• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1524

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 30 17:36:15 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301736
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301735=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-301900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1524
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma and northern/western
    Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301735Z - 301900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts
    along with some severe hail with the strongest cells.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered convection is developing along the eastern
    periphery of a remnant west-east oriented outflow boundary draped
    across portions of east-central Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
    Clear skies ahead of the boundary this morning amid a rich low-level
    moisture environment has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE
    values approach 2500 J/kg. Weak flow aloft should limit storm
    organization, but some clustering of storms may occur with time
    during the afternoon as additional storms continue to develop
    along/near the boundary. Isolated damaging winds should be the
    primary threat, along with some potential for severe hail with the
    strongest cells.

    ..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bQ9OELgjNjTdM3MQcgR37ANb3NN0NdmY10jUgze_fOAuoF-u8iUAlOz08kSWXggDl5_m3lP1= iCoCeVYVg0CO6udOf4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34669677 35309540 35749409 36289308 36329221 35639183
    34849221 34149319 33869481 33999630 34309672 34669677=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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