado is possible - mainly through
mid afternoon.

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Nov 14 00:37:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 140037
SWODY1
SPC AC 140035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
tonight.

...Synopsis...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
evening and into tonight from portions of the Four Corners to
southwest TX, and across parts of the northern CA and OR coasts.
Weak instability and increasing boundary-layer inhibition with loss
of daytime heating will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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