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  • MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 5 03:53:16 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 050353
    FFGMPD
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-050900-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1556
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1051 PM EST Wed Nov 04 2026

    Areas affected...southern Appalachians

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 050350Z - 050900Z

    Summary...Training potential of heavy rainfall within or just
    outside of the southern Appalachians will continue for another 3-5
    hours. Peak hourly rainfall over 2 inches will be possible along
    with additional totals of 2 to 4+ inches.

    Discussion...Radar imagery from 0315Z showed a band of training
    thunderstorms over northern GA, impacting Murray, Gilmer and
    Fannin counties. Several local Wunderground-sourced weather
    stations have shown hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches within this
    training axis along with rainfall totals of 6-10 inches since
    midnight, with much of this falling within the past 2-3 hours. SPC
    mesoanalysis data and the 00Z FFC sounding showed a moist and
    unstable environment across the region with PWs of 1.6-1.8 inches
    and MLCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg. Low level winds were 20-30 kt as
    seen in the 925-850 mb layer, oriented from the SSW to SSE from
    northwestern GA into upstate SC, a favorable orientation with
    respect to the terrain of the southern Appalachians and a subtle
    effective stationary front extending from northern GA into the
    Carolinas.

    Short term forecasts from the RAP showed slow eastward progress
    overnight of a cold front extending from middle TN down through
    southwestern AL, which should allow for an extended period of
    northward moisture transport into the southern Appalachians.
    However, RAP guidance also shows veering of the low level flow
    through 09Z as the leading edge of broad upper troughing pushes
    east overnight. Instability is forecast to lower through the
    overnight but remain sufficient to support heavy rain. The veering
    flow may bring an end to the training potential later tonight but
    until then, potential will remain for training and hourly rainfall
    of 2+ inches with some eastward extension of the flash flood
    threat into upstate SC and southwestern NC as moisture/instability
    advects into the region over the next few hours. Areas of flash
    flooding will be possible through 09Z with the greatest impacts
    across urban areas, typical flood prone locations within areas of
    terrain or those with poor drainage.

    Otto

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!87DKfLVgHQD8q04C2rmjPwm6DSTMlPCvGTdg7OY48bWJyd3qAW3LWt6hZligJXLavsuR7ETCX_95W0dizOSkiOx4Kv8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...

    ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

    LAT...LON 35878226 35538175 34678213 33938389 33958495
    34338519 34918461 35668305
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 10:29:00 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 061028
    FFGMPD
    MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-061600-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1557
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    527 AM EST Fri Nov 06 2026

    Areas affected...portions of northern Mid-Atlantic coast to
    southern New England

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 061026Z - 061600Z

    Summary...Localized and mainly urban flash flooding will be
    possible through 16Z across portions of northern Mid-Atlantic to
    southern New England. High short-term rainfall of about 0.5 to 1.0
    inches in 15 minutes and storm total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
    (locally higher) are expected.

    Discussion...Radar imagery from 10Z showed an expanding region of
    showers and thunderstorms extending from northeastern MD into
    southern NJ, located ahead of a low to mid-level vorticity max
    observed just south of Washington D.C. Another region of storms
    was located over south-central to southeastern VA, associated with
    another low to mid-level vorticity max over the central VA/NC
    border. Both vorticity maxima were tracking to the northeast,
    ahead of an approaching closed low/trough over the Great
    Lakes/Ohio Valley within a modestly diffluent/divergent jet
    pattern aloft. Observed gauges showed approximately 0.5 to 1.0
    inches of rain in 15 minutes associated with stronger
    thunderstorms in Montgomery County, MD and near Petersburg, VA
    over the past 1-2 hours. The environment ahead of an approaching
    cold front contained 500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 1.3 to 1.7 inch PWs
    and effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt (via the 10Z SPC
    mesoanalysis).

    As the vorticity maxima continue to track northeastward through
    16Z, recent RAP forecasts show an increase through late morning of
    the 850 mb flow of 5 to 10 kt above their present speeds of 25-30
    kt from southeastern VA to central NJ. Coverage of
    showers/thunderstorms should increase this morning ahead of the
    two vorticity maxima within the very moist and unstable
    environment, ahead of an approaching cold front to the west.
    Unidirectional flow from the southwest could promote longer
    periods of training with potential for hourly rainfall to exceed 2
    inches, although 1 to 2 inch values should be more common.
    Idealized training could allow for some 2 to 3 inch storm totals
    (locally higher) through the late morning from the northern
    Mid-Atlantic coast into far southern New England, although weak
    instability, especially with northern extent, may limit potential
    for higher rates.

    This region of the U.S. has been mostly dry over the past 2-3
    weeks resulting in flash flood guidance values that are generally
    high. However, short term heavy rain could result in localized and
    mainly urban flash flooding with potential rapid pooling of water
    which will coincide with the timing of the morning commute.

    Otto

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8IHKZb3iixly5KCYLW2JT8-EFXx3yTTRETgCh8p2N1Yr-8botCu4_BiSFfCO2UzJ5YyWSw1eAg-u2q-tL5_pAReu054$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BOX...OKX...PHI...

    ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 41787088 41377087 40567241 39897330 39087419
    38247481 37647560 38157624 39517598 40677472
    41527292
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 10:36:06 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 061035
    FFGMPD
    MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-061600-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1557...Corrected
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    535 AM EST Fri Nov 06 2026

    Corrected for change from south to north in first paragraph
    regarding D.C. reference

    Areas affected...portions of northern Mid-Atlantic coast to
    southern New England

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 061026Z - 061600Z

    Summary...Localized and mainly urban flash flooding will be
    possible through 16Z across portions of northern Mid-Atlantic to
    southern New England. High short-term rainfall of about 0.5 to 1.0
    inches in 15 minutes and storm total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
    (locally higher) are expected.

    Discussion...Radar imagery from 10Z showed an expanding region of
    showers and thunderstorms extending from northeastern MD into
    southern NJ, located ahead of a low to mid-level vorticity max
    observed just north of Washington D.C. Another region of storms
    was located over south-central to southeastern VA, associated with
    another low to mid-level vorticity max over the central VA/NC
    border. Both vorticity maxima were tracking to the northeast,
    ahead of an approaching closed low/trough over the Great
    Lakes/Ohio Valley within a modestly diffluent/divergent jet
    pattern aloft. Observed gauges showed approximately 0.5 to 1.0
    inches of rain in 15 minutes associated with stronger
    thunderstorms in Montgomery County, MD and near Petersburg, VA
    over the past 1-2 hours. The environment ahead of an approaching
    cold front contained 500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 1.3 to 1.7 inch PWs
    and effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt (via the 10Z SPC
    mesoanalysis).

    As the vorticity maxima continue to track northeastward through
    16Z, recent RAP forecasts show an increase through late morning of
    the 850 mb flow of 5 to 10 kt above their present speeds of 25-30
    kt from southeastern VA to central NJ. Coverage of
    showers/thunderstorms should increase this morning ahead of the
    two vorticity maxima within the unstable and very moist
    environment, ahead of an approaching cold front to the west.
    Unidirectional flow from the southwest could promote longer
    periods of training with potential for hourly rainfall to exceed 2
    inches, although 1 to 2 inch values should be more common.
    Idealized training could allow for some 2 to 3 inch storm totals
    (locally higher) through the late morning from the northern
    Mid-Atlantic coast into far southern New England, although weak
    instability, especially with northern extent, may limit potential
    for higher rates.

    This region of the U.S. has been mostly dry over the past 2-3
    weeks resulting in flash flood guidance values that are generally
    high. However, short term heavy rain could result in localized and
    mainly urban flash flooding with potential rapid pooling of water
    which will coincide with the timing of the morning commute.

    Otto

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ixXrPtHwSymaM1nf_-HRDMllPvx2yVmBqlNtB9uEYo_rgO0hlwZUhscIdfrJFs8vjUikRpCCT6KWjgFfsfjpKXzttw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BOX...OKX...PHI...

    ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 41787088 41377087 40567241 39897330 39087419
    38247481 37647560 38157624 39517598 40677472
    41527292
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 17:30:44 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 061715
    FFGMPD
    MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-062200-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1559
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1214 PM EST Fri Nov 06 2026

    Areas affected...Coastal Mid-Atlantic States into Southern New
    England

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 061714Z - 062200Z

    Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will repeatedly lift along the
    Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts into this evening with 1-2"/hr
    rain rates. This will produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
    amounts. Flash flooding is possible, especially across urban areas.

    Discussion...The GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB depicts an impressive
    and continuous area of glaciating clouds representing impressive
    updrafts aligned NE to SW from just off the coast of NJ through
    Cape Cod/SE MA. This area is collocated with elevated
    lightning-cast probabilities and a ribbon of elevated MLCAPE above
    500 J/kg. Within this cloud area, a nearly continuous line of
    heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms has developed, with PWs
    above the 90th percentile (above 1.5") overlapping the MLCAPE to
    drive the favorable environment. Recent MRMS estimated hourly
    rainfall has been over 1 inch in the deepest convection.

    The high res HRRR and RRFS are in generally good agreement that
    convective activity will persist through the aftn, with expansion
    and intensification also probable. This is in response to
    persistent thermodynamic advection to the north ahead of a slowly
    advancing cold front, with ascent provided near a wave of low
    pressure and in response to a strengthening jet streak pivoting
    across the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Together, this will
    result in widespread rainfall with repeating echoes traveling SW
    to NE thanks to mean 0-6km winds aligned to both the front and the
    Corfidi vectors. In addition, 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40kts will
    help organize cells into clusters, leading to locally enhanced
    rainfall rates for which the REFS indicates has a 30-40% chance of
    exceeding 1"/hr. The training of these rates could produce 2-3"
    through the aftn, with locally higher amounts where training is
    most prolonged.

    Outside of the rain that has already occurred this morning to
    pre-condition the soils (represented by elevated 0-10cm RSM from
    NASA SPoRT), this area has been dry recently and 0-40cm soil
    moisture is below the 10th-20th percentile in most areas. This
    suggests that most of the rain may be more beneficial than
    problematic. However, locally compromised FFG to 1.5"/3hrs does
    result in a 10-15% chance of exceedance from the REFS, indicating
    at least an isolated flash flood threat will continue, focused
    primarily in urban areas, through the evening.


    Weiss

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_0QyiVJ9jXPzfxx9TFzMCmEV8QiilIHtGSTxJIb1edp5T_gP0POXAXd6X737ASjMSd9y1ppgiGlLwFHQ90BmHI8FGK4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...OKX...PHI...

    ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 42957087 42717042 42507020 42227015 41957025
    41657050 40787185 39817329 39477412 39597459
    40047453 40687370 41427268 42227194 42767135
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 6 18:20:40 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 061455
    FFGMPD
    NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-062100-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1558
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    955 AM EST Fri Nov 06 2026

    Areas affected...Central North Carolina through Coastal New Jersey

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 061500Z - 062100Z

    Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will train ahead of a cold
    front through this afternoon. Rainfall rates may exceed 2"/hr at
    times, which through training could produce 2-4" of rain. Isolated
    instances of flash flooding may result, especially in urban areas.

    Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows clusters
    of thunderstorms associated with dual shortwave impulses lifting
    through the Carolinas and the DelMarVa region. These shortwaves
    are lifting north ahead of a cold front analyzed by WPC, leading
    to locally enhanced convection reflected by pockets of expanding
    glaciation on the Euro day-cloud phase RGB satellite imagery, and
    MRMS 1-hr rainfall within deeper cores as high as 1.5". The
    thermodynamic environment is extremely favorable for heavy rain,
    as PWs in excess of 1.5" (above the 90th percentile) overlaps
    500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a ribbon advecting northeastward from
    the Carolinas.

    During the next few hours, persistent S/SW flow of 20-25 kts at
    850mb will continue to supply these elevated thermodynamics
    northward, and both the recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate a
    corridor of heavy rain will expand from central NC through the
    Tidewater region of VA and into coastal DE/NJ. While the models
    agree on this evolution, this is also supported by intensifying
    ascent driven both by a wave of low pressure lifting along the
    cold front and the sharpening LFQ of a jet streak pivoting across
    the Southern Appalachians. Together, this will help expand
    precipitation, and with 0-6km mean winds aligned to both the cold
    front and the propagation vectors, training of echoes is likely.

    Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr are possible at times (20-30%
    chance from the REFS) which through this training could produce
    axes of 2-4" of rain (>50% chance of at least 3"). A lack of
    recent rain has dropped 0-40cm soil moisture to below the 10th
    percentile, and FFG is consequently elevated. This will limit the
    flash flood risk through this aftn. However, as precipitation
    expands and intensifies, any training of the most intense rain
    rates, especially if they occur across urban areas, could result
    with instances of flash flooding.

    Weiss

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6KhCrK7v6G4gtC69dR0mjdgOK0CloL3_c9c6Q6m7y7juaNE4j3QAyLTsO_kzULFERicI1NENYt78ni-9T4ONLouQZiA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...

    ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

    LAT...LON 39777409 39207416 38077489 36737586 35837657
    35157760 34977851 35117926 35507954 36287893
    37247778 38417640 39217543 39647445
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 09:23:08 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 080922
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-081515-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1560
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    422 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2026

    Areas affected...central to south-central TX

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 080921Z - 081515Z

    Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are likely to increase in
    coverage across central to south-central TX through 15Z with areas
    of repeating and training. Through 15Z, total rainfall of 2 to 4+
    inches will be possible, mainly across the South Texas Plains,
    while locations farther north could see an additional 1 to 2
    inches.

    Discussion...GOES East infrared and lightning imagery Has shown a
    gradual uptick in colder cloud tops in the vicinity of the lower
    Rio Grande Valley over the past 3 hours, associated with showers
    and occasional thunderstorm advancing toward the east. These cells
    were occurring out ahead of a closed mid to upper level low over
    northwestern Mexico, with low level winds from the east and
    southeast along the lower TX coast, helping to transport moisture
    through the Rio Grande Valley. 08Z GPS observations showed that
    precipitable water values have increased a bit since 00Z with 1.4
    inches across the southern Edwards Plateau to 1.9 inches near
    McAllen. However, weak instability of less than 500 J/kg (per 09Z
    SPC mesoanalysis) was limiting rainfall intensities north of a
    roughly Webb County to Corpus Christi Bay line.

    Short term forecasts from the RAP show the closed low continuing
    to slowly edge east this morning with the development of shortwave
    ridging from southern to central TX through 15Z. With this change
    in heights will be the increasing diffluence and jet-forced
    divergence in the upper levels across central to southern TX.
    Meanwhile, continued low level moisture advection into southern TX
    is forecast to allow for the formation of a MLCAPE gradient
    through mid-morning from ~Laredo to just north of Corpus Christi
    Bay with 500-1000 J/kg south of that line.

    Over the few hours, low level convergence is expected to help
    focus a greater concentration of showers/thunderstorms over
    south-central TX near the developing instability gradient with
    repeating and occasional training rounds of heavy rain. The
    environment should allow for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
    (locally higher possible) and potentially 2 to 4+ inches through
    15Z.

    Farther north into the Balcones Escarpment, portions of the region
    have received 1.0 to 2.5 inches over the past 6-12 hours.
    Additional rainfall with hourly totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches may
    impact this region farther north aided by an upslope component to
    the low level flow which could allow for an additional 1 to 2
    inches through 15Z.

    Both regions of TX referenced above will see an isolated threat
    for flash flooding with impacts most likely where overlap of heavy
    rain occurs with urban areas or locations of terrain that are more hydrologically sensitive.

    Otto

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!98nftqCjhhiTFG1f1mUpQe1a5Vkq2EUl2UmccDNgH8lKlRkSctSW-szDiP5wAtw3HI2U12BNpcDn5tCNEQaaotUXW5Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 30549903 30479839 30239818 29519807 28649706
    28119670 27389694 27189761 27159905 27569987
    27970026 28550062 29200075 29880031 30319973
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 14:30:16 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 081430
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-082030-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1561
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    929 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2026

    Areas affected...South Texas...

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

    Valid 081430Z - 082030Z

    SUMMARY...Continued slow eastward drift of strong convergence
    boundary with numerous efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms
    with rates of 2"/hr resulting in additional 2-4" with possible
    localized totals to 6" through 21z. Localized flash flooding will
    be likely.

    DISCUSSION...WV suite shows core of strong (1.5-2.5 standard
    anomaly) closed low continuing to deepen over S Sonora state in
    northwest Mexico with a broad downstream warm-advective pattern
    combined with highly diffluent upper-level jet pattern providing
    large scale ascent through much of the middle to lower Rio Grande
    Valley. Suite also denotes striated high cirrus across N Nuevo
    Leon spreading into Deep South Texas indicative of the exiting of
    the upper-level jet providing further focused entrance ascent
    pattern. This is driving a very strong surface to boundary layer
    response with weak surface cyclone having developed just north of
    BKS. Low level flow has responded with strong easterly to
    southerly flow in advance of a stark convergence axis that drops
    due south from the low through and east of EBG/MFE, while strong
    northeasterly flow out of the remainder of southeast Texas and the
    NW Gulf, further increasing directional and speed convergence
    toward the surface low and boundary. Western Gulf higher theta-E
    air with Tds into the low 70s and sufficient higher temps toward
    the mid-70s and favorable lapse rates aloft support 1000-1500 J/kg
    of SB/MLCAPEs within that effective warm sector.

    Autumn elevated deep layer moisture is about 1.8-1.9" per
    GPS/BLTPW/RAOB analysis is still solidly above average for the
    time of year into the 95-99th percentiles; particularly for the
    lowest layers surface-850mb noted in the LPW/LVT analysis from
    CIRA. As such flux convergence will support 2"+/hr rates and will
    be concentrated along that axis where lower level flow backs from
    NE to E and strengthens to 20kts+. Slowing forward progress will
    allow for increased residency and support a continuation of the
    swath of 2-4" totals toward urban Corpus Christi area but an
    isolated/localized total of 6"+ is not completely out of the
    question and likely to result in flash flooding concerns.

    South of is along the north-south convergence axis; bulk shear
    values throughout the depth are solid with 40-50kts+ will continue
    to support shallow rotating updrafts that will further localize
    isallobaric influenced directional/speed convergence to enhance
    rain rates more locally/smaller scale with slow eastward
    propagation. Narrower updrafts may limit residency time and more
    scattered nature may allow for streaks of 2-4" as far south (as
    the Rio Grande River) potentially affecting the urban corridor
    helping maintain some localized flash flooding potential there as
    well.

    Given upstream favorable diffluent flow but exiting jet support to
    the east, overall advancement will slow and an opportunity for
    some upstream redevelopment (especially along the thermal axis
    left by the initial convective complex across S Webb/Duval
    counties) is possible but should be less effective than the prior
    rounds; but additional rainfall on recently flooded areas only
    prolongs the flooding concerns.

    Gallina

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7rTc0NZlRtRZCqECMlJH_jpqVW60ugzIr7UO2Nc_IuguyaN3EWcFro14q52LFLEj27FaQLG2yE_8LtUk12FtdNuPVVc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 28539751 28109682 27659712 27109728 26509718
    26069706 25819710 25759734 25989800 26959852
    27389920 28259901
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Nov 8 20:14:00 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 082013
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-090200-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1562
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    312 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2026

    Areas affected...Coastal Deep South Texas...

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 082015Z - 090200Z

    SUMMARY...A lull in activity in both coverage and intensity is
    expected but additional scattered, cycles of thunderstorms close
    to the coast are probable with capability of 1.5-2"/hr rates and
    additional localized 2-4" totals remain possible continuing
    localized flash/rapid inundation flooding concerns through
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite continues to depict favorable broad
    large scale ascent pattern over the Lower Rio Grande Valley due to
    broad diffluence even as the stronger jet core entrance region has
    shifted downstream. Weaker ageostrophic flow in the right
    entrance continue to help the solid southeast mean low level
    onshore flow and eventual right branch of the TROWAL further
    downstream toward the Edwards Plateau and Lower Pecos Valley;
    however, the strong surface to boundary layer north to south
    convergence zone from the weak surface low analyzed in Kenedy
    county has shifted to the near coastline proper. Very warm
    western Gulf still helps to maintain surface heating with
    narrowing wedge of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE mainly for Kenedy,
    Willacy and Cameron counties; though RADAR/Visible imagery shows
    strongest convergence is now shifted off shore.

    Given the upstream approaching shortwave energy later tonight, the
    convergence boundary is expected to waffle a bit with some small
    retrograding potential through the later evening hours. Slightly
    weaker onshore flow and veered surface to boundary layer winds
    toward ESE and SE may be more oblique to the
    convergence/instability axis that combined with frictional
    convergence may allow for additional scattered thunderstorm
    development through the evening. Total moisture remains similar
    but flux will be reduced that rates should be a bit less toward
    1.5-2"/hr and slow cell motions may allow for some residency for
    localized 2-4" additional totals, but there is some uncertainty
    for coverage for high confidence. This should only remain a risk
    for areas recently saturated/flooded with this morning's
    convective activity with best/highest probabilities in the deepest
    South Texas, but have encompassed many of the areas further north
    where FFGs have been compromised and scattered more elevated cells
    may blossom in the strong isentropic ascent/dynamic environment.
    So given the uncertainty of coverage and if the storm's will even
    be overland, flash flooding is considered possible and localized
    through 02z.

    Gallina

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4RDYZ1Jyh7i9XUJsJgLTfkT-cK3cRINiLXG41G0EInvAKN6jQNQqiTxGoaFPdnXCsJnCcGNCUQkFOpnQT3VGL3sHuQA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 28209742 28119704 27819699 27719709 27409727
    26919732 26399716 25939710 25849762 26399803
    27059851 27399900 27729881 28019797
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 08:00:40 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 090800
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-091315-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1563
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    259 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2026

    Areas affected...south-central to southern TX

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 090757Z - 091315Z

    Summary...Isolated flash or renewed flooding concerns will be
    possible across portions of south-central to southern TX through
    at least 13Z. Repeated rounds of heavy rain with peak hourly
    rainfall over 1 inch will be likely. Farther south, potential will
    exist for higher hourly values over 2 inches near the lower TX
    coast.

    Discussion...GOES East water vapor imagery from 0730Z showed the
    presence of a subtle shortwave trough approaching the middle to
    lower Rio Grande Valley from northeastern Mexico with increasingly
    diffluent flow just ahead of the feature. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms were located ahead of this feature over Mexico into
    south-central TX, with individual cell movements toward the
    northeast at an average of 20-30 kt. The coverage of these cells
    has gradually increased over the past 1-2 hours.

    South-central to southern TX continued to have high precipitable
    water values of 1.3 to 1.9 inches via recent GPS data (highest to
    south) but instability was limited. 07Z SPC mesoanalysis data
    showed MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg as far north as the southern fringes
    of the Edwards Plateau with 500-1000 J/kg over the lower Rio
    Grande Valley to South Padre Island.

    Expectations over the next 3-6 hours are for numerous
    showers/thunderstorms to continue tracking across south-central TX
    with occasional areas of brief training, supporting hourly
    rainfall over 1 inch, but less than 2 inches. Farther south, the
    potential will exist for shallow, warm-topped but efficient
    showers to track in more of SSW to NNE motion with upstream
    development and training due to the southeasterly low level inflow
    into the region from the moist/unstable waters of the western
    Gulf. Should this occur, hourly rainfall over 2 inches may occur,
    mainly along and east of US-77 south of the Corpus Christi metro.

    Concerns for isolated flash/rapid inundation flooding or renewed
    areas of flooding across locations impacted by heavy rain on
    Sunday will exist over the next several hours through at least
    13Z.

    Otto

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aLVEfTBZ3VO5KE4OOAk433uPtYGeundyshkw2YZmrTskQAGOlo6gXtxpXgNyJdfj2zWkuOnA25zsJrqQm-u1NU-O1E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 29719852 29549810 28839769 28709772 28089758
    27689708 27239722 26799723 26359708 25969705
    25809718 25729755 26089887 26669946 27429981
    27930018 28230043 28530062 28740059 28970052
    29210036 29390014 29569971 29659914
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 13:07:42 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 091307
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-091900-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1564
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    806 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2026

    Areas affected...South Texas...

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 091310Z - 091900Z

    SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate to occassionally heavy rainfall
    continues. Embedded convective cells, especially deep south, may
    support up to 2"/hr locally. Given saturated soils, localized
    flash flooding will remain possible (more probable further south).

    DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of slowly filling closed
    low over the Big Bend of W TX, slowly wobbling east-northeastward.
    The favorable broad diffluent southwesterly flow ahead of it
    continues to provide favorable ascent pattern, though strongest
    divergence in the left exit is crossing the middle Texas Coastal
    Plain at this time but will be reducing in stronger ascent through
    the morning into early afternoon.

    Low level flow continues to peak from diurnal onshore maximum with
    strong southeasterly flow at 20-30kts at 850mb, generally
    collocated with the core of the deep layer moisture axis. Total
    PWats of 1.8" (KBRO RAOB) to RAP analysis at near 2". CIRA LPW
    shows bulk of that is below 850mb (.8-.9") and while surface
    heating is less than yesterday, it still supports 1000 J/kg of
    SBCAPEs into the southern tip of Texas, though with the slow
    isentropic ascent through the region, MUCAPEs of 500+ J/kg have
    nosed well up the Rio Grande Valley into the southern Edwards
    Plateau. Given the deep southwesterly diffluence and dPVA,
    scattered ascent and shallow convective elements will develop in
    that MUCAPE axis and translate eastward through South-Central TX.
    Rates of .5-.75"/hr will be scattered through saturated soil areas
    were FFG values are reduced at or below 1"/1 or 3hrs and may
    result in continuing ongoing slower rise flooding in the region
    with a spotty rapid rise near any stronger convective elements.

    However, the greater concern for flash flooding will remains
    across far Deep South Texas, where the stronger heating is
    expected and CAPEs are expected to rise over 1500 J/kg. 13z
    surface analysis continues to show a weak surface low over E
    Brooks county along the strong/persistent NW to SSE surface
    convergence trof across the area (between EBG/HRL, LRD/HBV,
    FTN/COT and DRT/UVA). Stronger easterly surface flow off the NW
    Gulf in the southeast quadrant of the low will be that extra
    convergence necessary for stronger vertical ascent and therefore
    greater rain rates, likely between 1.5-2"/hr, though occasional
    localized 2.5"+ are not out of the realm of possibility. Bulk
    shear remains sufficient for rotating updrafts to reduce forward
    cell motions, therefore increasing residency. While Hi-Res CAMs
    continue to suggest best convergence and rainfall total potential
    remain just offshore of the tip of Texas; a few pockets of 2-4"
    totals may result in flash flooding given area of southern coastal
    Texas has been saturated from yesterday's heavy rainfall making
    flash flooding possible through the early afternoon period.

    Gallina

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!65DKfoGU-L8cxBEgWUVYwttEt11VqLn5JyLYdXJjyBkA9ZrK-AuvaxCk1NDnJy7Qci9eXLrvnA6yj6tcV6spqrviymo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 30140082 30109936 29639861 29009814 28929705
    28279656 27969667 27489711 26889716 26229688
    25769713 25959780 26109857 26569937 27299964
    27910017 28630062 29450125
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Nov 9 18:12:16 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 091812
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-100000-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1565
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    111 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2026

    Areas affected...Edwards Plateau to portions of Texas Hill
    Country...

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 091810Z - 100000Z

    SUMMARY...Shallow, but efficient convective cores in proximity to
    the closed low will cross compromised/saturated soils that even
    limited .5-1"/hr rates may result in localized rapid-rise/flash
    flooding concern through evening.

    DISCUSSION...Prolonged moderate rainfall environment for the last
    few days with persistent shallow/over-running convective elements
    will be coming to a close through the overnight period. However,
    the closed low that has been driving the favorable pattern
    continues a slow northeast march out of the Lower Pecos River
    toward the Concho Valley through the evening but it continues to
    rapidly weaken/fill as it does so. However, along the downshear
    edge, strong diffluence of the upper-level pattern exist
    supporting a wedge like low-topped shield of ascent through the
    Edwards Plateau. RAP analysis along with VWP at KDFX shows
    weakening WAA pattern but still solid 20-25kts of low level flow
    at the nose of the surface to 850mb narrowing axis of enhanced
    Western Gulf moisture plume. CIRA LPW suggests values of .75"
    through the sfc-850mb layer and flux values still above 125
    kg/m/s. Instability remains limited but at 250-500 J/kg of
    MUCAPE, there is continued support for widely scattered to
    scattered vertical ascent with pulses of convergence in the
    southeasterly WAA stream; supported by the diffluence aloft.
    Ascent will be sufficient with the convergence to support
    efficient rainfall produce cores intermittently through the
    evening. This may even be further concentrated near the inner
    core of the upper-low, where slow/near stationary SHaRS (subtle
    heavy rainfall signature) cell motions may allow for increased
    accumulation. Rates of .5-1"/hr may support highly localized
    spots of 1.5"+.

    Hydrologically, the area's soils have become compromised through
    fairly deep saturation due to the prolonged nature of moderate
    rainfall over the past few days. Ratios have been nearing 100%,
    so any additional rainfall should be converted to run-off. As
    denoted, much of the area has sub-1" FFG values generally centered
    along 100W from Concho to Zavala county, with a few locations
    where values are less than .75"/hr at 3 or even 6 hours.
    Probability suggests that at least one of these shallow convective
    cores will at some point align with the low FFG to suggest
    scattered incidents of flash flooding (though not extreme
    rises..due to limited overall totals) will remain possible through
    this evening.

    Gallina

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4BDGL2ZZJ3Dq9O5AdQm9vaOktGuS7MtJP-GKcU4QoFiPyp2tqTapwol5oAIXDU-H9l6oLhsiRvUXbMWT8DtFTUtEbmI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 31299964 31149904 30709843 30169827 29649842
    28999930 28709995 28680038 28760058 29160082
    29380113 29630146 29910163 30360150 31020107
    31250045
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 13:40:44 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 111340
    FFGMPD
    ILZ000-IAZ000-111738-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1566
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    839 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

    Areas affected...eastern Iowa into northern/central Illinois

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 111338Z - 111738Z

    Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists from the
    Cedar Rapids area east-southeast into portions of Illinois over
    the next 2-4 hours (through 17Z/11a central).

    Discussion...A small cluster of convection has materialiazed in
    east-central Iowa with local training noted near the Cedar Rapids
    area. The cells are being maintained by 1) convergent flow in the
    850-700mb layer, 2) steep lapse rates (7.5 C/km) from cool air
    aloft, and 3) a vigorous mid-level shortwave trough moving through
    the region. The orientation of the axis of convergence (and
    resultant convection) is parallel to westerly steering flow aloft,
    allowing for local training and spots of rain rates exceeding 1.5
    inch/hr, which is also surpassing local FFG thresholds. Flash
    flood potential exists in the near term.

    Over time, models/CAMs and observations hint at persistence of
    this cluster eastward into northern IL through at least 17Z.
    Local/limited training of cells will pose a continued flash flood
    threat as local FFG exceedance (and 1+ inch/hr rain rates) is
    possible. This threat should remain isolated though. Cells
    should reach the Peoria/Bloomington/Peru region of IL through
    16-17Z.

    Cook

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7C-jHYuCels7hydeUvze13-7HgnCRce0rA9DaCf4PXYfi8kMkMdfXhrJpfaiYRvyLCfRNq1yth0b8q4Zwnazv36yL4U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ILX...LOT...

    ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 42429041 42048876 41318813 40578865 40729018
    41269214 42419207
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Nov 11 13:42:18 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 111341
    FFGMPD
    ILZ000-IAZ000-111738-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1566
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    840 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

    Areas affected...eastern Iowa into northern/central Illinois

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 111338Z - 111738Z

    Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists from the
    Cedar Rapids area east-southeast into portions of Illinois over
    the next 2-4 hours (through 17Z/11a central).

    Discussion...A small cluster of convection has materialized in
    east-central Iowa with local training noted near the Cedar Rapids
    area. The cells are being maintained by 1) convergent flow in the
    850-700mb layer, 2) steep lapse rates (7.5 C/km) from cool air
    aloft, and 3) a vigorous mid-level shortwave trough moving through
    the region. The orientation of the axis of convergence (and
    resultant convection) is parallel to westerly steering flow aloft,
    allowing for local training and spots of rain rates exceeding 1.5
    inch/hr, which is also surpassing local FFG thresholds. Flash
    flood potential exists in the near term.

    Over time, models/CAMs and observations hint at persistence of
    this cluster eastward into northern IL through at least 17Z.
    Local/limited training of cells will pose a continued flash flood
    threat as local FFG exceedance (and 1+ inch/hr rain rates) is
    possible. This threat should remain isolated though. Cells
    should reach the Peoria/Bloomington/Peru region of IL through
    16-17Z.

    Cook

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7003OECdPJLoBfZ-wj0OxHD7Dn8Xw69aIHn0NCA1sbIVUN_JqtKa9pztxkfoLMQoMGBgehCfkajsQYryms5JT5fPezs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ILX...LOT...

    ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 42429041 42048876 41318813 40578865 40729018
    41269214 42419207
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Nov 12 16:54:08 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 121653
    FFGMPD
    CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-122252-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1567
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1153 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

    Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New
    York State

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 121652Z - 122252Z

    Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible
    through the early evening.

    Discussion...Scattered convection was gradually increasing in
    coverage late this morning (as of 1135a eastern), with lightning
    strikes now noted near convection near Harrisburg/Reading, PA and
    in NJ just south of New York City. Storms are likely responding
    to an advancing mid-level wave, providing cooling aloft and
    sufficient instability for robust updraft development. Meanwhile,
    low-level easterlies across the discussion area (just south of a
    warm/occluded front from Reading to NYC) was maintaining upper 50s
    F dewpoints and supporting destabilization into the discussion
    area (500-1000 Jkg SBCAPE per SPC Mesoanalyses). These trends
    suggest that thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
    through the afternoon hours.

    These cells will pose a conditional risk of flash flooding
    (particularly in urban/poor drainage) areas through at least 6p
    eastern (23Z). While storm motions will be relatively quick due
    to fast flow aloft (30-35 knots), any cells that can manage to
    backbuild, train, or merge will likely promote areas of 1 inch/hr
    rain rates (as currently occurring just south of NYC along the
    Jersey Shoreline vicinity). These cells may make it into western
    Long Island in the next couple hours, but will have to overcome
    slightly more stable low-level conditions in that vicinity in
    order to do so.

    The overall scenario will support isolated instance of flash
    flooding at times especially along the I-95 corridor from
    Philadelphia into New York City through the early evening.

    Cook

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ZaYC91azsowPR5gf3JmTC0VMDi4ZnoqMtbAhHBr9t55dFWaSrpp0B8g4sVcKSahtEl17veBw-i5rdiO8rPzHOvesNM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

    ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 41397443 41287335 40837266 40157299 39427392
    39327510 39727597 39917669 40827716 41147600
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Nov 13 17:17:38 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 131717
    FFGMPD
    CAZ000-132300-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1568
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1216 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

    Areas affected...Central California

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 131715Z - 132300Z

    SUMMARY...A strong cold front may cause localized urban and small
    stream flash flooding over the next few hours as it moves across
    central California. Rates to 3/4 inch are possible.

    DISCUSSION...A strong cold front is making its way ashore central
    and northern California this morning. Embedded within the main
    line are convective cells, with MUCAPE values to 250 J/kg in some
    areas. PWATs with the front are increasing to around 1 inch,
    meaning the convective cells will have a notable amount of
    atmospheric moisture to draw from to convert to heavy rainfall.
    Soils across this region are generally a bit below climatological
    average for moisture amounts, so a good amount of this rainfall
    will soak into the soils and not pose a flash flooding threat.

    Instability will remain elevated into this afternoon as the front
    pushes inland through the Sacramento area and up into the
    foothills of the central and northern Sierra Nevada Mountains.
    CAMs guidance agrees that some amount of elevated convection will
    persist into this afternoon, supporting a continued heavy rain
    potential.

    The primary flash flood threat will be urban and small stream
    flooding, as any heavier rains around 1/2 inch per hour should
    only persist for an hour or so. The urban threat will be in the
    Bay Area and Sacramento, while the small stream threat primarily
    exists in the suburbs as well as the foothills of the Sierra
    Nevada.

    Wegman

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_wxkFYk3xXnf0wxbPXQIAswIsz2OtVoq9Npfu-RSc3o1AMNOqssctmkGa0CYN2IwB-b2YH6GvNlEwQRrQ6iPhFdjjBk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MTR...STO...

    ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

    LAT...LON 39392136 39052092 38542051 37982026 37592066
    37382113 37072142 36962220 37842287 38382298
    38772288 39232239 39332188
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)