ACUS01 KWNS 161936
SWODY1
SPC AC 161934

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 01/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/

...Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward,
with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and
Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold
and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm
potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170059
SWODY1
SPC AC 170057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. this evening or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the central U.S.
this evening and tonight, as mid-level flow remains cyclonic from
the southwest over much of the east-central U.S. At the surface, a
cold front will move the central Gulf Coast states and southern
Appalachians late this evening into tonight. Behind the front, a
large area of high pressure area will settle into the central U.S.
tonight, reinforcing cold and dry conditions over much of the
nation. For this reason, thunderstorms are not forecast across the
continental U.S. through tonight.

..Broyles.. 01/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170556
SWODY1
SPC AC 170554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A cyclonic flow pattern will remain over the U.S. today, as a
large-scale upper-level trough moves through the flow into the
southern Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
settle into the Great Plains. This airmass will reinforce cold and
dry conditions across much of the nation. Thunderstorms may occur
offshore from the central Gulf Coast or eastward off the coast of
south Florida. However, no thunderstorms are forecast across the
continental U.S. today or tonight.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171231
SWODY1
SPC AC 171230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will remain dominant over the central
and eastern CONUS through the period, with multiple embedded
mid-level shortwave troughs progressing over the southern/central
Plains, MS Valley/Midwest, and Southeast. At the surface, a cold
front will continue moving southeastward off the central Gulf Coast
today. Even with gradual low-level moisture return/airmass
modification forecast across parts of the southern FL Peninsula and
Keys, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm
potential ahead of the front through tonight.

..Gleason.. 01/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171602
SWODY1
SPC AC 171601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight
as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded
shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks
and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue
southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the
Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with
some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse
rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer.. 01/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171955
SWODY1
SPC AC 171953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 01/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/

...Discussion...
Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight
as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded
shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks
and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue
southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the
Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with
some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse
rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180057
SWODY1
SPC AC 180055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the central and
eastern U.S. this evening into tonight, as a shortwave mid-level
trough moves across the southern Plains. At the surface, a large
high pressure area will remain in place over the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. The pattern, along with a dry and cold airmass,
will limit thunderstorm potential across the nation through early
morning on Sunday.

..Broyles.. 01/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180559
SWODY1
SPC AC 180558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the east-central
U.S. today, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place over the
eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
settle in over the western and central Gulf Coast states, as a front
moves southward across the Florida Peninsula. Moisture advection
will take place ahead of the front in south Florida, where surface
dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In the early to mid
afternoon, thunderstorm development will be possible along and near
the front. Deep-layer and instability are expected to be
insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental
U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181254
SWODY1
SPC AC 181252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and
eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot
quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic
Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front
advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf
Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this
morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain
sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it
approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity),
especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers
aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface
dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south
FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability
should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas.
Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of
the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually
focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft
strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Gleason.. 01/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181616
SWODY1
SPC AC 181614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...Discussion including South Florida...
A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to
multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential
for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern
Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front,
somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air
mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the
thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will
particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and
the front progresses offshore.

..Guyer/Moore.. 01/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181949
SWODY1
SPC AC 181947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...20 Update...
The thunder area was removed from the southern Florida Peninsula as
activity has moved offshore. Thunder chances are expected to be less
than 10% across the CONUS through the end of the period.

..Thornton.. 01/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026/

...Discussion including South Florida...
A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to
multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential
for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern
Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front,
somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air
mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the
thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will
particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and
the front progresses offshore.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190056
SWODY1
SPC AC 190054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. this evening and
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the east-central
U.S. tonight, as a cyclonic flow pattern remains in place over much
of nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
located over the Great Plains and Southeast. This dry and cold
airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms today and
tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 01/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190559
SWODY1
SPC AC 190557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place
across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure
will remain over the Gulf Coast region, as another cold front
advances southeastward into the Southeast. Behind this front, a
large surface high will settle into the central states. This will
reinforce a cold and dry airmass, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and
tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191231
SWODY1
SPC AC 191230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
With large-scale upper troughing remaining dominant over the
central/eastern CONUS today, mostly offshore/continental low-level
trajectories will prove hostile to thunderstorms across the CONUS.

..Gleason.. 01/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191627
SWODY1
SPC AC 191625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western
Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be
hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS.

..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191926
SWODY1
SPC AC 191925

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
No changes.

..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/

...Discussion...
Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western
Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be
hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200055
SWODY1
SPC AC 200053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry
airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over
much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop
across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 01/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200549
SWODY1
SPC AC 200548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the
U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass
will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over
the continental U.S. today and tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201250
SWODY1
SPC AC 201248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over central/eastern
Canada and the CONUS today, expansive surface high pressure in place
across the MS/OH Valleys and eastern states will shift gradually
eastward as weak surface lee troughing/low development occurs across
the central High Plains. Modest low-level moisture will advance
slightly inland across parts of deep south into coastal/east TX, but instability is expected to remain too limited to support
thunderstorms through the end of the period.

..Gleason/Dean.. 01/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201555
SWODY1
SPC AC 201553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies
to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry
continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern
third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest
increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight.
However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support
thunderstorms through tonight.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201946
SWODY1
SPC AC 201944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 01/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/

...Discussion...
A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies
to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry
continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern
third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest
increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight.
However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support
thunderstorms through tonight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210056
SWODY1
SPC AC 210055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the
U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to
the Eastern Seaboard. A dry and cold airmass will remain over much
of the continental U.S. through tonight, making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorms.

..Broyles.. 01/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210550
SWODY1
SPC AC 210549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening.

...DISCUSSION...
A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the
U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the
south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today.
Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be
sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However,
no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211225
SWODY1
SPC AC 211224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today
across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface
cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the
central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the
base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage
showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas
through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to
support severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211618
SWODY1
SPC AC 211617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.

...ArkLaTex Region...
The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain
fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A
surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and
eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately
moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in
occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are
anticipated.

...South FL...
A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf
and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in
the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after
midnight.

..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211957
SWODY1
SPC AC 211956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 01/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/

...ArkLaTex Region...
The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain
fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A
surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and
eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately
moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in
occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are
anticipated.

...South FL...
A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf
and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in
the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after
midnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220049
SWODY1
SPC AC 220048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of far east Texas into
the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Additionally, a few
lightning strikes may be possible late tonight across southeast
Florida.

... 01Z Update...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States this
evening and tonight. A few lightning strikes may be possible across
a couple different areas.

... Far East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

A mid-level short-wave trough continues to through the larger-scale
eastern US trough. Modest low-level warm advection associated with
this short-wave trough will continue to support showers and a
lightning strike or two across the area tonight.

... Southeast Florida ...

A subtle short-wave trough and associated mid-level speed maximum
will move northeast from the Gulf across northern Florida within the subtropical jet. Modest large-scale ascent associated with the right
entrance region of this speed max may support showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two very late tonight.

..Marsh.. 01/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220540
SWODY1
SPC AC 220538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday, however, severe weather is not expected.

... Synopsis ...

A strong mid-level short-wave trough originating across the Canadian
Prairies will dig southeast toward the US Great Lakes on Thursday.
This will maintain broadly cyclonic flow across much of the United
States. In the wake of this trough, increasingly confluent mid-level
flow will maintain a strong arctic surface high as it begins to move
south into the Plains.

... Southeast Florida ...

Modest convergence along a remnant surface boundary may realize a
weakly unstable environment to support showers and perhaps a few
weak thunderstorms. Although the bulk of the activity should remain
offshore in the Atlantic, a couple of lightning strikes will be
possible across portions of far southeast Florida.

... Southern California ...

A vigorous closed low over the eastern Pacific will continue to dig
southeast, just off the California coast. The combination of modest
large-scale ascent downstream of the nose of a cyclonically curved
mid-level jet, cold mid-level temperatures, and onshore flow may
support a couple of lightning strikes within any orographically
enhanced shower. However confidence in this potential remains too
low to warrant graphical depiction at this time.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 01/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221232
SWODY1
SPC AC 221230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the
Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over
the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential
should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions.
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of
coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid
greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy.

An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop
south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern
CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE
and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should
remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of
thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA.

..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221557
SWODY1
SPC AC 221555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...SE FL...
A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL
coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along
this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses
across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe
storms are expected.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221954
SWODY1
SPC AC 221953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 01/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/

...SE FL...
A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL
coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along
this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses
across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe
storms are expected.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230044
SWODY1
SPC AC 230042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over
the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest
mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains
possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears
sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities.

Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and
stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential.
A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across
southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave
currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near
-20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC
time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on
this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial
moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms
can be supported.

..Moore.. 01/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230541
SWODY1
SPC AC 230539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across
northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper
low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the
surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with
modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain.
Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend
region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through
the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north
of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture.

...Big Bend Region to Central Texas...
Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of
the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by
evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front
across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the
front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms
may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will
quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the
boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day
in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support
effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a
combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2
to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for
storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the
potential for severe convection.

A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for
upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it
propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for
damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear
parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM
solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable
phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively
low probability scenario.

..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231238
SWODY1
SPC AC 231237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off
the northern Baja California coast, with a subtle lead shortwave
moving into northwest Mexico and modest shortwave ridging from
central Mexico into southeast AZ/southwest NM. Largely zonal flow
persists across much of the central and eastern CONUS.

Surface analysis reveals an expansive 1048 mb high extending from
the southern Canadian Prairies through the central Plains, mid MS
Valley, and much of the OH Valley. Very cold temperatures accompany
this high, and an intense cold front is currently pushing southward
across the TX Panhandle, northern OK, and northern AR. This same
front is pushing southeastward across the middle OH Valley.

...Big Bend Region into North/Central Texas...
Some modest low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the
cold front from the TX Coastal Plain into the TX Hill Country. This
advection is forecast to continue throughout the day, likely
bringing upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints as far northwest as the Edwards
Plateau before interacting with the front this afternoon. Heating
will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates
will be poor. Even so, the anticipated low-level moisture coupled
with cold mid-level temperatures should result in a relatively
confined area of moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg)
tonight. Additionally, deep-layer vertical shear will be strong,
resulting in environmental conditions that could support a
strong/marginally severe storm or two. However, the overall threat
will be mitigated by the undercutting nature of the cold front and
likely storm interactions. The limited duration and isolated nature
of the severe threat currently precludes the need for probabilities.

Farther north and west, a large area of precipitation is expected to
develop behind the front, supported by the strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft and associated broad isentropic ascent.
Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in minimal buoyancy
(mostly after 03Z), with a few deeper convective elements within the precipitation shield capable of producing lightning amid freezing
rain and/or sleet.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231600
SWODY1
SPC AC 231558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains
this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across
much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional
thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern
OK where freezing p-types are anticipated.

Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a
moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions
suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front -
mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot
be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit
the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.

..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231937
SWODY1
SPC AC 231935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 01/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains
this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across
much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional
thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern
OK where freezing p-types are anticipated.

Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a
moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions
suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front -
mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot
be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit
the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240038
SWODY1
SPC AC 240037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...01z Update...

Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the
southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the
polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA.
This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region
later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for
elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance
continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the
front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not
particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is
expected to remain weak.

..Darrow.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240524
SWODY1
SPC AC 240522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the
central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of
the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response
to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar
front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across
southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model
guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern
Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately
for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of
the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least
slightly elevated in nature.

Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust
thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will
surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern
for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the
coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears
too low to warrant a MRGL Risk.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241245
SWODY1
SPC AC 241243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley/Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just
off the coast of the central Baja Peninsula. Deep southwesterly flow
aloft extends northeastward from this low across Mexico and the
southern Plains before joining the more confluent, single-stream southwesterlies in place from the MS Valley eastward.

A subtle shortwave trough is currently progressing northeastward
across central TX within the belt of stronger flow preceding the
upper low, contributing to some deeper convective cores over the
region. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue northeastward,
resulting in an expansion of precipitation downstream. Forecast
soundings do show some minimal buoyancy, supporting the potential
for some deeper convective cores capable of lightning. Highest
thunderstorm chances will be concentrated across southern LA, but
low probabilities also exist farther north where low-level profiles
will be cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet.

The Baja upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the
day, moving across central Mexico and reaching central TX by early
tomorrow morning. Evolution of this low will encourage northeastward progression of a surface low along the surging arctic cold front.
This will take the low from its current location over deep south TX
quickly northeastward over the northwest Gulf basin, across southern
LA and to the central AL/MS border vicinity. Strong low-level
southerly flow is anticipated ahead of the upper low and associated
surface low as well, with this overall evolution contributing to
rapid airmass modification from the central Gulf Coast into central
AL and MS. Even with this modification, most forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that does not recover adequately for
surface-based convection.

General expectation is for ascent attendant to this system to
support another round of precipitation beginning over east TX after
06Z before expanding northeastward with time. Some very modest
buoyancy is possible atop a strong warm noise, with isolated
elevated thunderstorms possible. This thunder potential includes
areas from east TX across northern/central LA into northern MS where
surface temperatures will be below freezing, suggesting some
lightning is possible with mixed winter precipitation.

...Southwest...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress cyclonically from central
CA into AZ during the period. Cold mid-level temperatures combined
with ascent from the shortwave will support the potential for a few
isolated thunderstorms across central and southeast AZ and southwest
NM from the late afternoon through tonight.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241543
SWODY1
SPC AC 241542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.

..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241957
SWODY1
SPC AC 241956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on
current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected
precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As
previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is
possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and
western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer
to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this
occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe
probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information.

..Wendt.. 01/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/

...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250051
SWODY1
SPC AC 250049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Southern-stream upper low is beginning to eject across northern
Mexico. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well and
scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of the primary midlevel
vort just south of the international border. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted north of the border across southeast AZ, but this activity
should gradually weaken over the next few hours. However, stronger
forcing is expected to aid elevated convection that will spread
across portions of far West TX this evening and thunderstorm
probabilities will reflect this risk through at least 06z tonight.
Downstream, warm advection will continue to be the primary mechanism
for more sporadic thunderstorms atop the cooler polar air mass.
Additionally, boundary layer destabilization will be retarded across
the lower MS Valley through 12z, and for this reason robust
thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Darrow.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250527
SWODY1
SPC AC 250526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...01z Update...

Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z.
Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and
a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the
Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern
LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance
suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the
surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly
100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where
surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer
shear, convection that develops within this environment would have
some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these
reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251247
SWODY1
SPC AC 251245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Portions of the Southeast States...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave
trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more
single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface
analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the
central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low
southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf.
Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system
that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS.

Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an
extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX
into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as
either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying
this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends
from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL
Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change
throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further
modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the
advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold
front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the
maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins
to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical
shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts.

Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk
concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into
southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best
thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast.
Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this
area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring
brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more
discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the
line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time
due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to
limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251605
SWODY1
SPC AC 251603

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the
main concerns.

...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.

..Hart/Bentley.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251955
SWODY1
SPC AC 251953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon, with damaging gusts and a few tornadoes
possible mainly across southern Georgia and northern Florida.

...20z Update...
A northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-linear band of convection with
embedded bows and occasional transient circulations continues to
progress eastward at mid-afternoon across southwest Georgia, extreme
southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Scenario will remain
favorable, particularly over the next several hours (through late
afternoon) for damaging winds and a tornado risk across
southwest/toward south-central Georgia as well as nearby north
Florida, especially near a surface wave and along/south of a
northward-shifting warm front. Latest WSR-88D VWP data from
Tallahassee continues to imply 250+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH, while
middle/upper 60s F surface dewpoints, with a few 70F observations,
are becoming more common within the inland-expanding warm sector.

..Guyer.. 01/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026/

...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260029
SWODY1
SPC AC 260028

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong 500mb speed max is translating across WV early this evening.
As a result, primary corridor of warm advection is now focusing
across the Middle Atlantic/southern New England where negligible
buoyancy is noted. Deep convection has been confined to the trailing
cold front across portions of the Southeast, and lightning with this
activity has been decreasing over the last few hours. While 00z
sounding from JAX exhibits around 300 J/kg MLCAPE, low-level
convergence will gradually focus off the Atlantic coast later this
evening as the front surges across this region. Given the limited
instability, and the primary focus for ascent well north of this
region, severe probabilities appear low the rest of tonight.

..Darrow.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260518
SWODY1
SPC AC 260517

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Discussion...

Dominant polar air mass will build southeast across lower latitudes
which will force a cold front off the southern FL Peninsula later
this afternoon. Poor lapse rates and weak large-scale forcing do not
favor deep convection capable of generating lightning. Thunderstorm probabilities remain too low to warrant an outlook this period.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261246
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis centers an expansive 1040 mb high over OK.
Cold and stable airmass and offshore trajectories associated with
this high will preclude thunderstorm development across much of the
central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is along and ahead of
a decaying cold front as it moves through central and southern FL.
Regional radar imagery currently shows some deeper convection just
ahead of this front over central FL, where the dewpoints are in the
70s. However, even with this low-level moisture in place, more than
isolated deep convection appears unlikely due to warm mid-level
temperatures and associated poor lapse rates. A few deeper updrafts
capable of lightning could still occur briefly, particularly on the
southeast FL Coast where high temperatures will reach the low 80s,
but overall lightning coverage is still expected to be less than 10
percent.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261552
SWODY1
SPC AC 261550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion including South Florida...
Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some
late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance
of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and
cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the
Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the
Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak,
and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer
warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few
lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast
Florida Peninsula through afternoon.

..Guyer/Barnes.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261939
SWODY1
SPC AC 261938

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected.

...Discussion...
Occasional lightning occurred earlier today near the Florida coast
with a weak line of storms that developed along the cold front. This
convective line has weakened/moved far enough offshore to bring an
end to any thunder potential across Florida. A dry,
continental-polar airmass, which has now become established across
much of the CONUS, will continue to limit any thunderstorm
potential.

..Bentley.. 01/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/

...Discussion including South Florida...
Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some
late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance
of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and
cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the
Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the
Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak,
and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer
warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few
lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast
Florida Peninsula through afternoon.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270011
SWODY1
SPC AC 270009

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface front has surged off the southern FL Peninsula and stable
conditions are noted across the CONUS.

..Darrow.. 01/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270515
SWODY1
SPC AC 270513

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely today.

Generally cold and stable conditions exist across most of the CONUS,
thus the risk for thunderstorms is very low.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271244
SWODY1
SPC AC 271242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis...
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today
within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and
eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward
across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong
shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This
evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.

Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and
cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore
trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection
today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific
Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be
too shallow to produce lightning.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271602
SWODY1
SPC AC 271600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271944
SWODY1
SPC AC 271942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280032
SWODY1
SPC AC 280030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur through tonight across parts of
northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will quickly move across northern CA and parts of
the Pacific Northwest through tonight, with a weakening trend.
Despite this, increasing lift, cooling aloft and a midlevel moist
plume may support weak SBCAPE near the coast and elevated
instability inland. The weak instability and minimal wind speeds
below 700 mb should preclude any severe risk.

Elsewhere, cool and stable conditions will prevail with an expansive
upper trough east of the Rockies and high pressure.

..Jewell.. 01/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280530
SWODY1
SPC AC 280528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.

...Synopsis...
A relatively stable pattern will exist across the CONUS today, with
high pressure affecting most areas. A deep upper low will remain
over Ontario, with broad cyclonic flow aloft encompassing most of
eastern Canada and the USA. With high pressure over land, offshore
flow will keep appreciable low-level moisture well offshore from
Cuba toward the Turks and Caicos.

Precipitation will be possible in association with a shortwave
trough moving across the Great Basin during the day and across the
central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is
forecast, and as such thunderstorms appear unlikely.

..Jewell.. 01/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281237
SWODY1
SPC AC 281236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
within in the cyclonic flow covering the central and eastern CONUS.
The southernmost shortwave is currently progressing southeastward
into the Lower MS Valley, with this southeastward motion expected to
persist throughout the day. This evolution takes the wave across the north-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon/evening, and across FL
by early tomorrow morning. The northern shortwave is moving
southeastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and continued
southeastward progress will take this wave through the middle/upper
OH Valley and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Dry and
stable conditions associated with an arctic airmass will be in place
ahead of these shortwaves, limiting low-level moisture and
precluding thunderstorm development.

Another shortwave trough is currently moving eastward across the
interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. This eastward/southeastward progression should continue, taking the wave
through the northern/central Rockies and into the central Plains
while also dampening the shortwave ridging proceeding it.
Precipitation will be possible in association with this shortwave
during the day and across the central and northern Rockies. However,
little to no instability is forecast, and thunderstorms appear
unlikely.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281601
SWODY1
SPC AC 281600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Longwave upper troughing with multiple embedded mid-level
perturbations over the eastern CONUS and Canada will maintain
surface high pressure and offshore/continental low-level
trajectories across the Southeast through tonight. A separate
shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward over the Great
Basin and northern/central Rockies/Plains today. Negligible
instability across all these regions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 01/28/2026

$$

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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 281921
SWODY1
SPC AC 281920

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Longwave upper troughing with multiple embedded mid-level
perturbations over the eastern CONUS and Canada will maintain
surface high pressure and offshore/continental low-level
trajectories across the Southeast through tonight. A separate
shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward over the Great
Basin and northern/central Rockies/Plains today. Negligible
instability across all these regions will preclude thunderstorms.

$$

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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 290048
SWODY1
SPC AC 290047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Discussion...
The prevalence of cold/continental trajectories, especially east of
the Rockies, will preclude thunderstorm development through tonight.

..Guyer.. 01/29/2026

$$

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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 290543
SWODY1
SPC AC 290541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with
virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist
east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories
prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain
West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific
Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is
likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast thermodynamic profiles.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026

$$

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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 291239
SWODY1
SPC AC 291238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is currently in place across much of the
central and eastern CONUS, anchored by an expansive upper low
centered over central Ontario. Early-morning satellite imagery shows
a pair of shortwave troughs within the western periphery of this
cyclonic flow, with the lead wave entering the TX Panhandle and OK
and the second wave moving through western WY. Both of these
shortwaves are forecast to move southeastward throughout the day,
while another notably strong shortwave drops southward into the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest early tomorrow. Evolution of these
waves will reinforcing the cold, dry, and stable airmass already in
place, and no thunderstorms are expected.

Upper ridging is expected to build across much of the western CONUS/Intermountain West today. As it does, a pair of shortwave
troughs are forecast to move through British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest. Showers with embedded convective elements will
accompany each of these waves, but any convection should be too
shallow for lightning production.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/29/2026

$$

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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 291602
SWODY1
SPC AC 291600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while
broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern
CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude
thunderstorms through tonight.

..Gleason.. 01/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 291932
SWODY1
SPC AC 291930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while
broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern
CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude
thunderstorms through tonight.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 300045
SWODY1
SPC AC 300043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Discussion...
The general prevalence of cold/stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorm development across the CONUS through tonight.

..Guyer.. 01/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 300543
SWODY1
SPC AC 300541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain steadfast east of the Rockies, with
upper ridging prevalent over much of the West aside from a few
ridge-riding shortwave troughs over the Pacific Northwest and
Canadian Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis is expected late tonight off
the coastal south Atlantic, with the expectation that convection
will also increase offshore in vicinity of the Gulf Stream overnight
through early Saturday morning. However, it appears that lightning
flash potential will remain limited (less than 10 percent) for the
near-coastal areas of the Carolinas.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 01/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 301158
SWODY1
SPC AC 301156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A large-scale trough will consolidate/amplify over the eastern half
of the CONUS through the period. In response, a surface cyclone will
evolve northeastward along the Gulf Stream -- remaining offshore of
the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms accompanying the surface cyclone
should also remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 01/30/2026

$$

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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 301601
SWODY1
SPC AC 301600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern
CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while
remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated
with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain
offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread
parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While
showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland,
negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 301935
SWODY1
SPC AC 301934

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 01/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern
CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while
remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated
with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain
offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread
parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While
showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland,
negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

$$

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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 310040
SWODY1
SPC AC 310039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions remain prevalent across the CONUS based on
latest surface observations and recent 00z RAOBs, and will preclude thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected overnight well east of the Carolina coast as a cyclone
continues to intensify, but these are not expected to impact land.

..Moore.. 01/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 310526
SWODY1
SPC AC 310525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Long-wave troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS as an
embedded shortwave trough steadily intensifies off the East Coast.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely off the GA/Carolina
coast as an attendant surface cyclone intensifies; however, the warm
sector of the low will remain well offshore, precluding the
potential for thunderstorms over land. Elsewhere, seasonally cool
conditions across the central CONUS and upper ridging over the West
will further nullify thunderstorm development.

..Moore/Wendt.. 01/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 311220
SWODY1
SPC AC 311219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through
tonight.

Another quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today,
with no thunderstorms anticipated. A deepening surface cyclone off
the Carolina/Georgia coast will aid in the development of
thunderstorms offshore, but that activity is not expected to affect
inland areas.

..Hart.. 01/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 311602
SWODY1
SPC AC 311600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this
morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western
Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over
the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the
period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain
offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level
temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late
tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast
soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to
lightning-producing convection.

..Gleason/Supinie.. 01/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 311950
SWODY1
SPC AC 311948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.

..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this
morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western
Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over
the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the
period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain
offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level
temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late
tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast
soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to
lightning-producing convection.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 010048
SWODY1
SPC AC 010047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing off the Southeast
Coast as a cyclone intensifies with the approach of an upper wave;
however, this activity will remain well off the coast and will not
impact land. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible off
the WA coast through early morning, but lightning potential over
land appears limited based on regional 00z RAOBs and forecast
soundings. Elsewhere cold/stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorm potential.

..Moore.. 02/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 010539
SWODY1
SPC AC 010538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
The ongoing synoptic regime remains unfavorable for thunderstorm
development across the country. Offshore flow into the Gulf and off
the Southeast coast is evident in surface observations and IR
imagery, and should become more prevalent through the day as a
surface cyclone intensifies and accelerates northeast towards the
Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is beginning to build
across the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley in the wake of the
recent cold frontal intrusion, which will maintain dry and cool
conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Across the West,
upper ridging and very dry conditions below 500 mb will continue to
limit thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two appears
possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest as a weak upper
disturbance moves onshore, but lightning coverage will likely remain
below 10% based on latest guidance and forecast soundings.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 011240
SWODY1
SPC AC 011238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

An upper trough will rotate inland across the WA/OR Cascades this
afternoon, accompanied by cold temperatures aloft and strong onshore
flow. Scattered showers are expected across western WA, where very
weak CAPE will develop. While the risk of thunderstorms is low, an
isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out.

Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
across the CONUS today.

..Hart/Broyles.. 02/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 011602
SWODY1
SPC AC 011600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.

..Gleason.. 02/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 011958
SWODY1
SPC AC 011957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 02/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 020043
SWODY1
SPC AC 020042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Cool, dry, and stable conditions are noted across the country this
evening per 00z RAOBs. With a synoptic regime in place that is
unfavorable for destabilization, thunderstorm potential appears
minimal. One exception to this is along/west of the Cascades in the
Pacific Northwest where occasional lightning flashes have been
observed in recent hours. Regional 00z soundings did sample weak
buoyancy, but this will quickly diminish in the coming hours with
the onset of nocturnal cooling. As such, any additional lightning
potential is expected to be short-lived and should wane rapidly
through the late evening.

..Moore.. 02/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 020545
SWODY1
SPC AC 020544

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Cool and stable conditions will persist across much of the country
for today and will limit thunderstorm potential. Modest moisture is
expected late tonight into eastern TX as a surface high gradually
shifts east and supports onshore trajectories out of the
northwestern Gulf. A cold front pushing south across the Plains
overnight will begin to impinge on this returning moisture across
the Texarkana region between 09-12 UTC Tuesday morning. While
shallow convective showers appear probable, consensus among forecast
guidance is that warm mid-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm
potential until more substantial cooling aloft occurs (which will
most likely occur after 12 UTC Tuesday).

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 021228
SWODY1
SPC AC 021226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through
tonight.

Dry and stable conditions across the CONUS will preclude
thunderstorm activity today and tonight.

..Hart.. 02/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 021531
SWODY1
SPC AC 021530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while
multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across
the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture
will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the
ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 02/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 021932
SWODY1
SPC AC 021930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Gleason.. 02/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while
multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across
the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture
will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the
ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 030042
SWODY1
SPC AC 030040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Mid-evening satellite imagery depicts a weak mid-level impulse
moving across TX with modest moisture return ongoing into central
TX. A cold front is noted in surface observations advancing
south/southeastward across the Plains. This feature should impinge
on the returning moisture across the Texarkana region between 9-12
UTC, and will promote a gradual increase in shallow convective
showers. However, warm mid-level temperatures will prevent deep convection/thunderstorm development prior to 12 UTC. Elsewhere, cool
and dry conditions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Moore.. 02/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 030544
SWODY1
SPC AC 030542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
05 UTC surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing
along the TX Gulf Coast into eastern TX as a surface low gradually
intensifies across northwest TX. Further north, a cold front
continues to advance southward into the southern Plains. A
combination of isentropic ascent preceding the front and more
focused lift along the front will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development by early afternoon from eastern TX into the
lower MS River Valley and possibly into parts of the TN Valley as
the front pushes southeast towards the Gulf.

Although dewpoints will likely increase to the upper 50s and low 60s
by late afternoon, warm mid-level temperatures observed in 00 UTC
soundings will yield modest buoyancy profiles characterized by
lifted indices between -1 to -3 C. Consequently, this will limit
updraft intensities and the overall potential for severe convection.
Latest CAM guidance, including the typically aggressive REFS,
support this idea and depict very weak signals for strong updrafts.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031237
SWODY1
SPC AC 031235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Northwest Gulf Coast into the Ark-La-Miss...
The low-level airmass over this region is continuing to slowly
modify after a previous arctic intrusion into the Gulf basin. Only
limited diurnal destabilization (i.e., mainly 50s surface dewpoints
yielding weak CAPE) is expected within a warm conveyor extending
across the central Gulf Coast states eastward into the southern
Appalachians. A mid-level trough will approach the region and aid
in pushing a cold front southeast. Forecast soundings suggest weak,
isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over east TX and
the Ark-La-Tex before shifting east-southeast across the lower MS
Valley later this evening into tonight.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031616
SWODY1
SPC AC 031615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of
a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale
deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of
several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and
southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these
waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,
with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take
this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians
today.

A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level
moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into
central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the
shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes
southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. However,
much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous
frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from
the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.
This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX
Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly
moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.
However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the
overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,
occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated
lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the
highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear
will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by
weak buoyancy.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031943
SWODY1
SPC AC 031941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...20z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to bring the thunder line further north
into Middle Tennessee to account for trends over the last couple of
hours. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 02/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of
a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale
deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of
several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and
southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these
waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,
with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take
this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians
today.

A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level
moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into
central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the
shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes
southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. However,
much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous
frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from
the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.
This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX
Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly
moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.
However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the
overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,
occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated
lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the
highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear
will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by
weak buoyancy.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 040046
SWODY1
SPC AC 040045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front is evident in 00 UTC surface observations
extending from Middle TN southwestward to the TX Coastal Plain with thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southeast TX into western
LA. This activity is expected to spread southeastward into the
northwestern Gulf through 12 UTC in tandem with the surface front. A
recent 00 UTC sounding from CRP sampled around 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but
the onset of nocturnal cooling should begin to modulate buoyancy
heading into the late evening/overnight hours. While forcing along
the front will continue to support convection, thunderstorm
intensity will likely continue to wane and limit the potential for
organized convection given the deteriorating thermodynamic
conditions.

..Moore.. 02/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 040548
SWODY1
SPC AC 040546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening surface observations show a cold front advancing south
into the northwestern Gulf/lower MS River Valley. This feature is
expected to continue southeastward over the next 24 hours amid
building high pressure across the central CONUS. Despite seasonal
moisture in place along the Gulf Coast, warm mid-level
temperatures/poor lapse rates will largely limit much appreciable
buoyancy. However, forecast soundings suggest sufficient MUCAPE for
isolated thunderstorms may develop within the pre-frontal air mass
by late morning/early afternoon across the northern Gulf into parts
of southern AL and the FL Panhandle. Given the poor thermodynamic
environment, severe/organized convection is not expected, and any
appreciable lightning threat to land should diminish after 00 UTC.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041235
SWODY1
SPC AC 041234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Morning surface analysis places a cold front pushing southeast
across the northeast Gulf Coast southwestward through the Gulf of
America. As an upper trough over the lower MO Valley/southern Great
Plains pivots southeast into the central Gulf Coast, it will drive
the front into central portions of the FL Peninsula late tonight.
Scant buoyancy mainly over the FL Panhandle vicinity this morning
may yield a few weak thunderstorms before this activity diminishes
as it moves east into a more stable airmass. Elsewhere, quiescent
conditions for thunderstorms will prevail.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041630
SWODY1
SPC AC 041629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave
is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the
western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that
covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the
eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the
western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.

Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in
northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern
SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the
aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front
is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of
the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates,
which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for
the remainder of the period.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041951
SWODY1
SPC AC 041949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 02/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave
is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the
western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that
covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the
eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the
western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.

Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in
northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern
SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the
aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front
is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of
the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates,
which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for
the remainder of the period.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 050033
SWODY1
SPC AC 050032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent tonight.

...01Z Update...
Larger-scale mid-level troughing may take on a bit less of a
positive tilt while approaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard later
tonight, as the most vigorous embedded short wave perturbation
begins to pivot eastward after digging into the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity. However, colder mid-level temperatures are forecast
to continue to lag to the northwest and west of the associated
surface cold front, which may overspread much of northern Florida
and the west central peninsula by 12Z Thursday. Forecast soundings
suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric moistening and forcing for
large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front may contribute to a
layer of weak destabilization supportive of heavier showers into and
across the Greater Tampa vicinity, and perhaps much of the I-4
corridor, late tonight. However, given relatively warm equilibrium
(and likely cloud top) temperatures, the potential for lightning
appears low.

..Kerr.. 02/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 050506
SWODY1
SPC AC 050504

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a significant, progressive short wave trough, models
indicate that an initially vigorous perturbation across the southern mid-latitude Pacific will be forced northeastward/eastward toward
the North American Pacific coast today through tonight. As it
approaches a prominent mid/upper high which has evolved inland of
the U.S coast, it is forecast to split, with one of the emerging
perturbations accelerating toward the British Columbia coast while
the other digs toward the southern California coast. Downstream of
the latter impulse, broader weak troughing initially offshore of
southern California and Baja is forecast to slowly accelerate north/northeastward inland of coastal areas.

While models indicate that the blocking ridge will probably undergo
notable weakening today through tonight, it appears that amplified
ridging will generally be maintained across the Canadian/U.S.
Rockies, with another significant short wave trough of Arctic
origins digging downstream, across the southwestern Hudson Bay
vicinity. It appears that this will be accompanied by a deepening
surface cyclone, with a trailing cold front advancing across the
international border into portions of the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region by late tonight.

This is likely to occur coincident with strong downstream surface
cyclogenesis, offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard through the
southern mid-latitude western Atlantic, trailed by a cold front
advancing south of the Florida peninsula through the Bahamas and
western Caribbean.

...Florida...
Inland of the Gulf coast, across the remainder of the central and
southern peninsula, with the mid-level cold core continuing to trail
to the northwest of the surface cold front, and mid/upper support
for ascent perhaps weakening ahead of the front, forecast soundings
indicate minimal potential for pre-frontal thunderstorm development
today.

...Southwest...
Model forecast soundings, particularly the Rapid Refresh, suggest
that steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and moisture
return from the subtropical eastern Pacific, may lead to the
development of weak conditional instability across parts of southern
California through the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley by late
tonight. However, this may mostly occur in the wake of an initial
short wave impulse overspreading the region, with little potential
for thunderstorm activity through 12Z Friday.

..Kerr.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051217
SWODY1
SPC AC 051215

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough
progressing east across the Southeast while a ridge resides over the
Interior West. A cold front will continue to push southeast across
the FL Peninsula today with cool/stable conditions accompanying high
pressure across the Southeast. Tranquil conditions will prevail
across the Lower 48 states.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051622
SWODY1
SPC AC 051621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper
pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS
Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British
Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough
currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into
the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave
is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold
front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This
surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the
western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the
cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest
low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but
tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any
buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051920
SWODY1
SPC AC 051918

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
across the CONUS today.

..Hart.. 02/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper
pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS
Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British
Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough
currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into
the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave
is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold
front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This
surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the
western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the
cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest
low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but
tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any
buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060045
SWODY1
SPC AC 060043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Southwest...
A short wave trough approaching a blocking mid-level ridge centered
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to split, with one
emerging perturbation now digging toward southern California and
Baja, where weak larger-scale preceding troughing is already slowly accelerating north/northeastward, inland across coastal areas. As
this continues tonight, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture of
sub-tropical eastern Pacific origin is forecast to continue to
advect northward across portions of southern California through the
Mojave Desert and lower Colorado Valley. Coincident with steepening
lapse rates aided by mid-level cooling, Rapid Refresh and NAM
forecast soundings continue to indicate layers of weak conditional
instability developing across the region overnight. The evolution
of profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning
remains a bit unclear, but still seems generally low through at
least 12Z Friday..

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060506
SWODY1
SPC AC 060505

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities will remain generally near or below 10
percent across the U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
While a blocking high centered inland of the U.S. Pacific coast
becomes increasingly suppressed, it appears that large-scale ridging
will be maintained across the Pacific coast through the Canadian
Prairies and U.S. Great Plains. Some expansion east of the Canadian
Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains is possible, but a vigorous
short wave trough of Arctic origins likely will reinforce amplified larger-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Atlantic
Seaboard, as it digs south-southeast of the Great Lakes through Mid
Atlantic region today through tonight. Beneath a confluent
mid-level regime in the wake of this feature, cold surface ridging
is forecast to build across the Mississippi Valley through
Appalachians vicinity, with the leading edge of the reinforcing cold
intrusion advancing as far south as the Florida peninsula and
northeastern Gulf Basin through central Texas by 12Z Saturday.

Near and inland of the southern California through Baja coast, broad
weak mid-level troughing is forecast to linger and become reinforced
by a digging short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream
southern mid-latitude Pacific. Models indicate that this may
include the evolution of a notable mid-level low, which probably
will remain offshore of the southern California and northern Baja
coast through this period.

...Southwest...
Models suggest that modest moisture return off the subtropical
eastern Pacific, coincident with steepening lapse rates aided by
mid-level cooling, will contribute to weak destabilization across
parts of California into the Great Basin today through tonight.
With the evolving low and associated coldest mid-level temperatures
forecast to remain offshore, forcing to support convective
development inland remains unclear. Spread among the model output
adds to the uncertainty.

Orographic forcing might contribute to potential for thunderstorm
development with sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, and
there appears a consensus among the various ensemble calibrated
thunderstorm guidance for minimum threshold thunderstorm
probabilities across at least western portions of the Transverse
Ranges of southern California. Eastward into the San Gabriel
Mountains, and northward into portions of the southern Sierra
Nevada, thunderstorm probabilities appear a bit less at this time.

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061225
SWODY1
SPC AC 061224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid- to upper-level low located to the west of Point Conception
along the southern CA coast will move southeastward during the
period to the west of northern Baja California. A mid-level ridge
will influence conditions farther east across the Rockies while a
deep trough resides along the Atlantic coast. Cool/stable
conditions will prevail from the MS Valley eastward to the Atlantic
coast while mostly dry and tranquil weather will occur across the
Lower 48. A few showers and perhaps a couple of deeper convective
towers may result in a few lightning flashes over the higher terrain
east of Point Conception in southern CA.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061617
SWODY1
SPC AC 061616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is
expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today,
ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of
the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low-
to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of
this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support
scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern
CA.

Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and
central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along
the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will
prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep
upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the
western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded
within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/06/2026

$$

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